Enmax EasyMax - Fixed Vs. Variable

[Disoblige]

I locked in gas. It is a no brainer to lock in. I also locked in for 3 years.

Why you ask? Because locking in doesn't mean anything. You can still switch back to floating with 30 days notice if you want. It's not like it's a mortgage or cell phone contract. Locking it in protects you from those big swings, and you can just go back to floating again in March/April if prices start going down. Especially now when it isn't even winter yet and things are likely going to get worse. Switching between locked and fixed is the way to go. My buddy has a locked rate of $3.79/GJ I believe from earlier this spring.

As can you see in the thread, I asked this last month. I ended up locking in with ENMAX a couple weeks later. I will likely go back to floating by giving notice in March or late February.

[suntan]

The issue is the 30 day notice. So once you notice prices going back down, you're still paying the higher price for that billing cycle. That's how they get ya.

[Disoblige]

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The issue is the 30 day notice. So once you notice prices going back down, you're still paying the higher price for that billing cycle. That's how they get ya.

How is that worse than staying floating over the winter when you know the floating prices right now in August/September are the same as fixed or higher? Seems like a better risk reward to go fixed than wing it over the winter. There is low chance it will go lower, so...

I stayed floating last year because gas prices were low and no where near the fixed costs. But this time around it is different. I rather save some money and spend it on +15 lunches.

[killramos]

Because they have factored all that into the fixed price they are offering.

They, being the people with more information than we do. They who have locked in purchase contracts well in advance. Also they who ultimately get to set the floating rates to ensure a healthy margin for themselves.

It’s not that going fixed will necessarily work better or worse in any given month, but that in aggregate over a long period of time they get to lock in a profit on offering that fixed product at a premium.

[ZenOps]

But: Gas traders and forecaster only know about gas. They may not have factored in the massive amount of money printing in the last year, noone probably could have forseen it. Its always a comparison of one asset class to another. I'm still on track for $80/hour not being enough for Rob Anders to shine my shoes in the next three decades.

At the very least, whatever commodity asset had a forward looking chart pre-covid - you probably should just tack on at least 30% as money printing now. Or if it happens to be a consumable, same price but 30% shrinkflation.

Shoulda bought Bored Apes.

[pheoxs]

Wasn't it a few years ago during a bad deep freeze that natural gas rates went to 10$+ ... pretty sure one month of that covers any possible overhead from being on fixed the rest of the time. Summer rates are lower but when you use 1GJ in a month does it really matter?

End of the day in winter I know I'll only ever pay 1$ or maybe 2$ per GJ extra since there's the 0.99$ fee. On variable you can pay a lot more if it spikes significantly. Given our fucked weather lately .... ehhh probably going to be a shit winter.

[ZenOps]

I'm pretty sure some gas analyst is looking at these late summer rates and is having some sort of seizure. Hurricane season isn't close to being over either.

Technically there is no limit to how high it can get, just like Texas electricity rates. Everyone just assumes that since it never happened before in their lifetime, it will never happen. Requiem for an earthquake.

[suntan]

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Because they have factored all that into the fixed price they are offering.

They, being the people with more information than we do. They who have locked in purchase contracts well in advance. Also they who ultimately get to set the floating rates to ensure a healthy margin for themselves.

It’s not that going fixed will necessarily work better or worse in any given month, but that in aggregate over a long period of time they get to lock in a profit on offering that fixed product at a premium.

What this very smart man said.

There's basically no way to arbitrage the prices. They offer fixed rates to make you feel better.

[ExtraSlow]

Next you guys are going to tell me that extended warranties are a poor value.

[Disoblige]

Simply put, for 2021 prices in Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb are likely going to be higher than floating. Locked in at $4.09 and telling ENMAX to change me back to floating sometime in early Feb.

Now if you tell me you're just lazy to call in and make the change twice a year, then OK.

If you look at July/August prices, you're paying ~$4.60/GJ. Already over.

[pheoxs]

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Next you guys are going to tell me that extended warranties are a poor value.

I think a better comparison would be most vehicles similar to yours having major issues at 100k. And yours is at 90k and you still have an option to buy extended warranty for only the time frame you want it.

[firebane]

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Simply put, for 2021 prices in Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb are likely going to be higher than floating. Locked in at $4.09 and telling ENMAX to change me back to floating sometime in early Feb.

Now if you tell me you're just lazy to call in and make the change twice a year, then OK.

You can make the change on their website in your underwear while listening to Justin Bieber

[killramos]

If only there was some kind of… market, where you could buy and sell future contracts for natural gas to marth out these sorts of things relative to today’s floating price.

Oh well.

[Disoblige]

All good, it's all penny pinching anyways.

[suntan]

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You can make the change on their website in your underwear while listening to Justin Bieber

Hey how did you know what I was doing last night.

[zechs]

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All good, it's all penny pinching anyways.

Beyond has a habit of getting very weird about savings at the extreme margins.

[Disoblige]

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Beyond has a habit of getting very weird about savings at the extreme margins.

$0.17 cents to open and close your garage door. THINK OF THE PENNIES!
(disclosure: that was on "So Freakin' Cheap" TV show on TLC)

[suntan]

It's the ZenOps in each of us.

[mr2mike]

I don't see how this is a "no brainer". Seems like variable will be fine.
One spike and that's what they want you to hear and buy into the fixed.
All the while I'm riding less than fixed every other month.

[mr2mike]