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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1141
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    Or you are calculating payout wrong, which I know a lot of D&C teams do, possibly on purpose to make themselves look better.

    Or you need better completions tools. Yeah probably that.
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    I’m very interested in this interpretive spectrum of payouts. My math always shows it as a pretty simple formula.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Or you need better completions tools. Yeah probably that.
    Subtle, I like your style.
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    ...Last thing I want is someone reading my posts and losing their cock over it...
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    Meh, they all look like Jackie Chan to me
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    I'm generally cute.

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    Subtle like a sledge hammer. Just how I like my completions tools.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Imperial investment in cold lake, and an 80,000 bbl expansion in Kearl.
    That is interesting. I have heard a few rumors from different folks that CNRL is looking to buy Kearl. Mustn't be true if Imperial is investing.
    Looking around
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    Quote Originally Posted by 16hypen3sp View Post
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    That is interesting. I have heard a few rumors from different folks that CNRL is looking to buy Kearl. Mustn't be true if Imperial is investing.
    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5356745

    And in other news, Cenovous announced they’re increasing CapEx 22% for 2020, to around 1.5billion. Great news!
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5356745

    And in other news, Cenovous announced they’re increasing CapEx 22% for 2020, to around 1.5billion. Great news!
    Just gives more to cut for next year!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5356745

    And in other news, Cenovous announced they’re increasing CapEx 22% for 2020, to around 1.5billion. Great news!
    Interesting. Thanks for posting that. I heard about the CNRL buying rumors very recently, like within the last week. I wonder if something has changed recently.
    Looking around
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  9. #1149
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    For those of us obsessed with the Permian basin, here's the most recent ShaleProfile update. Well productivity hasn't improved since 2016.
    Name:  Cum-vs-time.jpg
Views: 594
Size:  35.9 KB
    https://shaleprofile.com/2019/12/19/...eptember-2019/
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Interesting ES.

    With current pricing, what’re your thoughts about slowdowns in the shale play?

    $60 it’ll continue to boom and this slowdown will be very temporary.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    I hear a lot, but it's all at a very low signal-to-noise ratio. And while I talk about this topic a lot, I'm not well positioned to have any unique insights.

    Honestly, it's my opinion that US shale would be a lot healthier if they drop at least another 100 rigs through the first half of 2020. But Americans are incredibly resilient and optimistic, so they may not.

    What's current count, 775 land rigs, and maybe 700 in lower 48? That *should* be under 650 probably, but . . . . ? At this point, price seems to be less important than access to financing. Look at the deal Devon did with Dow to develop their STACK play. That's core long-term Devon land, and they couldn't finance it themselves.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    WTF? Texas added 18 rigs last week according to BH.
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    It's a pretty somber feeling at IOL that Aspen is still in the 'we'll see how the political and pipeline environments evolve" stages. Lots of people have been re-org'd a couple times now because of the up/downs of Aspen. I would love to work that asset.
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Quote Originally Posted by msommers View Post
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    It's a pretty somber feeling at IOL that Aspen is still in the 'we'll see how the political and pipeline environments evolve" stages. Lots of people have been re-org'd a couple times now because of the up/downs of Aspen. I would love to work that asset.
    You bet. Keep your eye open for suncor meadow creek. A big boy at 120,000bbls and constructing as we speak.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    WTF? Texas added 18 rigs last week according to BH.
    That’s a good thing! Or is it?

    No slowdown, but GLUT.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    That’s a good thing! Or is it?
    I honestly don't even know anymore. I was hoping a serious permian slowdown would force a rethink of sentiment, and maybe, a review of where in the world investment dollar flow. Not sure if that was a rational position though. Like everyone else, emotion clouds my judgement.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    I honestly don't even know anymore. I was hoping a serious permian slowdown would force a rethink of sentiment, and maybe, a review of where in the world investment dollar flow. Not sure if that was a rational position though. Like everyone else, emotion clouds my judgement.
    I second what you say.

