Imminent Housing Crash

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Swank]

I hardly heard a peep the first 3 months my place was listed, then when I re-listed it was showing a few times a day and sold within a week. It's a really odd market right now

[birdman86]

Originally posted by Tik-Tok


If you don't currently own, I would wait until winter, months after all the seasonal O&G workers don't get re-hired after the summer lull, and start getting desperate.

We were just talking about this the other day. Lots of debt covenants etc. are based on trailing 12 month data so all else constant we haven't seen the worst yet.

I don't get the market though, I used to see new listings getting posted all day every day. Now I get one or two alerts a week, if that. Searching condo's in downtown area.

[71/454]

Pretty sure housing was on its way down due to the oil market anyway, just look at kijiji the last few months its been a fire sale of the toys. Blaming the NDP for it is, well, something the Conservatives would do.

Originally posted by Cos




So my speculation (leaving politics out of it).

- May - June 2015 - Stagnant housing an employment while everyone wait's and sees what happens. During that time oil will touch $70 a barrel but settle around $67-$68. NDP will announce royalty review.

- July 2015 - During stampede or directly after some small sales and signs of hope will happen, either service companies will cut rates more or oil companies will open their pockets. Can't tell.

- August - September 2015 - Province will have settled into a rythm and things will be about the same as the were the day before the election. Muted. NDP panel will release findings of royalty review. Will include a modest increase from the 8% to somewhere in the 12-14% range which puts us still below most US plays. This is also only impacted by drilling or extraction on crown land, so oil company stocks that are impacted by it (MEG, etc) will tank while private company stocks will skyrocket (Free Hold Energy Corp). A new thread on beyond about people moving out of the province will ensue

- October 2015, oil will be steadily above $70 but below $80 a barrel. Housing is stagnant going into winter.

- Spring 2016 - Back to the Alberta way of huge growth in the housing market and growth. I have no idea what oil prices will do.

I agree with you on everything except the royalty review. The federal NDP wants to run on the momentum of the big change in Alberta so there will not be any big changes before the Federal election. I tend to believe the NDP want to stay in power as long as possible so you will see a more conservative NDP than ever in Alberta.

[Cos]

.

[benyl]

I think we will be lucky if oil stays in the $60s by the end of the year. Cos, $80 is very optimistic. If Iran starts exporting oil will drop $10-15 per barrel.

[Unknown303]

Originally posted by Cos


I WANT to agree with you because that is what I would do, but on the doorsteps we heard from a ton of people that they think the oil companies are stealing our resources. Even a symbolic increase will matter. The reason I say that is because if Prentice had increased corp tax 0.5% or something, which frankly is symbolic, he would probably still be the premier right now.

[gwill]

i thought i would read a bit about the real estate market not the NDP. This is in the wrong section....

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by gwill
i thought i would read a bit about the real estate market not the NDP. This is in the wrong section....

Orange wave bro. You feel it?



Talked to someone a colleague today and he is putting upgrading on hold and may even downgrade to wait this out.

But I think $20K bill from CRA is influencing his judgement more than NDP coming into power.

[gwill]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

It is hard not to tie them into speculation on what will happen, they are a major factor

IN addition to influencing the economy, the NDP are also making changes to mortgage regulations and fees, along with trying to promote affordable housing.

I actually think that low cost housing and lower end condos along with entry level homes might experience an increase in sales, even modest market growth.

The NDP removing any extra closing costs from the budget won't sway buyers into the low end market. Just like an extra $1500 on a home on closing wouldn't effect 99.9% of buyers in case the odd fee stays.

Those who will buy will buy regardless of the NDP or the Budget the PC's put through.

One only needs to look at the changes to the mortgage terms from 35-30yrs then to 25. Every change people cried and hollered.. sort of like you and your NDP obssession but the world didn't end and people kept buying. In fact sales didn't slow down at all when these terms changed.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[A790]

I sure hope there isn't a crash since we just bought a new place that we take possession of late-June. Suppose it's too late now lol

[Ekliptix]

I'm lucking out moving home to Calgary from Houston in 2 months after selling my Houston house for +25% since buying it 4yrs. And the 20% exchange rate dif right now combined with and a declining housing market in Calgary is like winning the lottery. I plan to rent for 1 year and see how housing prices drop before hopefully buying an acreage with a big ass shop. I'm hoping for at least a 10% drop in 1 year from now. Man, the mortgage debt to income ratio in Calgary is nuts but I suppose it motivates a person to earn a paycheck.

[kaput]

.

[01RedDX]

.

[A790]

Originally posted by 01RedDX
Did you buy it to live in or to flip? If you plan on living in it for years then you shouldn't worry about anything except making the mtg payments.

We're good on that. We're planning on holding on to it for at least 7 years.

[16hypen3sp]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Anybody considering a move as a result of the NDP?

Moving up / second property if prices drop?
downsizing to mitigate equity loss?
Moving out of Calgary/Alberta?

(This should really be a poll)

There have been a few families in the town I'm in that have just packed up and left. House is sitting empty and for sale. Quite surprised to see it while driving around. Even my gf has noticed it and she doesn't really notice those things.

Don't exactly know where they went. But I'd venture a guess that they went back "home."

[phreezee]

I think it will be a combination of royalty increase and a carbon tax they will implement. As for realty moves, I think it would be prudent to wait 2 years before making any plans.

[topsecret]

Originally posted by 7thgenvic
Prices in Calgary are already stupidly over-priced.

Again. I'm waiting on the fence. I put a offer in a house last week, and it was rejected. Now the idiot just lowered his price and called my realtor back.

SORRRYYYYY.

Again. Time to wait for another 7 months to buy again.

How many times have you said this and waited for the prices to drop? I never understand this mentality, if I had said this every time I went to buy a house I wouldn't own I would still be renting, I understand right now there is doubt...however I sold my house after a week on the market and I bought my new one after it was on the market for two days, my old house went up 30% in value (desirable area in the SW and did some reno's) The new house I got is in the NW now and I still think I got a good deal...even if it drops 10% I won't be looking to sell any time soon! Right now is a buyers market, if you are ready to buy and you're approved go around and shoot out some low balls, maybe you can take advantage of someone desperate to sell and you can make mortgage payments instead of renting.