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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #21
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    Originally posted by ExtraSlow
    Yes, to differentiate from people who believe that the earth is warming due to a "natural cycle". That's a pretty common belief.
    This is a pretty good read as to why there are differing beliefs on scientific issues.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1098802...s-biggest-fail

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    http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-oil...nd-2015-4?r=US

    England discovers more oil, because thats exactly the kind of news the financial world wants to hear right now.

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    Originally posted by nzwasp
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-oil...nd-2015-4?r=US

    England discovers more oil, because thats exactly the kind of news the financial world wants to hear right now.
    That is only an estimate though 50-100 billion barrels with 5-15% recoverable. Headline makes it sound much different.

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    Well $52/barrel oil can't be hurting this province that badly, Fort Mac is busy as usual. 30 minute wait for timmies in the morning? No, but I've never scene such a shortage of parking at Syncrude and even with the new overpass system finished the highway was still packed. Same with hotels, they are all full.

    In other news, CNN appears to think Canada's economy is imploding:

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/13/inve...html?iid=HP_LN

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    Federally, i think the oil and gas downturn is estimated to affect revenues by ~5 billion dollars?

    Of a 350 billion dollar budget.

    I think we will find a way to limp on
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1
    Well $52/barrel oil can't be hurting this province that badly, Fort Mac is busy as usual. 30 minute wait for timmies in the morning? No, but I've never scene such a shortage of parking at Syncrude and even with the new overpass system finished the highway was still packed. Same with hotels, they are all full.

    In other news, CNN appears to think Canada's economy is imploding:

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/13/inve...html?iid=HP_LN
    Syncrude is in the middle of a turnaround. Everywhere is packed lol.

    Can't wait for the airport shit show on Thursday, soooo glad the put a NEXUS line in.

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    I don't know why but I found these stat's interesting so I thought I would share.

    http://link.reuters.com/jek54w#sthash.IzcUSXzz.dpuf

    Source article: http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/..._Turning_Point

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    Well aside from a reserved lol at the title anyone have some insight on what is driving today's surge?

    Did i miss something?
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

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  9. #29
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    well its numbers day isnt it? ... but the weekly drop isnt happening. so im assuming no news is good news?

    but its also contract expiry week... so that could do it too. either way, im not complaining, since i was holding a few losers that expire this week... now im holding a a couple less

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    Some news that I would consider minor about a drop in North America Onshore supply. Haven't heard anything structural, so it's my opinion that it's all noise in the data at this point. People are looking so hard for signs of a recovery, they will jump in with both feet at the smallest news.

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    Originally posted by killramos
    Well aside from a reserved lol at the title anyone have some insight on what is driving today's surge?

    Did i miss something?
    Wednesday is the day the DOE releases the inventory numbers.

    There was an estimated inventory build of 4.1 MMB, but the build was only 1.3 MMB. That is the biggest reason why crude spiked IMHO. Everyone watches those numbers. I believe this is the highest crude price in 2015 so far at over $55 USD. Refinery utilization is also at the highest rate in the last few months.

    Last week, however, the build was 10.95MMB which was the highest in 14 years (expected 3.4 MMB).

    I have an optimistic view on it all. Hedge funds are starting to buy back in as well, which is a good sign. News and speculation is a huge driver.

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    My take on the inventory numbers are that a smaller build is good news, but it's not major news. Still, people were looking for any encouraging signs, and this is one.
    An actual crude inventory draw would be nice, and I assume those are coming through summer.

    My opinion is that we don't want the bad news to stop too soon, or there will not be enough projects shelved and companies hurt to truly make a structural shift in our ability to supply oil.

    On longer timeframes, oil price does respond rationally to supply and demand factors. It's just hard to see that because of the short-term volatility.

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    My guess would be a pre-emptive guerilla assualt on Kiev by hired forces. That would signal higher oil.
    Earth is a pink frosted doughnut, and not a glazed cake doughnut.

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    ...
    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 01:28 AM.

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    More storage space probably makes sense, although that's a stop-gap at best. Could smooth out some of the volatility from refinery outages at least.

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    ...
    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 01:28 AM.

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    In computing terms, the strategic reserve is only a buffer.

    You need the buffer, but beyond a certain size its inefficient. In a perfect system you have an absolutely tiny buffer and use the majority of your efforts towards making the rest of the system better.

    In that way, the US strategic petroleum reserve is quite inefficient. You can always look at the oil reserves in the ground in Saudi Arabia as the buffer, so why do they bother to pump it out of the ground, to ship it to North America and put it back into the ground, and occasionally to pump it out of the ground in North America, to ship it to a strategic reserve in China?

    Mistrust mostly.
    Earth is a pink frosted doughnut, and not a glazed cake doughnut.

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    Discussing longer term price of oil, and the profitability of various North American oil and gas plays, here's some info I got at a presentation from Peters and co this morning.

    Average "break-even" price for large US oil plays is $69/bbl. A group of the best plays is $60/bbl break-even price. Very few larger plays are below that.

    Current payout periods on gas plays in Canada are around 4 years, and the same for oil plays at current costs and prices. With a 15% reduction in capital costs, that drops to around 3 years, which is hardly compelling. That 15% may be tough to sustain overall as well.

    I think I had made this point previously, but on longer time horizons, companies behave rationally, and delay or cancel projects that don't have favourable economics. This tells me that prices must rise to the point that producers are making acceptable profits on these major plays.
    Although there is some hangover of production from existing projects who can use "point-forward" economics, that too has to hit decline eventually.

    So, I'm comforted, although the next 12 months may still be very rocky as we slowly work through partially completed projects and companies acting irrationally in desperation.

  19. #39
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    To bring this back from the dead, I'm assuming oil is tanking due to greece? Wti was hovering pretty close to $60usd/barrel for a while, but just had a huge drop yesterday.

    Even wholesale gasoline and diesel has shit the bed... Even though gas spiked in Edmonton yesterday 10c/L

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1
    Even though gas spiked in Edmonton yesterday 10c/L
    To me that is such a double standard when it comes to gas prices. The gas stations are the first to bring the price of gasoline/diesel up the moment you hear of an increase in crude, but they are the last to actually bring it down when the prices go down. Their excuse? Oh we bought this gas a few months ago so we have to make our money. So frustrating.

    I'm not entirely sure on the regulation there but it sounds like they have us by the balls and the gas stations know it.

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