    I just read the forecast (re-forecasted numbers???) for 2020 are an additional 1 million barrels. So USA would top out around 14 million/day.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Dropping here because O&G related, link.
    Will fuck off, again.

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    Also very much O&G related, how much is this new shipping fuel regulation coming into effect this upcoming January 1st going to affect everything else - news article here, http://www.canadianminingjournal.com...-shock-coming/

    News article text...

    regulations could have a big impact in the new year
    Under International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules that come into effect on Jan. 1, 2020, emissions from fuel used in ocean carriers cannot exceed a sulphur content of 0.5%.

    With current sulphur content at about 3.5%, the coming switch to low-sulphur fuel is enormous, both as an undertaking and in its far-reaching effects. It is certainly unprecedented, and few understand what impacts are coming while many others are unaware that the switch is imminent. The diesel supply side will be exposed, the timeline is short, users and consumers are unaware and unprepared for the event, which may exaggerate the impact when it happens.

    The conversion of ocean carriers from heavy or residual fuel oil (also known as bunker fuel) with a higher sulphur content to low-sulphur fuel could seriously impact the supply and/or the price of distillate fuels. The overall effects are unpredictable and knowledge of this change is primarily limited to the transportation industry. The mandate cannot be delayed because it was set by IMO treaty 10 years ago. However, Indonesia’s government announced in July that the country will not enforce the IMO low-sulphur standard for domestic fleets due to the high cost. It is the first country to abandon the IMO2020 mandate.

    Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides released into the atmosphere are known to adversely affect health. Goldman Sachs estimates that the 15 largest ocean vessels emit more sulphur from high-sulphur bunker fuel than all of the world’s gasoline or diesel fueled automobiles, combined.

    According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global fuel demand for ocean shipping is small and amounts to just 4% of total global demand, about 4.3 million barrels per day. Bunker fuels represent 3% of total transportation energy use. About 80% of U.S. residual fuel is for marine bunker fuels mixed with distillate fuels. The question remains as to how large will be the impact outside ocean shippers. Because bunker fuels represent the sole important use of this product, to comply with the IMO 2020 sulphur limits will have major economic implications for the use of residual oils for marine fuels. The effects will reach other parties up and down the supply chain, from customers that sustain the market, to both the refineries and the producers that find and pump the crude. This includes the mining sector, as Capesize ships are commonly used in transportation of coal, iron ore and commodity raw materials.

    Shipper options

    Shippers can meet the new standard on Jan. 1, 2020, by adding scrubbers to reduce the sulphur from emissions of high-sulphur fuels, switch to low-sulphur diesel fuel, or convert engines to natural gas. DNV GL reports that at least 225 cruise lines and freight shippers have converted or ordered LNG conversions. RBEnergy.com contends the scrubber conversions may be more economical than purchasing the IMO2020-compliant fuel or the LNG conversions. Vessels failing to meet the standard will be declared “unseaworthy,” lose insurance coverage, and face steep penalties and fines. Freight contracts made in 2019 also cannot escape the low-sulphur fuel mandate.

    Price and supply implications

    According to trade publication Transport Topics, demand for maritime distillate fuel after the rule takes effect is anticipated to rise by 3 to 4 million gallons per day for ocean freight and cruise lines, and any tweaking of supply and demand by refiners would be limited. But fuel-switching, the change in refinery output from high-sulphur to low-sulphur fuels or distillates, combined with the transport and market of the compliant fuels, involves a much larger change because the high to low-sulphur fuel transition involves from 84 million to 168 million gallons/day. Svelland Capital says it’s the largest-ever regulatory change in the oil industry and it will have massive effects that extend far outside of shipping, to trucking, railroads, farms, and industry users. Estimates of the IMO global impact range from US$240 billion in total to more than US$5 trillion over five years. Denmark’s Maersk and the Swiss MSC estimate added costs of fuels at US$2 billion for each company. The impact is not limited to diesel, but the ruling will also impact the availability and cost of home heating fuel, jet fuel and gasoline as refiners devote more attention to the low-sulphur bunker fuel market, says Daniel Yergin, IHS Market vice-chairman.

