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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1081
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Well... USA continues to blow expectations out of the water.

    New production record today, 12,800.

    Rigs are down, fine. They had thousands of wells ready to go from what I understand. And they’re coming online now that the pipeline capacity is a available down there.

    Lord Emperor Trump.
    Wow, you are killing me.
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Everyone talks about the expensive nature of shale, well I’m saying all that is horse shit.

    We have local production at under $10/bbl CDN, and these guys are struggling at $50 USD?

    Nope, fake news. Long/short - the USA is truly going to show the world how to drown in oil.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Everyone talks about the expensive nature of shale, well I’m saying all that is horse shit.

    We have local production at under $10/bbl CDN, and these guys are struggling at $50 USD?

    Nope, fake news. Long/short - the USA is truly going to show the world how to drown in oil.
    10$/bbl? Care to post proof?

    If your talking strictly operating costs then sure maybe some facilities can keep the lights on for 10$/bbl but I highly doubt any project including CapEx costs over the lifetime of the facility would be covered for 10 bucks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    10$/bbl? Care to post proof?

    If your talking strictly operating costs then sure maybe some facilities can keep the lights on for 10$/bbl but I highly doubt any project including CapEx costs over the lifetime of the facility would be covered for 10 bucks.
    OpEx. I’m saying operating cost of the facility is $10/bbl and less.

    And I’m speaking SAGD Operations, specifically.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Here some MEG proof.

    Again OpEx.

    Record low per barrel net operating costs of $5.09 per barrel, including low non-energy operating costs of $4.62 per barrel, compared to guidance of $4.50 to $5.00 per barrel;

    https://www.megenergy.com/news-room/...l-results-2018

    Including CapEx a shitload of the projects can be done for an all in cost of under $20CDN.

    Some plants just east of us are producing for $7/bbl!!!
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Opex below $10/bbl I totally believe.

    Full-cycle project costs including debt servicing costs are more interesting to me because that's what the next incremental barrel from a new project needs to be evaluated on.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Opex below $10/bbl I totally believe.

    Full-cycle project costs including debt servicing costs are more interesting to me because that's what the next incremental barrel from a new project needs to be evaluated on.
    Bonavistas cash costs are higher than their opex.

    $10/bbl full cycle cost are non-existent in Western Canada. $10/boe half cycle capital costs are doable, but usually the low numbers have a decent gas component that’s worthless.

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    My grandpappy used to say: You can't get blood from a stone, but you can squeeze a rock and get oil.
    0.5 gram microsd delivered by 12,000 pound combustion vehicle and driver.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Here some MEG proof.

    Again OpEx.

    Record low per barrel net operating costs of $5.09 per barrel, including low non-energy operating costs of $4.62 per barrel, compared to guidance of $4.50 to $5.00 per barrel;

    https://www.megenergy.com/news-room/...l-results-2018

    Including CapEx a shitload of the projects can be done for an all in cost of under $20CDN.

    Some plants just east of us are producing for $7/bbl!!!
    Alright fair. Funny you mention that I was reading an article about the oil sands reducing their emissions today and saw this bit.

    Oilsands takes a huge amount of investment, but once an operation is up and running, it has 50 to 60 years of steady supply, and all those decades to refine its processes. Since 2009, Laut said per-barrel costs of production at CNRL have dropped, from $42-$44 US per barrel to $15 US. He’d like to get that number to $10 per barrel.

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    Just read an article that says Husky is producing for $8/bbl.

    Not sure what he meant by sustaining, but it could mean and all in cost of 13-16/bbl including CapEx CDN.

    Dirt cheap! And shale is breaking even at $40-50USD? Give me a break.

    https://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/art...output-eor-br/
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    That's bullshit eco-lies. Yes there are different grades of oil in the world, but Canadian heavy oil is similar to what's produced in Venezuela, parts of the middle east, and even California. There are hundreds of refineries around the world specifically designed for this common type of oil, and they prefer to run that over other lighter grades.

    The market is there if the product can be delivered.
    Just to add to this.
    Many moons ago questions were raised by the public on the BBC TV show question time, that we (the UK) can we not use its natural resources in the north sea to do better. The type of oil is not the same. The UK has the opposite problem. Its not heavy. The UK struggles for resources.
    The heavy stuff is what the world needs to run its economy, mine resources and build infrastructure. We have lots of resources and we don't want to build, be self sufficient or do anything with it.

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    ShaleProfile released it's Permian update. Here's data from Permian Hz Oil wells only.
    Name:  Permian Production - 2019-11-21.jpg
Views: 521
Size:  23.7 KB
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    How are the costs on those 2019 first run wells? I work in downstream so little knowledge about that but I've heard talk that all of the easy plays in the Permian are starting to be tapped and costs will start to rise for them? This is just what I heard though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_patm View Post
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    How are the costs on those 2019 first run wells? I work in downstream so little knowledge about that but I've heard talk that all of the easy plays in the Permian are starting to be tapped and costs will start to rise for them? This is just what I heard though.
    Costs for drilling have been declining steadily, although that trend is pretty flat now. Costs for completions are highly dependent on frac intensity. It costs more money to pump 2x the sand, but the economics of doing so appear to be favourable. Or the companies that are doing it claim they are.

    A bigger problem for most Permian players is not costs rising, it's high declines giving them a falling cash-flow.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Good chart.

    Production data dumped yesterday. USandA held strong at 12,800.

    Do we see 13 by year end?
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    ShaleProfile released it's Permian update. Here's data from Permian Hz Oil wells only.
    Name:  Permian Production - 2019-11-21.jpg
Views: 521
Size:  23.7 KB
    If I'm reading that right, in one year the wells lose 60% of their production? Thats crazy.

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    Lol 60 is a low estimate, that’s the average of a whole year of wells...

    80%+ is more realistic.

    Got to love unconventional oil.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    The funny thing is that there are ways to lower decline, but it's a trade-off, and depending on how you run your economics, it's not popular. Anyone who uses "time to payout" as their main economic metric doesn't give a shit about declines.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    As long as you make enough in the first year to pay out the well who gives a fuck about the decline or eye beyond that.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    I know nothing of pumping climate change juice out of the ground.

    But aren't you just interested in the area under the curve, adjusted for NPV?

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