Imminent Housing Crash

[Disoblige]

Hindsight is 20/20. Lots of changes in 4 years and I wouldn't have bought a pre-built condo 3.5 years ago if I could do it again.

Anyone need a place to rent 2 bdrm, 2 bathroom, 2 parking in downtown, let me know

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Xtrema


On top of that, I have seen 1/2 to 1 month free up front or next to nothing damage deposits. I can't fathom people paying 2014 prices on a 25 yr amortization and try to rent out to be cash positive, or even be profitable.

Are like Evanston listings are popping up like rabbits as I assume either job situation or landlord can't keep it going without rent.

1 year ago a 1/1 in my building was $1800+

Last checked Kijiji it's $1375!

Originally posted by Disoblige
Hindsight is 20/20. Lots of changes in 4 years and I wouldn't have bought a pre-built condo 3.5 years ago if I could do it again.

Anyone need a place to rent 2 bdrm, 2 bathroom, 2 parking in downtown, let me know

Just bad timing. If it was done a year ago I think you would have made out nicely.

Wasn't building 1 much cheaper than building 2?

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by max_boost

Wasn't building 1 much cheaper than building 2?

Price was cheaper for sure, and the price I paid wasn't too bad. I'd be lucky to make ~30k after Realtor fees if I sold it at this time, which is one of the options I'm exploring. Not sure I want to be a landlord at this point in time.

[A790]

Originally posted by Xtrema


On top of that, I have seen 1/2 to 1 month free up front or next to nothing damage deposits. I can't fathom people paying 2014 prices on a 25 yr amortization and try to rent out to be cash positive, or even be profitable.

Are like Evanston listings are popping up like rabbits as I assume either job situation or landlord can't keep it going without rent.

Luckily I paid 2010 prices for my townhouse and am breaking even... barely.

This has caused us to add a significant pre-payment to the mortgage on both properties to ensure we can be profitable when renting assuming pessimistic rental rates.

Rents have definitely dropped, and so has tenant quality from what I'm hearing...

[roopi]

Originally posted by A790

This has caused us to add a significant pre-payment to the mortgage on both properties to ensure we can be profitable when renting assuming pessimistic rental rates.

By adding a prepayment do you really think you are making it profitable? Don't you think it would be better renting it at a loss instead for tax purposes?

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by roopi


By adding a prepayment do you really think you are making it profitable? Don't you think it would be better renting it at a loss instead for tax purposes?

Really depends on your numbers. I would do loss if you got gains to offset. But if you got no gains to offset, and you have cash burning in your pocket earning 1-2%, it's not a bad thing to pay down a bit to stay profitable.

[Feruk]

I can't believe people are calling for housing prices to RISE next year. The situation right now is far more bleak than it was 12 months ago. Calgary could make $60WTI work, but not $40. Next year is gonna be an absolute slaughter. It'll make 2015 look like a good year.

Originally posted by A790
This has caused us to add a significant pre-payment to the mortgage on both properties to ensure we can be profitable when renting assuming pessimistic rental rates.

You seem to think "profitable" and "cash flow positive" mean the same thing. Not the case. It sounds to me like what you're doing is putting a Band-Aid on what has turned out to be a shitty investment.

[max_boost]

Think long term bruh.

$200 oil.

YYC average house price $600K+

All good. Keep going Beyond slumlords!

[A790]

Originally posted by roopi


By adding a prepayment do you really think you are making it profitable? Don't you think it would be better renting it at a loss instead for tax purposes?

When the mortgage is refinanced we will be doing ourselves a few favours. Being cashflow positive is one of those things.

The pre-payment on the townhouse is only a couple hundred per month, as I believe that will build enough equity (in addition to the regular mortgage payments) ensure significant positive cashflow when we refinance in a few years.

Originally posted by Xtrema
Really depends on your numbers. I would do loss if you got gains to offset. But if you got no gains to offset, and you have cash burning in your pocket earning 1-2%, it's not a bad thing to pay down a bit to stay profitable.

We definitely don't have gains on our principle that we bought in June... lol.

Originally posted by Feruk
You seem to think "profitable" and "cash flow positive" mean the same thing. Not the case. It sounds to me like what you're doing is putting a Band-Aid on what has turned out to be a shitty investment.

Well, even at recessed prices, I'm still up almost $50k on my townhouse... so that worked out for me.

And my principle, which is where the bulk of my pre-payments are going, is being paid down to ensure that when we refinance we're cashflow positive

We are holding these for the long-term and aren't too worried about short-term fluctuations. However, in order for me to be cashflow positive on the principle, I need to build some decent equity in the thing... and fast. We're moving in 3 years

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by A790
We definitely don't have gains on our principle that we bought in June... lol.

It not gain/loss until you sell.

The whole landlord game is all about equity and heloc so you can have a bunch of money to invest elsewhere. It's long term.

It's starting to look good as I have predicted last year but a few months late. A lot of places I have eyes on has become reasonable and gone back to 2014/2013 level prices and not the City of Calgary assessed BS.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Feruk
I can't believe people are calling for housing prices to RISE next year. The situation right now is far more bleak than it was 12 months ago. Calgary could make $60WTI work, but not $40. Next year is gonna be an absolute slaughter. It'll make 2015 look like a good year.

This is exactly what I'm thinking. To think that prices are going to go up next year is downright delusional IMO.

[A790]

Originally posted by cjblair


This is exactly what I'm thinking. To think that prices are going to go up next year is downright delusional IMO.

Hard to tell. People everywhere said the RE market here was going to crater this year. I've lost 3% on my townhouse so far.

I doubt we'll see an increase in valuations next year, but I also doubt that it will be the slaughter that some are suggesting.

[88CRX]

Originally posted by Feruk
I can't believe people are calling for housing prices to RISE next year. The situation right now is far more bleak than it was 12 months ago. Calgary could make $60WTI work, but not $40. Next year is gonna be an absolute slaughter. It'll make 2015 look like a good year.

Housing prices is dictated directly by supply and demand. To a lesser extend demand is affected by oil prices.

There is still going to be some demand (net migration is in the positive still) and people need to live somewhere. Many people might be in a position to downsize, in fact you can already see the stats to support that.

Secondly is supply. The market is not hugely oversupplied and builders aren't pumping out homes in anticipation of the demand being less than previous years.

I mean sure, you can sit there and think lots of people are going to continue losing their jobs (which is probably true) but are people going to all of a sudden become homeless? Not a chance. Not everyone has stretched themselves so thin that being laid off for 6/12/18 months is going cause them to walk away from their mortgages.

How many people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for any price correction (maybe a couple %) to get into the market? As soon as that starts to happen to any significant degree prices will start to pickup again.

At the end of the day its all speculative but the numbers don't support a massive nose dive in housing prices.

[Tilly]

One thing is for sure - it's becoming a good time to invest in more real estate..

[adamc]

If you believe Calgary isn't going to zero, that is.

[rob the knob]

Originally posted by 88CRX


Housing prices is dictated directly by supply and demand. To a lesser extend demand is affected by oil prices.

and interest rates

wait till rates go up up up next year and next next year

[roopi]

Originally posted by rob the knob



wait till rates go up up up next year and next next year

I've been waiting years for this and it never happened like some people said. Eventually they will be right.

[7thgenvic]

I don't get why people are so optimistic. You can't be... Our economy is sh*t... Most industries in Alberta are suffering... Yet people are still trying to unload tear downs for 500+

It's only a matter of time..

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Black Gts]

Sooo we're all fucked as the pessimist is being optimistic.. Thanks for the warning lol.