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Thread: Imminent Housing Crash

  1. #821
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    Originally posted by Buster


    Cool. Not advising for or against anything. But a rental property is by definition highly levered, il-liquid and un-diversified (just like any RE).

    In many ways it's swimming with the sharks. So keep your head up, and like any investment, be prepared to liquidate and walk away from a loss if you think the trade is moving against you.
    I honestly think this is the type of behaviour that leads to the "pigs get slaughtered mentality". I'm sitting on the sidelines right now just waiting for an opportunity to buy up a few rental units (likely 6-12 months from now).

    RE is much like any other investment - people who try to time "the bottom" usually miss, and selling in a panic is one of the worst possible things you could do.

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    There is also the assumption that each tenant will perform as intended. Rather, unforeseen assholes could turn up and ruin any sort of long term projection. There is certainly an amount of mitigation but it's hardly low risk.

    My taxes and mortgage are being paid which is great but my condo fees aren't covered so I'm negative cash flow. I don't think I'll have to drop my price again so I'm not feeling like things will worsen. Here's hoping I guess lol. Cheaper than selling in this market, just gotta be patient and be thankful most expenses are being paid for by someone else.
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Originally posted by liquid1010


    I honestly think this is the type of behaviour that leads to the "pigs get slaughtered mentality". I'm sitting on the sidelines right now just waiting for an opportunity to buy up a few rental units (likely 6-12 months from now).

    RE is much like any other investment - people who try to time "the bottom" usually miss, and selling in a panic is one of the worst possible things you could do.
    Who said anything about panic selling?

    An investment should be the result of critical analysis, some assumptions, and a variety of data points. None of those factors are static. So if you reach a different conclusion this week, than you did last week - then maybe selling is the best course of action. It doesn't matter if you take a loss or have realized a gain. Staying objective is very difficult, if not impossible.

    Besides, panic selling is not the worst outcome. Ask the people who held Nortel to the end. I bet they wished they had "panic sold" about 100 times.

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    Originally posted by msommers
    There is also the assumption that each tenant will perform as intended. Rather, unforeseen assholes could turn up and ruin any sort of long term projection. There is certainly an amount of mitigation but it's hardly low risk.

    My taxes and mortgage are being paid which is great but my condo fees aren't covered so I'm negative cash flow. I don't think I'll have to drop my price again so I'm not feeling like things will worsen. Here's hoping I guess lol. Cheaper than selling in this market, just gotta be patient and be thankful most expenses are being paid for by someone else.
    Yes. Absolutely. Well said.
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

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    As for selling. You still need a place to live? lol
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

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    Originally posted by max_boost
    As for selling. You still need a place to live? lol
    Well, seems like many have multiple properties.

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    Originally posted by Buster
    haha....that'll teach me to talk in absolutes.

    Good job.

    Waht was your business in, generally speaking?
    Car dealership. A small one only about 4 years old at the time of the recession. That’s an industry I wouldn’t start a business in again as AMVIC is pretty corrupt.

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    Originally posted by Zhao Kan


    Outlier yes, but not luck. And lots of things are in the realm of possibilities for people, they just don't want to do it.

    They need their fully financed new SUV every few years, and they need all the latest gadgets: the biggest tv, the newest phone, tablets, laptops, cameras, designer clothes, etc. ...and they are completely incapable of downsizing anything. They refuse to share residence or move back in... even if we're talking saving 6 figures (or gaining 6 figures in equity, or whatever you want to call it) in less than a year?

    Buster was saying it never happens that home owners do that, and my post was directed at him saying yes, I did do what he said no one ever does (I know it's rare for people to do that). What I did was somewhat annoying and made 6 months pretty hectic (moving stuff 3 times sucked lol), but it was easily one of my best decisions.

