Imminent Housing Crash

[Kari_310]

Originally posted by SkiBum5.0
After living in Texas for a while now, Alberta needs to look long and hard at how TX has attracted new industries. Texas gets ~12.5% of it's GDP from Energy. Recently, major industries have chosen Texas over other states thanks to cost of living and low-tax environments.

Toyota chose Plano for it's US headquarters, and numerous tech companies have chosen Austin as their home base. Why? Low corp and personal tax rates, and a good standard of living.

It may also be time to look at other forms of government revenue such as toll roads. I really think the pay-to-play strategy works. Those that want to get to work fast, pay to use the EZ Tag lane.

Aren't the property taxes in texas crazy high?

[roopi]

Originally posted by Kari_310


Aren't the property taxes in texas crazy high?

One of the highest in the USA. However the cost of real estate is relatively low compared to many states.

[chkolny541]

Originally posted by roopi


One of the highest in the USA. However the cost of real estate is relatively low compared to many states.

Thats a bit shit, at least with higher property value you can pull your money back out when it comes time to sell, with high property tax it just vanishes

[suntan]

Texas has no state income tax...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ercchry


Just looking at how the o&g pie has shrunk since the 80s, I'd say we are already adapting to change

Perhaps. However how many of those other slices of the pie service or are reliant on a health O&G sector.

It is nice to say there is a strong manufacturing sector... however if they only manufacture oil rigs and pipelines the argument is pretty much moot.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by sputnik


Perhaps. However how many of those other slices of the pie service or are reliant on a health O&G sector.

It is nice to say there is a strong manufacturing sector... however if they only manufacture oil rigs and pipelines the argument is pretty much moot.

Not really though, just means they start heading south instead of north... you saw this in the rig servicing companies in he last couple years. Sending people down south to help the Americans become "self sufficient" and in trump's America that will probably get stronger... as long as he doesn't shut down our border

[phreezee]

Bumping old thread. Been keeping an eye on the market ever since I sold in 2015 and it's steadily been declining since then.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...drop-1.4664709

Calgary sales down nearly 20 per cent
National home sales fell 2.9 per cent from March to April, and were down 13.9 per cent from this time last year, the CREA reported.

In Calgary, sales in the first quarter of 2018 were down 18 per cent from last year and 24 per cent below long term averages, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB).

House sales in Calgary 25% below long-term averages, CREB says

[Twin_Cam_Turbo]

I’ve been watching the market but I’m getting ready to buy another small place in the next year or so I think.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ExtraSlow]

[ercchry]

Meanwhile the people that bought my house I sold in 2015 have it listed for another $100k over what they paid

[16hypen3sp]

Bumping....

What is your guys' outlook on the current housing market as well as next 2-5 years? Some guys I work with are saying the worst is still to come. They are talking apocalyptic stuff here.... 50%+ lower values than current.

I did some research for my local area, Red Deer, and found the following from a recent article: A Century 21 survey of house prices across Canada released on Wednesday estimates single detached house prices in Red Deer fell in the first six months of the year by about six per cent year over year — to $262 per square foot from $276. That would see a $414,000 home reduced to $393,000.

Pochylko says that number is not far off the mark. In Red Deer, between 2017 and 2018, house prices dropped about 5.5 per cent and are heading toward a seven per cent drop this year.

Multiple Listing Service statistics for all of central Alberta show that year over year median house prices have dropped 2.2 per cent to $318,000, continuing — with a few spikes along the way — a downward trend from the first quarter in 2015, when the median price was $350,000.

I am thinking about selling my house and building a new one in the County of Red Deer. My timeline line for doing this is in 2021. Some people are telling me to just sell the house right now and go back to renting.

Do you guys have any plans given the current market conditions?

https://www.reddeeradvocate.com/news...n-soft-survey/

[Lex350]

I sold my place in August. I want to downsize. Although the prices have come down I still came out in the positive $110K from when I bought it in 2009 so I can't complain. Bought into a smaller townhouse development. I looked around quite a bit. Prices for those are sure high in some areas. (Greenwich, West district)

[ExtraSlow]

It's super hard to "time the market" with your primary residence. Life events like changing jobs, having babies, or a parent's illness are likely to force the timing of things. On top of that, the housing market is somewhat unpredictable, and us "regular" people have pretty much zero chance of being correct more than 50% of the time.

So I guess my advice is that you can take into consideration your predictions about the future of the housing market, but you should also consider what might happen if you are wrong, and protect yourself against that. If your plans work in both rising and falling housing markets, then it's a good plan.

I was super fortunate to be "moving up" during the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and I was able to sell my "starter home" for a good price and get a huge discount off the "move up" place I'm in now. But the timing of that was driven by an impending baby more than any prescience on my part.

[Xtrema]

There are too many factors and nobody is right. But if your life can support it, I would sell and have cash on hand and wait.

I have a feeling another 2008/09 event is upon us and there may be better stuff to put $ at than housing.

of course if you ask @Buster , that's his position all along.

I don't think AB is bottomed out yet. I expect that comes around 2020/21 when public sector laid off start to have effect and O&G recovery doesn't materialize. And if major stock market crash comes, BoC drop rates again and put a bunch of people back into the market.

AB RE market doesn't attract international $. It's all about jobs here.

[ExtraSlow]

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AB RE market doesn't attract international $. It's all about jobs here.

Agree with that sentiment.

[pheoxs]

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There are too many factors and nobody is right. But if your life can support it, I would sell and have cash on hand and wait.

I have a feeling another 2008/09 event is upon us and there may be better stuff to put $ at than housing.

of course if you ask @Buster , that's his position all along.

I don't think AB is bottomed out yet. I expect that comes around 2020/21 when public sector laid off start to have effect and O&G recovery doesn't materialize. And if major stock market crash comes, BoC drop rates again and put a bunch of people back into the market.

AB RE market doesn't attract international $. It's all about jobs here.

The public sector shriking + still private layoffs is going to hurt things. If people start moving out of the province to go back home we'll see a slow down in sales. And the US continues to track towards a recession. The manufacturing data that just got released looks bad.

[Rocket1k78]

If any bookie was taking bets on our housing market i would sell everything and bet our market will continue to drop for at least another year.

[bjstare]

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I have a feeling another 2008/09 event is upon us

Hope you're right, I wanna move up.

[Manhattan]

Hard to predict...if it was very few of us would be working. But to think another 08/09 is upon us is too much pessimism. That was a generational collapse and the real estate here wasn't affected much other than rates went lower. A very specific set of circumstances led to housing prices to crash in the US that are not present. Of course there could be risks that very few of us are aware of that leads to a crash but chances are slim as Canadian lending practices are pretty tame. When the next recession hits we'll likely see very mild effects on housing. Historically low rates will keep the cost of borrowing very cheap.