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Thread: Greece Default Looming?

  1. #21
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    Greece in numbers
    €320bn
    Greece's debt mountain
    €240bn
    European bailout
    €56bn Greece owes Germany
    177% country's debt-to-GDP ratio
    25% fall in GDP since 2010
    26% Greek unemployment rate
    Source: ECB, IMF, Greek National Statistics Agency

    http://m.bbc.com/news/business-32448638

    1 May: Greece has to pay €200m of loan interest to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), although it may be given a few days grace owing to the long bank holiday weekend.
    8 May: Greece has to roll over €1.4bn worth of maturing 6-month Treasury bills.
    11 May: Crucial meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels - Greece likely to be high on the agenda.
    12 May: Greece due to repay €760m of IMF loan
    15 May: Greece has to roll over €1.4bn worth of maturing 3-month Treasury bills.
    End of May: the country needs to find about €2.5bn to pay salaries and pensions.
    30 June: The €240bn bailout agreement between the eurozone and Greece officially expires.
    June and July: €6.7bn due to be repaid to the European Central Bank.

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    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...t-to-imf-nears

    Tuesday could be the day. €750 million "minimum payment" due.
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    Originally posted by ZenOps
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...t-to-imf-nears

    Tuesday could be the day. €750 million "minimum payment" due.
    They will default, if not this week then by June. I see no way that it is possible for them to move forward without massive societal changes there.

    And I don't think EU voters would allow it. They've already had billions of their tax dollars spent on someone who doesn't want to change.

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    CBC News - Greece says it has no plans for capital controls as debt crisis deepens.

    Of course, they wouldn't advertise the plans for capital controls, because that would just speed up the flight of capital from the country. They've removed over $30 Billion euro from the country already. More is being moved every day.

    Anyone want to bet on the date that Greece is out of the EU and has to stop using the Euro?

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    Greece can actually go quite a while without money per say.

    They have islands. Government assets like ancient prison islands, abandoned monestary islands, and uninhabited islands.

    All of which they can pledge as collateral to the Chinese, who would and are gladly buying them up, at least on paper..

    China will bankroll Greece for far longer than I think the EU would normally consider possible. An island is like putting up a gold watch as money in a poker match, and Greece has got a lot of islands - which means they can keep the game going for a lot longer than reasonable otherwise.

    I would not be surprised at all if China bought some coral reef off of Greece, and simply built an island themselves.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 05-25-2015 at 11:17 AM.
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    Originally posted by ExtraSlow
    .

    Anyone want to bet on the date that Greece is out of the EU and has to stop using the Euro?
    Has to? I think they'll have a parallel currency at first. If they default, I say Dec 31/2015 is when the Euro is no longer allowed.

    If you simply mean when they default, I say that the gov has no access to more euros as of June 31/2015.

    I am also betting they default on June 5th... Or the EU politicians are surely crazy, and will continue to throw money after a company that has zero interest in reform.

    Greece should never have been in the EU, and the corruption by their politicians in the early millenium... Its impossible to describe the corruption.

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1

    I am also betting they default on June 5th..
    Sure, want to put some $ on it?

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    Last edited by 01RedDX; 09-24-2020 at 09:04 PM.

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    Originally posted by 01RedDX

    I think you have a problem...

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    Haha I'd throw down $50. Are we talking technical default?

    By default, I mean miss a payment because that is a default in my books. So $50 that Greece does not pay the IMF $300mil Euros on June 5th

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1
    Greece should never have been in the EU, and the corruption by their politicians in the early millenium... Its impossible to describe the corruption.
    hmm, how so? Or shall I ask how do you know about this? Sorry I just find this intriguing.
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    Originally posted by Graham_A_M
    hmm, how so? Or shall I ask how do you know about this? Sorry I just find this intriguing.
    I just read a lot

    You'll notice most of it doesn't get talked about/discussed in the current news as its not "politically correct" to suggest that the European Union, which currently is a FISCAL union but wants to be a POLITICAL union, may have allowed Greece to become a member due to the politics of the European Union.

    At the end of the day, Greece was loaned untold BILLIONS with reckless abandon, and then used those billions to prop up false GDP numbers. It basically was like a governmental version of the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the US. Everything was all good until the economy hit the skids. The Greece government used said billions to fund everything under the sun, with little thought of the requirement to pay it back (its like free money!!)

