$30 barrel oil?

[ZenOps]

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You must have been one of the test subjects.

"Scientists discover renewable energy source in mediocre white men’s confidence"

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/05...ens-confidence

Good find!

[ExtraSlow]

Well the world has responded with a yawn to all the SA stuff. The brent crude price chart is positively boring once you zoom out:

[JRSC00LUDE]

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You must have been one of the test subjects.

"Scientists discover renewable energy source in mediocre white men’s confidence"

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2018/05...ens-confidence

Toma your smug superiority around your climate and electoral knowledge could power all of Calgary so watch where you throw your stones.

[rage2]

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Well the numbers were increasing steadily through the 80's and then stabilized in the 90's. If you line it up with the phasing out of CFCs it would seem that the damaged was contained.

The stabilization happened before the reduction came into effect.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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The stabilization happened before the reduction came into effect.

You're the only person on this forum no one will call stupid when you propose alternative points of view to the orthodoxy. Enjoy it.

[rage2]

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You're the only person on this forum no one will call stupid when you propose alternative points of view to the orthodoxy. Enjoy it.

Just watch everyone call me stupid in this thread now.

To counterpoint my own point, NASA's data is only a yearly max area and min ozone snapshot of a single worst day. So I'm also incorrectly drawing relationships between CFC and Ozone with incomplete data. That's my smart comment of the day.

[revelations]

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Well the world has responded with a yawn to all the SA stuff. The brent crude price chart is positively boring once you zoom out:

That just tells me that the big speculators have moved on from OG into other sectors. Back in 2010 had this happened, it would have been silly season.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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Just watch everyone call me stupid in this thread now.

To counterpoint my own point, NASA's data is only a yearly max area and min ozone snapshot of a single worst day. So I'm also incorrectly drawing relationships between CFC and Ozone with incomplete data. That's my smart comment of the day.

No one arguing any point here is doing it with complete data, at least some of us can admit they don't know it ALL hahaha

[Tik-Tok]

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No one arguing any point here is doing it with complete data, at least some of us can admit they don't know it ALL hahaha

https://forums.beyond.ca/threads/411...nge-discussion

[JRSC00LUDE]

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Yeah, but then there's actual scientists and statisticians who have most of the complete data (accumulated to date), saying we're probably fucked, and still people don't believe them.

Valid comment based on our current understanding and ability.

What I don't believe is that our national approach is in any way appropriate, let alone effective. Taxing the fuck out of us and fracturing our economy will never change any other Country's actions. If you want to fuck our economy, do it by ending trade with the the world's largest offenders till they literally clean up their act. Limiting pollution is great. Our Leader's approach to it is, like most Government initiatives, is inefficient and inept. As said before, our system is broken.

[Buster]

I heard since there is a new thread about cliamte change, that discussing it in this thread gives you AIDS.

[Tik-Tok]

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I heard since there is a new thread about cliamte change, that discussing it in this thread gives you AIDS.

Rage2 is stupid for not moving 1/2 these posts over there. Also because he's a ozone hole denier.

[ExtraSlow]

Interesting comments in the federal reserve survey of executives.

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On operational and cost problems:

“[M]any oil shale projects are failing to meet production projections… Further cost declines will not be forthcoming.
“The industry is admitting what independents who drilled with industry partners early on figured out: You cannot make money drilling at this price structure. An ongoing drilling program consumes all your returns and continues to require new money.”

“Over $130 billion of junk status bonds are coming due after 2020 over a two-year period for those that got in the treadmill drilling business, with wells that decline 70 percent in the first year.”
On the slowdown in drilling and production:

“U.S. oil production is about to fall significantly. The rig count has declined dramatically from one year ago (down 170 rigs), and our customers are not completing wells in order to save cash flow. This all equals a big shift down.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...p-Anxiety.html

[ExtraSlow]

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Back to business:

I predict the US total output will reach 12,500 again this week or next to compensate for the Saudis. As well, trump has ordered (my personal theory) for the producers to absolutely pin it this week to offset drops from imports, again Saudis.
...
All I need to see is 12,600 for @ExtraSlow to get me that case of beer!

I don't think the USA had any incentive to grow production since the price didn't really go up. And I honestly don't think the US can break its current trend at ANY short-term price.

[arcticcat522]

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Interesting comments in the federal reserve survey of executives.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...p-Anxiety.html

Soooo, quadruple down on all my oil stocks that are down 20+%?? I'm in!

[ExtraSlow]

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Soooo, quadruple down on all my oil stocks that are down 20+%?? I'm in!

No. Not that.
American companies have shown they don't know how to generate profits. As for Canadian oil stocks, the decoupling from the commodity price is nearly complete.

Maybe buy a Brent oil bull ETF or something if you have balls.

[Buster]

so US oil production is not the panacea that everyone has thought?

[arcticcat522]

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No. Not that.
American companies have shown they don't know how to generate profits. As for Canadian oil stocks, the decoupling from the commodity price is nearly complete.

Maybe buy a Brent oil bull ETF or something if you have balls.

I think BTE and VET have lots of Brent exposure. The 2 I own that aren't in the red....

Are places that need Canadian heave oil switching tooling, or changing the oil they need to make their product? Know what I mean?

[ExtraSlow]

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Are places that need Canadian heave oil switching tooling, or changing the oil they need to make their product? Know what I mean?

The gulf coast refinery complex that was built to handle heavier crude grades and that now has less access to heavy crude from Venezuela? Yeah, so there's still demand for the heavier grades from Canada, but transport costs limit how much value you get "at the wellhead" and egress constraints mean you can't grow production even if you are really efficient and are making money at current prices.

The value of the product is still high, and will get higher. The value of the companies that produce the product will not closely follow that same trend

[ExtraSlow]

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so US oil production is not the panacea that everyone has thought?

It's not what we thought, but it's probably exactly what we need. The idea that you could finance drilling with debt and pay that debt off with wells that decline OVER 70% in the first year, and then get MORE debt the next year to drill more was always insane. This isn't Uber, you need revenue and PROFITS to finance growth or you will fail.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not bullish on the stability of the companies themselves, or the rig count, but what I am reassured by is that fundamentals seem to be working, and after an adjustment, job losses and bankruptcies, the USA will have a realistic outlook. I hate waiting on bad news. I am much happier once I get it and I can plan.