    I learned before about hesitating with seeing markets change. I was slow in the uptake in the last recession we had and lost my business. I was blind to the signs that it wasn't worth weathering that storm, and I should have shut it down the instant I saw the market change (because it was like someone threw a switch for my business in that one. one minute its good, and the next costs are skyrocketing and at the same time no one is buying) with a lot of money in my pocket, rather then delaying and being stuck bleeding money out (because shutting down a business takes a long time and took me about a year) and ending up with zero (thankfully I only had a lease for a year i didn't need to break or sublet).

    I'm actually somewhat tempted to list my place on the market again and see if i can take my on paper equity and make it a reality, but i think my wife would kill me if we had to move again this year lol. So now you can probably lump me in with everyone else again lol.
    I know many did what you did and level up for free because of upswing.

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    .
    Last edited by Cos; 12-21-2016 at 10:58 AM.
    Originally posted by adam c

    Line goes up, line goes down, line does squiggly things and fucks Alberta
    "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones"

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    Originally posted by max_boost


    Well one can view it as opportunity. Buy low sell high. Some are ok with break even cash flow, some don't think it's worth it. If you have someone paying your mortgage for the next 25 years then why not? It is a free house and you become a slumlord. I know that's the Sorath way to riches.
    lol kasem. Now I’m picturing him renting out places to a bunch of 20 year old street racers he just sold cars to.

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    Originally posted by Cos


    click for larger version
    » Click image for larger version
    Ride it right, you double your money every 5 years.

    Ride it wrong once, you go bankrupt.

    Or you keep riding it for a 1-5% annual return.

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    I'll be in Canmore and Banff next week, it'll be interesting to see the windows filled in realtor offices. Based on my past observations, Canmore has to have the largest number of properties for sale per resident than any small city in Canada. It is worse than the beach community my parents kept property at, half the town had a realtor sign standing just in case someone was interested.

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    Originally posted by Zhao Kan


    lol kasem. Now I’m picturing him renting out places to a bunch of 20 year old street racers he just sold cars to.
    Now that's an idea Kris

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    Sorath is acquiring property all over. Bump this thread is 5 years and if things recover, he will be
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

  15. #835
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    Originally posted by max_boost
    Sorath is acquiring property all over. Bump this thread is 5 years and if things recover, he will be
    He already and lookin' to level up?

  16. #836
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    .
    Last edited by kaput; 03-12-2019 at 12:17 AM.

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    Originally posted by A790

    He already and lookin' to level up?
    Ya he was baller when he was 16 lol.

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    Pooched in Priddis
    November 1st, 2015 | Book Updates | E-mail this blog post to a friend



    Forty clicks outside of Calgary, where the rich O&G execs used to flee to their estates in Priddis, things are unhappy. It was just twenty months ago, when oil was $100.55 a barrel, that Sotheby’s listed the most expensive house ever to hit the market in Alberta – $38 million for a 5,000-foot pile of excess on 200 acres of ranchland.

    Things sure look different when viewed through the lens of $46 oil. If a recent auction means anything, and it seems to mean plenty, luxury real estate has also declined by more than half. Ten weeks ago an auction in Priddis saw a $2.9 million, 5,500-foot mansion sell for a discount of 62%. The buyer paid $1.1 million – the price of a dumpy 1970s Vancouver Special. A neighbouring estate suffered the same fate, tumbling from $3.9 million to a mere $1.5 million, or less than the materials used to build it.

    PRIDDIS


    Appraised $2.9 million, sold $1.1 million
    ___________________________________________________

    Neither sale was included in stats compiled by the Calgary Real Estate Board. That’s helped Cowtown realtors maintain the fiction that prices dipped a little as oil collapsed, but have since stabilized with the market able to “weather the storm.” The official count to the end of October looks like this: sales down 31%, listings up 19% and average prices lower by just 6%. This is amusing, and bitter, to people who can’t sell their homes unless they’re willing to take a discount closer to 15%.

    Plus, there’s more to come.