    Its fairly straightforward number-wise, the EU has set rules for a country to be eligible for membership. Greece did not (never has) met those rules. And the only reason the EU is struggling so hard to throw billions of tax payers dollars at Greece that they will never see come back is because if Greece leaves, the house of cards that is the EU crumbles.

    Its political skulduggery at its finest. The proper solution is to kick greece the fuck out of the EU and ride it out and learn from their mistakes. But they won't, because we blame our governments out west here for never doing right by their constituents, but the cronies in Europe are 10 times worse as far as I can tell

    Not to mention the simple fact that Greece can't even do proper tax collection

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    Last edited by kaput; 03-12-2019 at 12:49 AM.

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    Last edited by 01RedDX; 09-24-2020 at 09:03 PM.

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    Originally posted by kaput


    Why / how would this cause the EU to break apart? I've never understood how that works.
    The EU is a fiscal union that masquerades as (and end goal is) political union. They want a United States of Europe.

    If the fiscal union falters, the dream of a political union shatters. The EU relies on the Euro (the currency) to hold everyone together fiscally. If countries can utilize and then leave the union currency whenever they want, it completely defeats the purpose of the Euro. This will severely distort markets, as you start betting on whether the euro will succeed or falter. It would be like if the US could just start using cdn dollars whenever they wanted.

    I'm explaining it poorly. I am trying to find an article that highlights the issues. Again, it is tough because being non-politically correct is so taboo in European news.

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    Its worthy of note that California did pay its goverment employees in IOU's instead of US digital dollars for a short period after the financial and local housing crash in July of 2009.

    Technically, that avoided a default - because there were able to use the digital dollars that otherwise would have to be paid to the government employees right away to pay the creditors instead. Then a few months later, they just got the Feds to print more money - and it was all good.

    Every govt worker in California knew the IOU's were not money, but that there was a good chance that the US govt would simply print more money in the near future to cover it. And thats exactly what happened. Playing chicken with an imaginary digital car, isn't playing chicken - because you can infinitely print as many US digital dollars as you might ever need.

    Very few people would consider not paying a local government employee as a true default. Only if you do not pay the international bondholders is that a default (and has caused wars before, and probably will again)
    Last edited by ZenOps; 05-27-2015 at 11:50 AM.
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    An interesting, short, but insightful article by Macleans on Greece.

    http://www.macleans.ca/culture/books...conomic-ruins/

    I don't particularily like zerohedge, but I find it is a great aggregate to combine all news together and then presents an opinion on it:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ate-draft-plan

    Now, my understanding is the IMF has given them an extra 15 days past June 5th (something like June 21st) when they can make a lump sum payment on all their debts.

    I count missing the June 5th payment as a default. Most say it isn't, but its semantics at that point. If there is any money left in Greece by the end of this week, I'll be shocked. They don't want to clean up their act, so let em burn!

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    Yes, Greek viewpoint on paying taxes is clear to me.

    Throughout their history, they have been occupied by foreign (other European nations) entities multiple times. It was very patriotic to not pay into the government, as it was oftentimes a despotic military ruler who would get the proceeds, namely Hitler and other occupiers.

    Thus, when things get bad - Greeks know enough to transact in cash.

    Its hard to think of being a patriot in not paying taxes for most countries, especially Canada - because we have never lost a war to the point where we had to pay yearly taxes to the conqueror.

    The USA has technically had its most bloody war, because people called themselves patriots in refusing to pay taxation to the British monarchy a thousand miles away, instead keeping the wealth local for neighbors... So exactly who is right and wrong in that situation?

    Its worthy of note, that many Greek banks close at 2 pm.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 06-03-2015 at 09:34 AM.
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    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b913c...#axzz3clq91RmZ

    Here it comes boys and girls!

    Unless there is a miracle, Greece is going to default. In my opinion, Greece already has since they bundled the payments which screams "we have no money".

    Oil is all over the place, the stock market seems pretty up and down the past couple days.

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    California has more debt and contagion than Greece. Greece defaulting would mean nothing in real terms. The biggest fear is psychological and how that would affect people's thought processes in terms of investing/lending.

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