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Thread: $30 barrel oil?

  1. #901
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    Prices up 10-15% right now

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    Quote Originally Posted by roopi View Post
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    Prices up 10-15% right now
    Yep, initial gap trade at 17:00MST hit $63.40. Almost $9(!!) more than Friday afternoon.

    Tomorrow will be very interesting.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Well, I'm not big on day to day fluctuations. Very few barrels are truly traded at spot prices. What I want to see is a change in the futures market. That's what sets capital budgets.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Well, I'm not big on day to day fluctuations. Very few barrels are truly traded at spot prices. What I want to see is a change in the futures market. That's what sets capital budgets.
    I wonder how / if this will even affect the market. They’ll just supply oil from their reserves to make up the difference and then once the facilities are online they’ll top up their reserves again. Saudi has been running below capacity for a while so it’s not like they don’t have the supply to keep up
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    I wonder how / if this will even affect the market. They’ll just supply oil from their reserves to make up the difference and then once the facilities are online they’ll top up their reserves again. Saudi has been running below capacity for a while so it’s not like they don’t have the supply to keep up
    For sure there is no supply issue. I'm too lazy to look it up but they can supply from storage for weeks I think. I'll probably read that article again tomorrow and post it if someone doesn't first.

    The short term impact is mostly psychological. If there is long term downtime for those facilities, it could have meaningful effect on global supply.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    For sure there is no supply issue. I'm too lazy to look it up but they can supply from storage for weeks I think. I'll probably read that article again tomorrow and post it if someone doesn't first.

    The short term impact is mostly psychological. If there is long term downtime for those facilities, it could have meaningful effect on global supply.
    USA alone can almost supply the world for a week. 630mmbbls in storage locally.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Anyone have access to what Cal20 is trading on strip?

    I won’t get reports until tomorrow AM.

    Edit: ~$55, up a bit over 2.50 from Friday’s settle. That’s encouraging, but really shows nothing has changed with all this.
    Last edited by killramos; 09-16-2019 at 08:05 AM.
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    The primary problem with oil is that it is traded mostly for US dollars. You could have a Trillion US dollars, but that still does not buy you Greenland. Likewise 2 Trillion would not buy Alberta.

    Venezuela has the right idea, but is bringing it in from a position of economic weakness.
    Greta the destroyer.

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    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tr...222107215.html

    Those salt mines contain a significant reserve, but it definitely scares everyone when they pull even a tiny bit out. Power starts to shift again on the idea that Venezuela will be able to weather out any storm and the middle east will not be conquerable.

    Mad Max is literally only 4-6 months of Strategic reserve away. I've always felt that the greater media always downplayed the depletion of oil capacity. Its worthy of note that Canadian oil companies are under obligation to keep Canadian homes warm, and excesses go to the USA.

    Much like water, the man that is closest to the first tap has all the say in whether or not a Coca-Cola plant gets to run another day.

    Its times like this that I'm glad that I've passed middle age - these young people might have a rough time with the changes in available carbon energy.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 09-16-2019 at 08:53 AM.
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    Y'know what. I think the 400 to 800 MW solar electric project in Alberta actually spooked the US. Seriously, we are in the heart of carbon country and we are installing solar panels by the millions of panels.

    In which case - Well played!
    Greta the destroyer.

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    I am absolutely stunned that this multi billion dollar facility had zero anti-drone equipment, or at least none that I have read about so far. Quite the oversight IMO.

    I am reading 2-6 weeks until it's back up, so probably not much of an impact on the forward strips.

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    What a change in speculator sentiment - back in ~2010 if this happened, the reaction would have been insane.

    Does tell you a story though - speculators not involved anymore? = OG on the way out.

    Some analysts are predicting that, with the rise of EVs and renewable in the next 10 years, esp in the EU, that OG needs to re-balance its price to 20$bbl - good bye AB oil if true.

    https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-...petroleum-age/

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    What a change in speculator sentiment - back in ~2010 if this happened, the reaction would have been insane.

    Does tell you a story though - speculators not involved anymore? = OG on the way out.

