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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1601
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    Quote Originally Posted by msommers View Post
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    So what did you buy?
    Bud, my finances haven't recovered from the last five years. I am not doing any investing right now.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by msommers View Post
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    So what did you buy?
    Patents...lots of them.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Oh boy ... $17.31 low so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    You need to put "happening" in "quotes" to show how "skeptical" you "are" bro.
    The full 10 won't happen right away, and then, the 10 won't matter as we'll see 35 by force worldwide.

    The only actual "10" we will see is the $10 mark for WTI as we sail past it downwards.
    My own quote from April 9th. I didn't put a date for WTI below $10, but I think it happens before the end of May.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    $25 now. $9.99 thread averted because ExtraSlow called the shutout too early! Good job guys!
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Probably recovered slightly due to trump blowing his own horn last night saying USA can all go back to work - crisis averted and therefore increase the demand for oil.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    $25 now. $9.99 thread averted because ExtraSlow called the shutout too early! Good job guys!
    But May futures are already showing $18.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Wrong thread

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    Yeah I logged on this morning and saw it as $26 also wcs was showing $10 and still is atleast on oil price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    But May futures are already showing $18.
    Yeah, that's the chart I'm looking at. Daily spot price is kind of meaningless, I think?
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil#/Wes...s_Intermediate
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    My mistake: Front month is rolling over to June. My count flippy thingy is showing June at $25. May is still $18. Sadness on.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Yeah, that's the chart I'm looking at. Daily spot price is kind of meaningless, I think?
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil#/Wes...s_Intermediate
    Tough to say. There must have been some contracts that were sold, and purchasers are expecting their $18 oil.

    On the flip side, the spot price hasn’t been affected by it much. If you recall 5-6 weeks ago when Saudi sold some futures for April at $30, the spot price crashed.

    I’m not good enough in the marketing dept, trying to learn how it all plays together.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Wti currently at 14.62 depending on what site you look at. WCS 24 hours ago was 2.50$ so prob close to zero when the markets open tomorrow. I think it’s going to be a bad day for oil stocks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Type_S1 View Post
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    The US is down to ~671 last I checked which is ~23% down in 2019. I personally see things getting worse in 2020 so another 20% drop gets you down to 530-550 range which is realistic in my mind. Getting under 500 is only a 25% drop so not out of the realm.

    This is not an exhaustive list but A few themes to watch for which all result in reduced unconventional drilling is:
    - SaudiÂ’s 2020 plans - if they turn on the taps I believe oil will be back in the 30Â’s.
    - significant future volumes are expected from outside of the US. Norway, Guyana, new Brazilian blocks, etc. Couple that with sanctions potentially being lifted (Iran, Libya, etc.) and this all leads to oversupply.
    - both of the above cause the highest cost producers to slow down...the highest cost/lowest margin producers worldwide is US-Shale.
    - The flavor of the day is companies providing FCF, meaning lower 48 operators canÂ’t continue on the same pace as US shale plays have not returned FCF. To get FCF you have to drop rigs and focus on your best acreage which companies have already started to do and will continue to do into 2020 to show a FCF/returns to shareholder story. growth is no longer important.
    - How do companies deal with maturing debt? Will they be able to replace it or are they going to get squeezed into non-traditional funding? There is a lot of debt maturing in US shale from 2020-2022 and itÂ’s going to become a massive concern to industry.
    - potential industry consolidation is will likely result in reduced rig counts as companies optimize.
    Random November update since IÂ’m reading beyond.

    Wish I would have taken my thoughts and took more short positions then I did! A few random thoughts:
    - Things are ugly out there and still not looking any better down on the US front. There is still a lot of bankruptcies and consolidation to happen as a lot of small to mid-sized companies donÂ’t generate enough cash flow to pay down debt over the coming years.
    - COVID provided a good kick-in-the-ass as Investors have finally realized how unprofitable the existing American shale business models were which has resulted in the majority of US energy companies becoming junk stocks.
    - People are also finally realizing how most companies sold a “fake news” story on type curves and location counts. It turns out financial advisors sitting in New York, who don’t understand the G&G/subsurface, can’t simply model a bajillion locations with the same type curve across 500,000 acres and create a bullish story. EUR’s are much lower then predicted and GOR’s are much higher then predicted. A lot of the stuff being drilled in the US wasn’t profitable at $60 WTI, let alone $40.
    - I’m still surprised shareholders don’t demand energy companies to “look-backs” to show the exact results/profitability of the wells they drilled over the last period/year. If they did this I think a lot of people would be fired. I’ve personally done it for a few areas, one specific area was “the heart of the Permian” and in a block of 12 sections over 80 wells were put down between 2014-2019 and only 2 of the wells had a positive NPV based on the results. This wasn’t even taking into account what was paid for the land. You could repeat this over most areas heavily drilled in these shale basins to a similar result other then the true “tier 1” areas. I am hoping more accountability is forced on energy companies to actually disclose their profitability on a well by well basis, or at a minimum, groupings of wells based on areas. Until this happens you will just have overpaid executive groups continuing to sell BS stories to investors.
    - Gas has never been more plentiful and I donÂ’t understand the recent bullish wave on gas. Go dig a hole deep enough anywhere in North America and youÂ’ll find gas. I canÂ’t be bullish on a product that is so easily accessible. I am sure glaring regulations will come into effect in the near future (2-5 years) across many US states which would
    result in further oversupply.
    - I think the recovery from COVID is going to be a lot slower then the market is projecting. I donÂ’t see demand levels getting back to normal levels until 2022.
    - With US Shale literally ripping apart at the seams, I am bullish on oil mid-2021 onwards. Even if prices hit $50+ WTI I donÂ’t see the US shale business getting as stupid as it was over the last 5 years. I donÂ’t think Investors & PE are stupid enough to start throwing $500MM funds to groups of 30 year olds from Midland again like what happened in 2016-2018. Capital will be smarter and only fund the truly elite prospects/plays that have a clear strategy and line-of-site to positive cash flow. You wonÂ’t have 100+ companies employing the strategy of buy and flip as it failed in most cases with investors holding the bag now.
    - I donÂ’t see any line of site to a Canadian energy recovery. I think the current state of the industry is here to stay for the foreseeable future and there wonÂ’t be any big job recovery for Alberta.
    - throw money into some renewable companies as governments All across the world will be throwing money into this sector like a rapper at a strip club. Even if the business models aren’t self-sustaining governments want clean energy and will provide funding, tax relief, and subsidies galore to “go green”. Invest here.

  15. #1615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Type_S1 View Post
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    - I don't see any line of site to a Canadian energy recovery. I think the current state of the industry is here to stay for the foreseeable future and there won't be any big job recovery for Alberta.
    I can agree with this part, and I wish I didn't. A small number of Canadian Energy companies may survive or even thrive, but the overall industry will be so much smaller.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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