    Shell pulled the plug on a major energy project last week, walking away from an investment of $2 billion. Weekly we hear of more majors punting workers. It looks like the oil patch has so far shed 11% of its workforce – some of the best-paying jobs in the nation. Alberta lost about 54,000 jobs in the past 12 months, or 3% of the entire workforce, and Saskatchewan almost 7,000.

    No wonder the number of folks moving to Alberta has crashed 50%, or that real estate values in most of the province – along with Saskatchewan – will follow. Nor is the rest of Canada immune, as this pathetic blog has been trying to point out for a while. In vain.

    Everybody should pay attention to what’s going on. Oil – our largest export – has lost more than half its value. Thus, our national income has dropped. Prices for copper, nickel and grains have fallen 50% or more within the past five years. Now we have slagging demand in China, where GDP growth has fallen the most since the financial crisis. Construction and manufacturing activity in that country – the largest consumers of steel, zinc and copper – have plopped.

    There are 400,000 more tons of copper being produced a year than the world needs. The US has so much oil (and is running out of places to put the stuff) that it will soon begin selling off a hunk of its vast underground strategic reserves. And the weird thing is that unlike the last time we had a commodity collapse (2009) the world is now growing and expanding, not contracting into recession.

    This suggests the commodity surplus might be structural. We’ve become too efficient at digging up, growing and sucking stuff, while at the same time personal technology is changing the world. Like shuttering stores and sending retail sales online.

    Maybe this will ultimately be good for the planet, but it’s tough news for a country which has lots of land, oodles of commodity resources, and relatively few people, busy selling each other million-dollar houses with borrowed money. Look at the at StatCan’s latest payroll report. Damn scary.

    BTW, don’t confuse the government’s ‘labour force survey’ with its ‘payroll employment and hours’ survey – they’re different ways of measuring essentially the same thing. The first one showed a modest jobs gain in August, and the latter is evidencing a jobs disaster – the loss of 58,600 positions in the same month. The media feeds off the first one. Economists believe the second is closer to the truth, since it includes actual data from the CRA.

    So, here’s what to focus on: wages for Canadians as a whole are shrinking (by about 8% a year), and in the last 12 months we created 0.3% more jobs while the population increased 1.3%. At the same time, the value of our exports declined, decreasing national wealth. So we did what? We elected a government promising to fix things by taxing the successful, spending billions a year we don’t have, making it harder for citizens to save and giving people money for having children. At least we’re amusing.

    I think they’re getting all this in Priddis. Losing half your equity does that.

    Of course, the really smart money saw it coming. Still does.

  19. #839
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    ^^^

    That home actually sold for 1.725m...which in my opinion was pretty fair market.

    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451841014

    There is no way even in last years hot market that home would have fetched over 2m

    Here is all activity in Hawks Landing..(top sale 1.525m)
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451848938

    All activity in Hawks Nest..(top sale 1.725m)
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451855790






    This is another listing by the same agent who represented the Priddis homes.

    6.9 Million dollar price tag
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451861704

    This is that same home today listed with a different agent..at what is now fair market value.

    3.7 million dollar price tag.
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451866776


    Last edited by JordanLotoski; 11-02-2015 at 07:25 PM.

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  20. #840
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    auction website say home sold for $1,536,015
    http://www.conciergeauctions.com/auc...l-1w0/#forward

    jordan, do auction listings go through a real estate agent? was this sale reported to MLS? is commission standard for auctions?


    Originally posted by JordanLotoski
    ^^^

    That home actually sold for 1.725m...which in my opinion was pretty fair market.

    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451841014

    There is no way even in last years hot market that home would have fetched over 2m

    Here is all activity in Hawks Landing..(top sale 1.525m)
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451848938

    All activity in Hawks Nest..(top sale 1.725m)
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451855790






    This is another listing by the same agent who represented the Priddis homes.

    6.9 Million dollar price tag
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451861704

    This is that same home today listed with a different agent..at what is now fair market value.

    3.7 million dollar price tag.
    http://matrix.crebtools.com/Matrix/P...x?ID=451866776



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