Enmax EasyMax - Fixed Vs. Variable

[Disoblige]

Sorry Mike, but you're wrong. But only matters if you care about saving a few bucks. Kinda a wash in the summer time, but a gamble as you head into winter. Talking about gas here.

Floating + $0.99 is the same or more over the past couple months vs. Fixed.

[mr2mike]

Since I have to see the data, here's the plot. Can add whatever anyone else wants.
Not adding weather because I'll just put a randomize # in at that point.

Basically, are you betting that AECO forecast will continue up?
Nice sweeping arc on that forecast but it's historically not that. Spike up and down.
Everyone's own call and if you do go fixed, get out before March like Disoblige. Cancel Jan 30.

[killramos]

Your AECO strip is probably 25 cents light versus current

[ExtraSlow]

Looks like the trend lines are converging. So after about mid 2025 variable with its 0.99 fee will be less than aeco. Then sell the gas back to the pipeline at a profit! I love arbitrage.

Nate silver approves.

[mr2mike]

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Your AECO strip is probably 25 cents light versus current

Updated chart using gas alberta. Com

[ZenOps]

C'mon this is Alberta, to speculate of price of natural gas even as an amateur, is like provincial pastime.

Even calculated that it takes two nickels to run my furnace for one cycle. Its also the most important thing ever. Heat.

[cyra1ax]

Thanks for the charts Mr Mike. Only question I have is if the Enmax variable rate is the same as the RRO, or is there additional profit bucketed in there? Only reason I'm asking is cause I only saw a max of $4.10/GJ on my February/March bills, where you have it tickling $5 in that period. Only caveat is that I'm not with Enmax.

[sabad66]

This guy seems smart and he claims he locked in gas for his home:

I’m leaning towards doing it as well but I’ll decide in December when my atco contract expires

[mr2mike]

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Thanks for the charts Mr Mike. Only question I have is if the Enmax variable rate is the same as the RRO, or is there additional profit bucketed in there? Only reason I'm asking is cause I only saw a max of $4.10/GJ on my February/March bills, where you have it tickling $5 in that period. Only caveat is that I'm not with Enmax.

I am not sure. The values I was pulling are in the Enmax area plot that any Enmax customer can view.
I wouldn't be surprised because there is an endless amount of service fees from Enmax. If you have a 3rd party vendor they're probably flowing through a fee to you.

[Disoblige]

The reason why it is a no brainer is because you have your previous REAL LIFE billing to look at. If you are already paying the same price as fixed OR HIGHER in July/August, then what do you expect to happen from Oct to Feb?
Stop looking at plots and start looking at your actual bills to see what you paid and see if you are willing to take the risk to stay floating.

As I said, you gotta evaluate it but this is the first time ever I "locked in". Quoted because you're not really locked in at all, just protecting yourself from spikes during the winter and you have to give 30 days notice to switch (if you are on ENMAX). If you feel comfortable taking the risk, then you do you. But we will definitely know "woulda, shoulda, coulda" by January.

Floating Example:

Already paying over $4.50/GJ.

[cyra1ax]

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I am not sure. The values I was pulling are in the Enmax area plot that any Enmax customer can view.
I wouldn't be surprised because there is an endless amount of service fees from Enmax. If you have a 3rd party vendor they're probably flowing through a fee to you.

Thanks.
Any chance you would be willing to add in the regulated rates as another series?
Values are about halfway down the page here, I believe the Direct Energy/Atco ones are applicable to southern Alberta.
https://ucahelps.alberta.ca/regulated-rates.aspx

[LilDrunkenSmurf]

I locked in my gas @ 4.09. Considering floating has the 0.99 fee, that means that if floating hits >3.10, then my locked in, is a better deal.
It worked out for me on electricity @ 5.99.

[killramos]

I naturally hedge this shit by being overexposed to gas prices in my portfolio

I make way more at $5-6AECO than Enmax will ever charge me haha

[ExtraSlow]

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I naturally hedge this shit by being overexposed to gas prices in my portfolio

I make way more at $5-6AECO than Enmax will ever charge me haha

Pretty much this for me too. My entire career and house value is highly leveraged to natural gas price. Enmax is the least of my worries.

[vengie]

Over the past year I've been averaging ~$3.2/gj, with one major outlier in March of 2020 where it spiked to $4.04.

Current fixed rate is $4.09/gj.

Seems like in the short term fixed rate power and floating gas is the way to go.

[Asian_defender]

Can someone with more wrinkles in their brain explain this? Is it more fear mongering? I don't understand the trend enough to make an accurate judgement
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nat...urge-1.6175531

[Twin_Cam_Turbo]

I locked in natty gas at 4.09 without the 0.99 cent fee floating had. Seemed like a no brainer.

[sabad66]

Could it be that the lack of investment into O&G over the last 6-7 years cuz of the downturn is going to eventually cause a supply shortage? Or is that more on the oil side of things?

[ExtraSlow]

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Can someone with more wrinkles in their brain explain this? Is it more fear mongering? I don't understand the trend enough to make an accurate judgement
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nat...urge-1.6175531

It's gone up because supply and storage as marginally lower than previous years, and there is the potential for price spikes if the weather is very cold across much of north america. The long-trem outlook is not for any kid of shortage or supply issue, and reasonably moderate prices, but there is a big potential of short term price spikes.

I personally don't think it's worth locking in, but hey, whatever you gotta do.

[pheoxs]

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Over the past year I've been averaging ~$3.2/gj, with one major outlier in March of 2020 where it spiked to $4.04.

Current fixed rate is $4.09/gj.

Seems like in the short term fixed rate power and floating gas is the way to go.

That's historical though. We are going into a winter after a pandemic that'll be roughly 2 years at that point. Energy prices are spiking up in general, a number of projects/maintenance likely delayed by the pandemic, and inflation is hitting record levels. It's not hard to think things will spike up in the midst of winter when we use the most gas. It's important to remember that if gas averages below 4.09$ for 9 months of the year but is above that for Dec/Jan/Feb then you'll likely average out to spend more floating because of those months consuming a lot more.