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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1041
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    USA production hit 12,500 again.

    I just need that 100k more and I’m good hah.

    Read a report from June or July they said 13,400 by year end. That would be something to squeeze out another million.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    USA production hit 12,500 again.

    I just need that 100k more and I’m good hah.

    Read a report from June or July they said 13,400 by year end. That would be something to squeeze out another million.
    I don't see it, but hey, that's why this conversation is interesting.
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    It's counterintuitive, but I like when US rig counts drop. I fee like it's necessary for the health of the industry on both sides of the border.

    Oil rigs only:
    20191003 US Rig Count.PNG
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    Yeah. 12,400 for the week as quoted by EIA

    Come on 12,600!
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Kim Kardashian Sex tape:
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Friendly wager? I know there are uncompleted wells, but I don't think they'll catch up to April production peak.
    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Let’s do a friendly wager of a case of the finest cheap beer of the winners choice.
    We need timelines though. 12 months?
    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    How about two bets, one for March 1st and same bet for Sept 1? USA total production results published on or before those dates will be BELOW the currently published 2019 high. That's my side of the bet.
    I'm also willing to bet that the trans mountain expansion will be officially cancelled by Justin Trudeau in 2020. Same case of beer or a plate of wings and two beers at palomino.
    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Sure man I’ll take the bets for March and sept.
    So published production this week is 12,600, so yep, I lose the first half of that bet. Second half wasn't as clearly worded, did I already lose that one too, or does that one start March 1?
    Quote Originally Posted by EIA
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    Table 1. U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week Ending 10/4/2019
    (1) Domestic Production(5) .................... 12,600

    I need some one to take my TMX bet to get back to even.
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 10-09-2019 at 11:18 AM.
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    I was just going to check this thread. You beat me to it.

    Let’s say we require a 12,600 by March 1, 2020 to solidify the second part of the bet.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Kim Kardashian Sex tape:
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    nice box... to bad that nigs face is in it

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    I was just going to check this thread. You beat me to it.

    Let’s say we require a 12,600 by March 1, 2020 to solidify the second part of the bet.
    12,600 AFTER March 1?
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    So from what I understood, a lot of the unfinished wells were actually finished but never called that.

    I also heard there were some couple thousand wells ready to come on at anytime, the biggest hold was pipeline capacity in Texas which Lord Emperor Trump quickly rectified.

    By March I wouldn’t doubt the states at 13,600. They’re going to drown us in oil and unfortunately it might get worse as a global glut before it truly gets better and the states declines.

    I doubt it’ll decline, Trump wants an oil independent USA. That does include Canada if we can swing a conservative majority.

    Puppet Scheer and the Don will make keystone happen. Oil will rev up and the states will have 20mil/barrel (Canada exports included) independency in 10 years or sooner. My theory.

    I’ve read the sands are supposed to really fire hard the second half of the 2020s. Could be for true.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

    Kim Kardashian Sex tape:
    Originally posted by hadookin
    nice box... to bad that nigs face is in it

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    Was given a look at some slides that break down the US response to price changes. Looks like historically the USA rig count takes ~4 months to respond to oil price hikes, and then production takes an additional 8 months, for a total cycle time of ~12 months from a price hike for significant additional supplies to come on-stream. Rig count is dropping with 2019 WTI prices between $50 and $60, so I think counts don't go up until WIT is consistently above $65.
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    "wait, I thought the job advertised a driller, not a griller!"

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    Another EIA production update.

    Record production (12600) sustained still.

    I read two articles recently;

    1) the new pipeline is about to be fired up in the Permian, they expecting another 1.5million pretty quick

    2) the USA wants to be the LNG leaders and right quick. Their BOE from those projects will equal A LOT of red white and blue production. Saudi who?

    Edit: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...omination.html

    Double edit: found the other one.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.cnn....gas/index.html
    Last edited by Darkane; 10-17-2019 at 11:48 AM.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

    Kim Kardashian Sex tape:
    Originally posted by hadookin
    nice box... to bad that nigs face is in it

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    Amazing. U. S. A! U. S. A!
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    I haven't really been paying attention to the price of oil but just looked at noticed WCS dropped 25% a month ago. Anyone know why? Was it the continuation of the curtailment or what?

    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    I haven't really been paying attention to the price of oil but just looked at noticed WCS dropped 25% a month ago. Anyone know why? Was it the continuation of the curtailment or what?

    Differentials always widen going into the Winter. WCS has been in the -$12.00 to -$13.00 range for the last 5 months and November just came out at -$14.75, so it's a bit wider but not crazy. Last year at this time it was -$45.66 which was insane.

    Between September and October though the WCS price only changed by about $0.40 US/bbl (to date) so I don't know why that chart is showing a $10 drop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    I haven't really been paying attention to the price of oil but just looked at noticed WCS dropped 25% a month ago. Anyone know why? Was it the continuation of the curtailment or what?

    Broadly following world oil price:
    Oil Prices comparison.PNG
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    Wednesday new production reports come out.

    I’m expecting to see a 12,700.

    Check out this snip:

    U.S. shale production has turned the world “on its head,” and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is “off a bit” in a report last week saying that the bonanza is fading, Perry said on Sunday in Dubai.
    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bloo...arreling-ahead

    It’s going to get way worse than better. The USA is just not letting off the gas, and we all might suffer if the Saudis don’t cut further.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Posted for no other reason than to post a youtube video.
    FATCA is coming for your loonies.

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    Hopefully this should help WCS a bit. 100k bpd increase in capacity and another 50k bpd in Q1 as well

    On Friday, Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. said an optimization program on its Mainline system, which accounts for about 70 per cent of Canadian oil exports into the United States, is expected to add 100,000 barrels per day of additional capacity by year-end.

    That's at the top end of its original target of 50,000 to 100,000 bpd and a 15,000 bpd increase over the 85,000 bpd expected by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

    "We're also moving forward with a 50,000-barrel-per-day expansion of Express to serve PADD 4 (U.S. Rockies region). That should be ready in Q1."
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...erta-1.5353550
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    Hopefully this should help WCS a bit. 100k bpd increase in capacity and another 50k bpd in Q1 as well



    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...erta-1.5353550
    That's nice but when the hack is Keystone running again? 500k bpd lost isn't nothing.

    Really wish we have some trains right now......

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