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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1541
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    Well this shook me..

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/markets....0-4-1029073308

    USA: Projected 2 million bbl cut by next year! If true, Saudi and Russia may just cooperate.

    This is to show united front for the upcoming OPEC meeting Thursday. It could be fake news though.

    Chevron and EXXON already reduced billions (like 5) in their capital program from the Permian.

    Petrobras also cutting 200,000 bbls.

    OPEC+ good for 8 million barrels??
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by JRSC00LUDE View Post
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    Some poor soul's offence negative rep'd me for this. Must have hit a sore spot, much like his priest. Oh shit guess I'll get another one now At least leave your name next time ya douche!
    Did they just leave a "." ?
    I think they are letting you know who they are.

    They're a period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Well this shook me..
    USA: Projected 2 million bbl cut by next year! If true, Saudi and Russia may just cooperate.
    The way I was reading that was that they were projecting a 2 million bbl/d reduction in output from natural decline due to lower activity by the end of the two year period. Not a coordinated effort to immediately shut in current production.
    OPEC isn't going to put up with that.
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    OPEC isn't going to put up with that.
    They way I read it from Russia and Saudi is that join OPEC or be wiped out.

    Thursday is going to be fun.

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    Oil bear ETF brothers.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    EIA weekly report for the week ending 20202-04-03 shows, production drop of 600,000 barrels, and an inventory storage gain of 2,168,000 barrels.
    Name:  EIA weekly petroleum 2020-04-07.PNG
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    Expect much larger production drop next week, and still, a massive storage gain.
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    Russia: U.S. Shale Decline Can’t Count As ‘Output Cut’
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...utput-Cut.html
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    So, as usual, DRW has explained this better than I can. An output cut of 10-15 million barrels a day is inconsequential, no matter who is doing the cutting. The world is running out of storage either way.
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Russia: U.S. Shale Decline Can’t Count As ‘Output Cut’
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...utput-Cut.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    So, as usual, DRW has explained this better than I can. An output cut of 10-15 million barrels a day is inconsequential, no matter who is doing the cutting. The world is running out of storage either way.
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    The thing is a 10mm cut would still be huge for when things start to pick back up. It'll be a slow few months but by middle of the summer we should see restrictions eased. It's feasible we can go back to businesses being open but limitations on capacities and offices opened but with rules regarding mask usage and cleaning and hopefully keep things under a slow spread.

    Energy is gonna be fucked in the short term just like everywhere else is, but if it sets things up for some cuts + some US bankruptcies hopefully it means within a year post-covid that things can be roughly back to where they were last year. At least energy price wise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    The thing is a 10mm cut would still be huge for when things start to pick back up. It'll be a slow few months but by middle of the summer we should see restrictions eased.
    Sure, let's explore that. Hypothetically: If they cut 10 million, and have perfect adherence, that means we need to put ~15 million barrels a day into storage for two months. That's 900 million barrels that have to be stored somewhere by June 1.
    Then, let's say demand increases a bit, like 50% of the previous reduction, and they maintain the cut without any overproduction by anyone. If the period of "reduced demand" lasts another 4 months. They'll still be producing ~2.5 million barrels a day too much, which over 4 months is another 300 million barrels that have to be stored somewhere.

    Storage absolutely WILL run out. It's been recently estimated that there is already a BILLION barrels of oil in storage, and some estimate global storage capacity at 1.2 billion barrels. The EXTRA 1.2 billion barrels in my scenario above will literally have nowhere to go. Not tankers, refineries, trucks. Nowhere.

    The day that oil traders can't store the product is the day the price crashes. Emotion can only support the market for a physical commodity for so long.
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    10 million cut is historic.

    But not enough. If they move to 15 million, that might be it. Norway will be reducing output next.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    10 million cut is historic.
    But not enough. If they move to 15 million, that might be it. Norway will be reducing output next.
    the market knows this wasn't enough, and couldn't be enough. Look at WTI fall right around the time the cut is made official.
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomberg
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    Some of the world’s largest oil producers are finalizing a deal that would take an unprecedented 10 million barrels a day of global crude supplies off the market in an effort to fight the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Crude prices are crashing anyway.

    Futures in New York plunged 9% even as Saudi Arabia ended its price war with Russia and orchestrated an unprecedented 10 million barrel-a-day production cut among OPEC and its allies. Oil in London closed 4% lower.

    The seemingly unstoppable collapse in oil markets underscores how dramatic the plunge in oil demand has become as the virus ravages world economies, prolongs lockdowns, grounds planes and keeps cars off the road. Even an agreement to eliminate 10% of global crude supply, while extraordinary, isn’t enough to offset demand losses of as much as 35 million barrels a day.
    Even OPEC+’s Deep Cuts Couldn’t Keep Oil Markets From Plunging
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    the market knows this wasn't enough, and couldn't be enough. Look at WTI fall right around the time the cut is made official.
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    Yeah man. We’ll see what happens, I’m still surprised 10 is happening.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Yeah man. We’ll see what happens, I’m still surprised 10 is happening.
    You need to put "happening" in "quotes" to show how "skeptical" you "are" bro.
    The full 10 won't happen right away, and then, the 10 won't matter as we'll see 35 by force worldwide.

    The only actual "10" we will see is the $10 mark for WTI as we sail past it downwards.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    You need to put "happening" in "quotes" to show how "skeptical" you "are" bro.
    The full 10 won't happen right away, and then, the 10 won't matter as we'll see 35 by force worldwide.

    The only actual "10" we will see is the $10 mark for WTI as we sail past it downwards.
    /sadface

    I just listened to Patrick Stewart reading sonnets on Twitter, so this only mildly upsets me.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    In keeping my uppers and downers in careful balance so I'm staying pretty zen about it for now. But like global oil markets, this is uncharted and unstable territory......
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    Alberta premier says province hasn't been asked to constrain energy output

    I guess they know the price will do it...

    Also: Deferring of PNG and Oil Sands Crown Mineral Rights Sales

    Wonder if BC & SK are going to follow...
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    They're still praying to Jeebus an aid package actually comes to fruition. Feels like that "hours, next couple days" promise is a Kijiji scam.
    Ultracrepidarian

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