Bud, my finances haven't recovered from the last five years. I am not doing any investing right now.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Bud, my finances haven't recovered from the last five years. I am not doing any investing right now.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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Patents...lots of them.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Everything I say is satire.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Oh boy ... $17.31 low so far.
My own quote from April 9th. I didn't put a date for WTI below $10, but I think it happens before the end of May.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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$25 now. $9.99 thread averted because ExtraSlow called the shutout too early! Good job guys!
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Probably recovered slightly due to trump blowing his own horn last night saying USA can all go back to work - crisis averted and therefore increase the demand for oil.
But May futures are already showing $18.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."
-H.P. Lovecraft
Wrong thread
Yeah I logged on this morning and saw it as $26 also wcs was showing $10 and still is atleast on oil price.
Yeah, that's the chart I'm looking at. Daily spot price is kind of meaningless, I think?This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil#/Wes...s_Intermediate
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My mistake: Front month is rolling over to June. My count flippy thingy is showing June at $25. May is still $18. Sadness on.
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Tough to say. There must have been some contracts that were sold, and purchasers are expecting their $18 oil.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
On the flip side, the spot price hasn’t been affected by it much. If you recall 5-6 weeks ago when Saudi sold some futures for April at $30, the spot price crashed.
I’m not good enough in the marketing dept, trying to learn how it all plays together.
"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."
-H.P. Lovecraft
Wti currently at 14.62 depending on what site you look at. WCS 24 hours ago was 2.50$ so prob close to zero when the markets open tomorrow. I think it’s going to be a bad day for oil stocks
Random November update since IÂ’m reading beyond.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Wish I would have taken my thoughts and took more short positions then I did! A few random thoughts:
- Things are ugly out there and still not looking any better down on the US front. There is still a lot of bankruptcies and consolidation to happen as a lot of small to mid-sized companies donÂ’t generate enough cash flow to pay down debt over the coming years.
- COVID provided a good kick-in-the-ass as Investors have finally realized how unprofitable the existing American shale business models were which has resulted in the majority of US energy companies becoming junk stocks.
- People are also finally realizing how most companies sold a “fake news” story on type curves and location counts. It turns out financial advisors sitting in New York, who don’t understand the G&G/subsurface, can’t simply model a bajillion locations with the same type curve across 500,000 acres and create a bullish story. EUR’s are much lower then predicted and GOR’s are much higher then predicted. A lot of the stuff being drilled in the US wasn’t profitable at $60 WTI, let alone $40.
- I’m still surprised shareholders don’t demand energy companies to “look-backs” to show the exact results/profitability of the wells they drilled over the last period/year. If they did this I think a lot of people would be fired. I’ve personally done it for a few areas, one specific area was “the heart of the Permian” and in a block of 12 sections over 80 wells were put down between 2014-2019 and only 2 of the wells had a positive NPV based on the results. This wasn’t even taking into account what was paid for the land. You could repeat this over most areas heavily drilled in these shale basins to a similar result other then the true “tier 1” areas. I am hoping more accountability is forced on energy companies to actually disclose their profitability on a well by well basis, or at a minimum, groupings of wells based on areas. Until this happens you will just have overpaid executive groups continuing to sell BS stories to investors.
- Gas has never been more plentiful and I donÂ’t understand the recent bullish wave on gas. Go dig a hole deep enough anywhere in North America and youÂ’ll find gas. I canÂ’t be bullish on a product that is so easily accessible. I am sure glaring regulations will come into effect in the near future (2-5 years) across many US states which would
result in further oversupply.
- I think the recovery from COVID is going to be a lot slower then the market is projecting. I donÂ’t see demand levels getting back to normal levels until 2022.
- With US Shale literally ripping apart at the seams, I am bullish on oil mid-2021 onwards. Even if prices hit $50+ WTI I donÂ’t see the US shale business getting as stupid as it was over the last 5 years. I donÂ’t think Investors & PE are stupid enough to start throwing $500MM funds to groups of 30 year olds from Midland again like what happened in 2016-2018. Capital will be smarter and only fund the truly elite prospects/plays that have a clear strategy and line-of-site to positive cash flow. You wonÂ’t have 100+ companies employing the strategy of buy and flip as it failed in most cases with investors holding the bag now.
- I donÂ’t see any line of site to a Canadian energy recovery. I think the current state of the industry is here to stay for the foreseeable future and there wonÂ’t be any big job recovery for Alberta.
- throw money into some renewable companies as governments All across the world will be throwing money into this sector like a rapper at a strip club. Even if the business models aren’t self-sustaining governments want clean energy and will provide funding, tax relief, and subsidies galore to “go green”. Invest here.
I can agree with this part, and I wish I didn't. A small number of Canadian Energy companies may survive or even thrive, but the overall industry will be so much smaller.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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