$30 barrel oil?

[pheoxs]

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Depending what happens, might even have to consider renting and not buying a house this year. Lots of overpriced houses in this market and sellers who don't want to let go.

That's basically what I'm doing. My lease expires end June and was starting to look now. If things continue this way I might just resign another year and wait it out. Even if it doesn't fall; I can't see prices going up.

[ExtraSlow]

DRW USA rig count suggestion:

https://hottakeoftheday.com/im-scared-its-2008/

[ExtraSlow]

I commend Diamondback, and suggest every company operating in north america should be doing something similar:
https://www.diamondbackenergy.com/node/12766/pdf

Diamondback is reducing activity immediately from nine completion crews to six and expects to drop two drilling rigs in April 2020 and a third later in
the second quarter of 2020. The Company has already dropped one completion crew as part of its original 2020 plan, but is now releasing two more
completion crews as a result of the recent and expected oil price weakness.

[ExtraSlow]

Again quoting DRW here, because he's cutting through the noise and being very clear. USA MUST reduce oil output.

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The way supply and demand works, is that the demand of oil (which cannot currently be stimulated with lower prices) is lower than production and prices WILL fall until supply and demand meet.
It is not a question of if the U.S will be forced to shut in 4 mmbo/d, but when. And I’m going to say it out loud because I like transparency- shutting in that much production will remind everyone who is anti fossil fuel just how important it is.
Start with the wells that are flaring, then the ones that are trucked. Then the ones that are new. When. Not if.

He's worth a follow no matter what your political, environmental or economic persuasion is. Very readable. https://www.linkedin.com/in/drwhtotd/

[Supa Dexta]

The problem with ol' supply and demand being a beacon light of where this is gonna go becomes all screwy with this outbreak - at the same time oil bickering is gonna flood the market, the demand for oil will be drying up.

Then the virus passes and people rush back to work, vacations, work resumes.. etc And oil stock piles plummet, look at all the demand! They ride that wave to the moon, and prices soar. Only for demand to level off back where we were to begin with, but with all new highs in prices...

[sabad66]

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And I’m going to say it out loud because I like transparency- shutting in that much production will remind everyone who is anti fossil fuel just how important it is.

what does he mean by this?

[A790]

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what does he mean by this?

Economic ramifications of doing so.

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, the two curves are usually out of sync with each other in terms of timing, but I think if you smooth out the longer term trends, the supply and demand thing works really well. But maybe that's my philosophical bias showing through.

Honestly, I just want 2 things: 1) a healthy and profitable US industry. and 2) consumers to understand the value of energy commodities through a little bit of scarcity. And I don't see how that can happen at these record US production levels.

- - - Updated - - -

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what does he mean by this?

He means, people think about the value of an item when it is scarce compared to the demand for that item.

[Misterman]

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what does he mean by this?

Sounds he is eluding to the idea that all the supply cut back will over shoot when this virus lockdown clears up and demand spikes again. Suddenly there is a shortage and hippies that protest oil while ignorantly heating their home with the stuff, are going to get a good wake up call while they're freezing their tits off, or paying 150$ to fill their hybrid Prius.

[KrisYYC]

Excuse my ignorance as I don't work in O&G but I know some of you guys do. How debt ridden are Canadian O&G firms relative to their US counterparts? I heard a guy on a podcast saying that Canadian firms are actually better able to withstand this price war than the US shale firms because the Canadians have been tightening their budgets for years already and are less debt ridden.

If true, can you guys give any examples of Canadian firms who aren't too levered up and can withstand this rout?
Thanks.

[ExtraSlow]

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excuse my ignorance as i don't work in o&g but i know some of you guys do. How debt ridden are canadian o&g firms relative to their us counterparts? I heard a guy on a podcast saying that canadian firms are actually better able to withstand this price war than the us shale firms because the canadians have been tightening their budgets for years already and are less debt ridden.

If true, can you guys give any examples of canadian firms who aren't too levered up and can withstand this rout?
Thanks.

cnq, vii.

[Mogg]

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excuse my ignorance as i don't work in o&g but i know some of you guys do. How debt ridden are canadian o&g firms relative to their us counterparts? I heard a guy on a podcast saying that canadian firms are actually better able to withstand this price war than the us shale firms because the canadians have been tightening their budgets for years already and are less debt ridden.

If true, can you guys give any examples of canadian firms who aren't too levered up and can withstand this rout?
Thanks.

cnq, su

[ragu]

This will be the biggest test for Alberta in its history. With challenges to both, the demand and supply, we will come out the other end as a completely different system. Hopefully, this will be a loud awakening for blue and white collar workers that we have to diversify.

[Misterman]

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Hopefully, this will be a loud awakening for blue and white collar workers that we have to diversify.

What exactly is meant by this? Or is it just a term people like to throw around to sound smart? Are we supposed to start mining cobalt or something? We can't control what resource we have available, we are stuck with what is already here. We can't become a manufacturing hub for the same reason we get bent over for our oil, because we don't have access to major shipping routes. Plus labor attraction would be impossible, as nobody would stay here for wages they can get in BC or Ontario already. Alberta will never be any sort of tech center, because tech can operate anywhere they can get office space, and Alberta is a shithole where nobody wants to live. People only do live here because they get paid higher than average wages to do shitty work that nobody else wants to do. Unfortunately the tourism industry surrounding Banff can only employ so many people.

Unless we separated to avoid the ruling overlords of Ottawa, so we would be able to build a bunch of big nuclear power facilities to supply power to the whole country, what else is there to diversify with? And if we separated to have authority over our own land, resources, and legislature, then we would be free to develop our oil resources that we already have anyway.

[Disoblige]

Go on an oil field workers or those fuck trudeau FB pages and you see shit like this posted everywhere with comments that agree. For the record, not on these groups but unfortunately in community groups that have imbeciles that share stuff from other groups. Oh well, FB groups are a cesspool of garbage anyways right?

[ExtraSlow]

Morons exist within all occupational groups.

[killramos]

I was in a medical clinic Thursday morning where the nurses and technicians were making of of the pandemic, how it’s just a flu, and a massive inconvenience to their lives to have to keep the clinic clean. Damning stuff from people who “should know better”.

As ES said, we wouldn’t want to paint any occupational group with a broad brush based on what a few say now would we.

[ragu]

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Unless And if we separated to have authority over our own land, resources, and legislature, then we would be free to develop our oil resources that we already have anyway.

Oh you still believe world needs more oil today?

I didn’t mind your nuclear idea but as long as the province keeps playing victims tied to oil, there’s no way we’ll think of anything else.

[dirtsniffer]

Ya, the worlds going to need more and more oil for the next 2 decades.

[bjstare]

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This will be the biggest test for Alberta in its history. With challenges to both, the demand and supply, we will come out the other end as a completely different system. Hopefully, this will be a loud awakening for blue and white collar workers that we have to diversify.

You know Alberta is the victim and "tied to oil" because it's literally the only thing we have, right? "Thinking of something else" isn't a solution. What if I think alberta should become focused on mining gold instead? Unfortunately for all of us, thinking it doesn't put gold in the ground.

Lets hear your diversification plan. Genuinely curious.