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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #1181
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    Surprised the Enbridge line 3 news wasn't posted as well

    https://business.financialpost.com/c...ent-adequate-2

    CALGARY – Enbridge Inc. has cleared the last remaining hurdle before it can begin construction on replacing its $9-billion Line 3 pipeline project running from Edmonton to Superior in Wisconsin.

    The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) voted 3-1 on Monday to both accept a revised environmental impact statement and to issue a ‘certificate of need’ for the Line 3 pipeline replacement project through the state, which resolves the last remaining regulatory hurdle before the 390,000-barrel-per-day pipeline project

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    @ExtraSlow that wings and a pint is looking mighty good right now

    Although this isn't the final hurdle ... They have 60 days to appeal it to the supreme court still (Which I assume they well just for the sake of trying to stall things further)
    I believe this can still be detailed by a liberal government that has decide it doesn't serve thier election chances. But I hope im wrong.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    I believe this can still be detailed by a liberal government that has decide it doesn't serve thier election chances. But I hope im wrong.
    Buying a pipeline for 4.7B only to kill it would be political suicide. You might please 10% of the country, but i would think the other 90% of the country would never forgive a stupid move like that and would be easy political points for opposition parties to use against you. It just doesn't make sense as a strategy, but i guess stranger things have happened.

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    Well let's not get hasty, we've seen what JT did with SNC . The difference is Quebec might lose money so "what scandal iz you speaking"
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabad66 View Post
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    Buying a pipeline for 4.7B only to kill it would be political suicide. You might please 10% of the country, but i would think the other 90% of the country would never forgive a stupid move like that and would be easy political points for opposition parties to use against you. It just doesn't make sense as a strategy, but i guess stranger things have happened.
    I hope you are right. I have become quite jaded and cynical.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabad66 View Post
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    Buying a pipeline for 4.7B only to kill it would be political suicide. You might please 10% of the country, but i would think the other 90% of the country would never forgive a stupid move like that and would be easy political points for opposition parties to use against you. It just doesn't make sense as a strategy, but i guess stranger things have happened.
    Trudeaus voters dgaf what he spends money on, or what return we get for it.

    End of the day the pipeline purchase is 1% of one years worth of stupid things Trudeau spends money on.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Trudeaus voters dgaf what he spends money on, or what return we get for it.

    End of the day the pipeline purchase is 1% of one years worth of stupid things Trudeau spends money on.
    lol hyperbole much?

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    Quote Originally Posted by A790 View Post
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    lol hyperbole much?
    Who cares about what you spend money on when budgets balance themselves.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    @ExtraSlow that wings and a pint is looking mighty good right now

    Although this isn't the final hurdle ... They have 60 days to appeal it to the supreme court still (Which I assume they well just for the sake of trying to stall things further)
    They will almost certainly appeal, but I would expect the SC will treat it the same way they did the reference case if they even agree to hear it - hear arguments, immediately confirm lower court ruling. They may choose to hear the appeal if for no other reason than to to set a strong precedent as to what "meaningful consultation" entails.

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    None of this seems to have helped the price of WCS - its been in a free fall since a year ago, having lost some 50% of its high of last year.

    Many folks here seemed to think the pipeline will save the AB OG industry - but fail to realize that pipelines wont help the low prices that much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    None of this seems to have helped the price of WCS - its been in a free fall since a year ago, having lost some 50% of its high of last year.

    Many folks here seemed to think the pipeline will save the AB OG industry - but fail to realize that pipelines wont help the low prices that much.
    Pipeline approvals don't move prices. Pipelines operating MIGHT move prices, but will be positive for the health of the industry.
    I still contend that the pipelines will NOT lead to a dramatic increase. In rig count or employment.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    You realize you are talking to the guy who made his own furniture out of salad bowls right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    None of this seems to have helped the price of WCS - its been in a free fall since a year ago, having lost some 50% of its high of last year.

    Many folks here seemed to think the pipeline will save the AB OG industry - but fail to realize that pipelines wont help the low prices that much.
    The pipeline hasn’t been built yet and it’s still not a 100% sure thing, so why would WCS prices be impacted?

    I don’t see any benefits for o&g materializing until we actually load a tanker from the pipeline

  13. #1193
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Pipeline approvals don't move prices. Pipelines operating MIGHT move prices, but will be positive for the health of the industry.
    I still contend that the pipelines will NOT lead to a dramatic increase. In rig count or employment.
    Yea I agree. But many people here seem to think the second coming of christ when the oil starts to flow through these new lines.

    Little do they know that the collapse of OG in AB is not the fault of NDP or Trudeau (they didnt really help either).

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    Quote Originally Posted by BerserkerCatSplat View Post
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    They will almost certainly appeal, but I would expect the SC will treat it the same way they did the reference case if they even agree to hear it - hear arguments, immediately confirm lower court ruling. They may choose to hear the appeal if for no other reason than to to set a strong precedent as to what "meaningful consultation" entails.
    A unanimous decision from today’s ruling makes an appeal even tougher. I hope the SC doesn’t even agree to hear it, but I think they will just to avoid any accusations/drama of not being fair to indigenous people

    On a related note, is there a master list of all litigation against the pipeline and the current status? It seems like we see these types of court decisions every month or two and I find it very hard to keep track of any remaining hurdles

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    None of this seems to have helped the price of WCS - its been in a free fall since a year ago, having lost some 50% of its high of last year.

    Many folks here seemed to think the pipeline will save the AB OG industry - but fail to realize that pipelines wont help the low prices that much.
    What’s really killing things is WTI and worldwide supply/demand prospects. We are at 54 bucks right now, backwardated to 50 for the foreseeable future. Pipelines do literally nothing to help that.

    WCS diffs are pretty stable at 18 to 19 USD/bbl, Ed light / MSW also stable at $8/bbl for a product stream more equivalent in quality to WTI. 8 bucks isn’t terribly far off what it costs to contract long term service down to cushing on the main line, and these pipelines that are coming on still have to make money so new lines aren’t going to change anything unless they are massively undersubscribed and trying to convince producers to move products on their systems. The WCS diff could tighten some, but it’s still a massively discounted product stream in terms of quality so it sure as hell isn’t going to drop to less than 10-12 dollars.

    I would go as far as to argue that pipelines matter less today than they have at most points over the past 5 years when we really needed them to be competitive with American Shale in the fight for world market share, damage has been done and we won’t be sitting at the big boy table for a long time.

    Why bother investing into such an environment, survival mode is the way to go. Companies have infinite inventory, and are transitioning to leaner businesses targeting free cash flow generation rather than growth.

    Sucks to be a player trying to green light a massive oil sands project. I actually have no idea why Teck would want to be approved at this point.
    Last edited by killramos; 02-04-2020 at 06:44 PM.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
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    fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yolobimmer View Post
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    guessing who I might be, psychologizing me with your non existent degree.

  16. #1196
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    Oilsands projects take forever to start up.

    Pipelines still matter, the main problem right now is getting the product out of Western Canada (and that includes BC) in a manner that companies don't bid themselves down to get the oil into the pipelines.

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    Whens the govt expected to make a decision on teck's mine?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nzwasp View Post
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    Whens the govt expected to make a decision on teck's mine?
    Before the end of the month

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    Quote Originally Posted by arcticcat522 View Post
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    Before the end of the month
    No, they already stated they (liberals) can dither/delay if they want.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    No, they already stated they (liberals) can dither/delay if they want.
    Should have guessed.

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