    Some analysts are predicting that, with the rise of EVs and renewable in the next 10 years, esp in the EU, that OG needs to re-balance its price to 20$bbl - good bye AB oil if true.

    https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-...petroleum-age/
    I've read a couple articles that say things like that. I don't disagree with the concept, but I think the numbers and timelines are totally wrong.
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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    What a change in speculator sentiment - back in ~2010 if this happened, the reaction would have been insane.

    Does tell you a story though - speculators not involved anymore? = OG on the way out.

    Some analysts are predicting that, with the rise of EVs and renewable in the next 10 years, esp in the EU, that OG needs to re-balance its price to 20$bbl - good bye AB oil if true.

    https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-...petroleum-age/
    People were saying that 15 years ago and not much has changed. Maybe eventually, but we are way more than 10 years away from that sort of thing IMHO.

    When I was younger, I thought by 2020 we would be flying around like The Jetsons

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitsu3000gt View Post
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    I am absolutely stunned that this multi billion dollar facility had zero anti-drone equipment, or at least none that I have read about so far. Quite the oversight IMO.

    I am reading 2-6 weeks until it's back up, so probably not much of an impact on the forward strips.
    It actually had anti-air middle launchers on site, however the drones (apparently) were too small to target with them
    Nolan

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    Quote Originally Posted by pheoxs View Post
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    It actually had anti-air middle launchers on site, however the drones (apparently) were too small to target with them
    Yeah I am surprised it didn't have airport-grade anti drone stuff. For that kind of facility and operation, it wouldn't have even been a noticeable cost and would pale in comparison to the cost of their existing AA systems for full size aircraft. I suspect it's on their shopping list now and someone is out of a job haha.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    What a change in speculator sentiment - back in ~2010 if this happened, the reaction would have been insane.

    Does tell you a story though - speculators not involved anymore? = OG on the way out.

    Some analysts are predicting that, with the rise of EVs and renewable in the next 10 years, esp in the EU, that OG needs to re-balance its price to 20$bbl - good bye AB oil if true.

    https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-...petroleum-age/
    USA is a price setter now. And there's lot of spare oil literally floating around.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitsu3000gt View Post
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    People were saying that 15 years ago and not much has changed. Maybe eventually, but we are way more than 10 years away from that sort of thing IMHO.

    When I was younger, I thought by 2020 we would be flying around like The Jetsons
    I thought that had more to do with 'peak oil' phenom?

    This is more related to the rise of EV's and the lessening of ICE vehicles. Legislation in the EU (banning ICE) is definitely going that way and could artificially deconstruct the OG paradigm quickly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
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    What a change in speculator sentiment - back in ~2010 if this happened, the reaction would have been insane.

    Does tell you a story though - speculators not involved anymore? = OG on the way out.

    Some analysts are predicting that, with the rise of EVs and renewable in the next 10 years, esp in the EU, that OG needs to re-balance its price to 20$bbl - good bye AB oil if true.

    https://investors-corner.bnpparibas-...petroleum-age/
    People always forget the key part of the rise of EVs. Just as oil is a finite resource so is lithium. As of 2018 there is estimated 14 million tons of lithium in the world with over half of that in Chile.

    Right now nearly half of all lithium mined goes to battery production (it’s also used for glass, lubrications, polymers, and medical as well). The typical model S uses 63kg of lithium [2016 figure]

    About 100,000 tons were mined last year, assuming half went to batteries and half of that was just to Tesla (estimating) that’s only 400k cars max they could produce in theory.

    Unless they’ve shifted to a more efficient metal or better battery design there just isn’t the possibility for EVs to take over a majority of vehicles for many many decades to come without huge amount of expansions with lithium mines.

    And the batteries only last a couple decades as well. It’ll be curious to see how we deal with supply issues down the road and used batteries becoming an expensive commodity
    Nolan

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    Don't be silly, the manufacturers of lithium batteries will be virtuous and true.

    Also lithium mines will be the most environmentally friendly open pit mines you'll ever see.

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