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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1061
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    Small improvements in takeaway capacity are good, but they are more likely to result in decreased curtailments than increased WCS price. Both are positive, but they provide benefits to some producers more than others.

    AB Govt announced no production quota on new oil wells, trying to stimulate drilling activity. If that's successful, it'll eat up some more capacity pretty easily.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    Really wish we have some trains right now......
    Luckily rail has been hitting record highs this month, we'll see if they can keep it up during Dec. Econs to the gulf are open after keystone went down.

    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    AB Govt announced no production quota on new oil wells, trying to stimulate drilling activity. If that's successful, it'll eat up some more capacity pretty easily.
    Conventional wells haven't broken through 500kbpd for the past few years so I doubt there will be much growth with them with this new rule. Only a handful of players would be able to take advantage of this new provision anyway.
    Last edited by The BMW Guy; 11-08-2019 at 05:07 PM.

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    Yeah it’ll help a bit.

    We’re still stuck with one customer who sets our price. We need to get product across the pond.

    The increase in revenue from trans Mountain alone will be mind boggling - without increase or production.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    The increase in revenue from trans Mountain alone will be mind boggling - without increase or production.
    Will it? I don't know much about the industry, but have heard there aren't many places that use our type? Of oil. Is that accurate or can anywhere use it if it's mixed? Is mixing it difficult? Can some one clear this up a bit for me

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    That's bullshit eco-lies. Yes there are different grades of oil in the world, but Canadian heavy oil is similar to what's produced in Venezuela, parts of the middle east, and even California. There are hundreds of refineries around the world specifically designed for this common type of oil, and they prefer to run that over other lighter grades.

    The market is there if the product can be delivered.
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    Is the heavier grades of oil better for different things? Like asphalt or can any grade make anything...know what I'm talkin' about?

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    Depends what you want and how much effort ($$$) you want to put into it.

    Fun fact. We produce LOTS of different grades of oil in Canada. We aren’t just a province wide oil sands pit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by arcticcat522 View Post
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    Is the heavier grades of oil better for different things? Like asphalt or can any grade make anything...know what I'm talkin' about?
    The thing is that "oil" is made up of a lot of different length hydrocarbon chains. There's a distribution of different length chains in all oils. so "heavier" oil just has that distribution more skewed towards longer chains.

    As for what you can make with it, depends on what equipment you have at your refinery. If your refinery is set up right, you can make almost anything with the heavy stuff, from asphalt to Diesel to gasoline to plastics. "light" oil is better for things like gasoline and plastics AFAIK.

    killramos is right, WCS is a well-publicized heavy grade, but there's many other Canadian benchmarks grades.
    Oilprice chart.PNG
    https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts#prices

    another Fun fact, there's more energy per barrel in "heavier" crude than light.
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    So what's in a barrel of California Buena Vista to make it the most expensive oil in the world at $66.73? Does it require less effort to get a final product out of it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by speedog View Post
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    So what's in a barrel of California Buena Vista to make it the most expensive oil in the world at $66.73? Does it require less effort to get a final product out of it?
    Good question, not entirely sure. Extraslow did a great job explaining about grades and refining.

    We do produce a lot of different grades, getting our primary product - WCS - out to the world will help tremendously.
    @speedd og I think some of the most expensive oil in the world is near China. Some of the off shore projects there are returning 80-90/bbl right now. Why specifically, I’m not sure.

    Very pure good stuff I suppose.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    The local price of any crude grade is heavily effected by the local refinery capacities plus transportation options. The same way our oil is far from refineries, a grade priced near a refinery hub could be worth more.

    There are also some "boutique" grades out there that are traded in relatively low volume. The high price isn't really a reflection of some intrinsic purity or anything.
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    Looks like the "smart money" is now betting on an upswing in worldwide oil price. If my thesis about US shale dropping is correct that make sense.
    https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/busine...f-36d47791bd66
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedog View Post
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    So what's in a barrel of California Buena Vista to make it the most expensive oil in the world at $66.73? Does it require less effort to get a final product out of it?
    I looked into this, and here's the reason. It's a really small "boutique" grade that represents something like 3000 barrels per day produced relatively near to the California refiners. For reference, California has more than a dozen oil refineries that process something like 1.9 million barrels of oil per day, the vast majority of it brought in via tanker. So, really, nothing special about the oil except that it's close and scarce.
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    fun graph from Enerlead regarding Texas well counts:
    enerlead.jpg
    Clearly November is a partial month, but .....
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    Don't have any knowledge of the Canadian oil market, but I was always under the assumption there isn't any rail capacity to move significant amounts of oil for export but this was interesting to see:

    https://calgaryherald.com/business/e...venezuelan-oil
    ---

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    Quote Originally Posted by kenny View Post
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    Don't have any knowledge of the Canadian oil market, but I was always under the assumption there isn't any rail capacity to move significant amounts of oil for export but this was interesting to see:

    https://calgaryherald.com/business/e...venezuelan-oil
    If only we had a pipeline that could ship our energy products east. Perhaps we could even call it Energy East.
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    if only we had a pipeline that could ship our energy products east. Perhaps we could even call it environment and social justice east.
    ftfy
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    Pipeline that ships Environment and Social Justice from the east. Sounds like the CBC to me.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

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    Was going to post the repsol article here too.

    That’s amazing if true. Also read Aspen project will not go ahead until the curtailment ends.

    Would love to see that project go ahead.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Well... USA continues to blow expectations out of the water.

    New production record today, 12,800.

    Rigs are down, fine. They had thousands of wells ready to go from what I understand. And they’re coming online now that the pipeline capacity is a available down there.

    Lord Emperor Trump.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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