In hindsight, the double points for the last three races wouldn't have made a difference anyways, because its been a Merc 1-2 equally for both drivers, so we'd still be in the position we are in now. 17 point lead for Hamilton with one race where double points could make a difference. Yes, we wouldn't have foreseen Ham/Ros splitting 1-2 equally when the rule was decided on, but regardless, we'd be in the exact same position we are now.
There has only been 1 race all year where a Merc wasn't in the Top 2 places, and even then they were 3rd.. with Lewis (in Hungary). I think it would take a wackjob to bet against Lewis winning the WDC.
I'm looking at it this way... Nico hasn't won back to back races all season (or his F1 career for that matter). He won in Brazil, he isn't winning in Abu Dhabi. Seems perfectly reasonable to me.