    Fuel use by ocean transport, a very large industry, uses more fuel than land transport, another factor that may exaggerate the impact, says Daniel Yergin in his address at the TPM 2019 shipping container conference. Yergin adds that the “change is big and will not go smoothly.” The “transformative” change creates risks, opportunities, winners, and losers, Yergin said, warning of an IMO scramble because “industries are not prepared.”

    Small companies or low-volume users — farmers, airlines, truckers, mines and others — will be hit hardest and will not receive favoured terms compared with crude oil supertankers, containerships, Panamax or Capesize ships.

    The big question is what will be the impact on availability and price to trucking, rail transport and the demand by industry that already uses low-sulphur diesel fuels. At this time, magnitude of the effect is impossible to predict.

    Historic price shocks

    A look back to the ultra-low-sulphur diesel mandate in 2005 may be helpful because the ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) rule caused diesel prices to spike above those of gasoline. Before the ULSD phase-in, according to Forbes.com, gasoline traded at a premium to diesel, then diesel prices traded US4 cents above gasoline, but after implementing the ULSD standard, diesel prices surged to average 23 cents above the price of gasoline. Also, the purchase price of high-sulphur, or sour crude oils also fell (because it was less favored for refinery feedstock) compared to lower sulphur or sweet crude oil. Refineries which processed only sour crude oils have since closed, stranding some high-sulphur supplies but the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts some of these facilities may re-open in the future to satisfy demand under the new IMO rules.

    Diesel prices rose in the 2006–2010 period after low-sulphur fuels were mandated in North America and Europe. Diesel prices rose to US$4.25 per gallon on May 1, 2008. The increase cost truckers US$140 billion for diesel in 2008, US$30 billion more than in 2007. By election day, prices fell to US$2.07 per gallon when Barack Obama was elected U.S. President.

    Wider impacts of the IMO ruling

    Although not directly involved in the transition, customers of traditional fuels for autos, home heating, truck and rail shipping will also feel the impact. This is because the overall rise in demand for distillate fuels will reach 88.2 billion gallons annually. Furthermore, because new blend specifications remain non-standard, no one knows what types of fuels will be available, or their supply and cost.

    Logistics Management magazine says the fuel cost may double in a short time following the Jan. 1 deadline. Forecasts by McKinsey and International Energy Agency also expect distillate fuel costs like diesel and jet fuel to double but then soften after a period of adjustment. At the same time, the cost of motor gasoline will be unchanged but then eventually fall by US20 cents per gallon.

    The IMO2020 rule will also impact sourcing of products and timing of shipments from overseas or ultimate sourcing from new or alternate sources. Slow-steaming was one strategy used by ocean ships to lower costs. Slowed ship speeds can save 10% on the cost of fuel, but delayed arrival time impacted logistical planning and customer’s lead times. Slowed arrival times and cost of fuel will require examination of near-shoring or on-shoring of suppliers versus goods shipped long distance by ocean ships.

    It seems clear that the mandated change from high-sulphur to low-sulphur fuels by ocean shipping will impact ocean shipping. The impact on ocean shipping will be most marked, while the impact of the IMO ruling on fuel users outside ocean shipping are quite uncertain.

    —David Boleneus is a senior cost analyst/geologist with CostMine (costs.infomine.com), part of the Glacier Resource Innovation Group, based in Spokane, WA. He can be reached at [email protected].
    Last edited by speedog; 12-25-2019 at 01:29 AM.
    Will fuck off, again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by speedog View Post
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    Also very much O&G related, how much is this new shipping fuel regulation coming into effect this upcoming January 1st going to affect everything else - news article here, http://www.canadianminingjournal.com...-shock-coming/

    News article text...
    From almost 2 years ago.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1II0PP

    https://globalnews.ca/news/4259018/2...ude-price/amp/
    GT1R. 8.82@169
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    Trumpy Killed an Iranian General.

    Tomorrow will be a good day to own oil stocks.

    https://nationalpost.com/news/irans-...-spokesman/amp
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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