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Thread: Imminent Housing Crash

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    Default Imminent Housing Crash

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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    End of the year, 10-15%. Followed by recovery in late 2016/early 2017
    See Crank. See Crank Walk. Walk Crank Walk.

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    Default

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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    Thanks Obama.


    To the question though. 15%. Though I hope it drops 50%.

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    Since $30 oil didn't pen out. NDP to the rescue!

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    I can't wait to buy a house for $1

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    I can't wait to be a slumlord
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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    Originally posted by Sugarphreak


    I don't think it will go that low, haha
    I think he meant assuming mortgage for $1 like back in the 80s and NEP days.

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    Originally posted by Tik-Tok
    To the question though. 15%. Though I hope it drops 50%.
    Alberta will be a scary place to live/work if prices manage to drop 50%.
    Originally posted by SEANBANERJEE
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    Obviously it won't be great if this does happen, especially 50%... but a part of me hopes it does so I can swoop in like a vulture.

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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    Originally posted by Jlude
    Obviously it won't be great if this does happen, especially 50%... but a part of me hopes it does so I can swoop in like a vulture.
    Yea, but you have to look at the big picture to see what would be happening to cause pricing to drop that much. Obviously, it won't be a huge jump in new inventory bumping up supply, but from demand dropping significantly. An oil crash as well as a subsequent 50k job loss in the province didn't move demand enough to tank housing prices. It would take an economic crash, where we have a significant negative net migration, to spark such a huge drop.

    Less jobs, less people, less money, less taxes collected means someone's going to pay for the more promised spending. It's a snowball effect of tax insanity where you won't be able to afford that house at 50% off lol.

    Originally posted by Sugarphreak
    Anybody considering a move as a result of the NDP?

    Moving up / second property if prices drop?
    downsizing to mitigate equity loss?
    Moving out of Calgary/Alberta?

    (This should really be a poll)
    I don't think we're really worried about people moving directly because NDP is in power. I'm giving them a chance (really no choice right?) but if they fail, then people will have to move not by choice but by necessity.

    As for plans, looking at dumping rentals if things do look bad. I'm pretty lucky that my work isn't based on O&G, Alberta, or Canada at all, so even with a 5 figure increase in income tax alone, I'm in pretty good shape.
    Originally posted by SEANBANERJEE
    I have gone above and beyond what I should rightfully have to do to protect my good name

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    If things drop 50% and don't recover, what's the point.

    Our province's success is completely dependent on oil prices no matter who is in power. If the market was $100/bbl, no one would be nervous about what's going to happen.

    Would the PCs in power have stopped any sort of pricing decline? No, but $45 oil would and did initiate it.
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    Originally posted by rage2

    Yea, but you have to look at the big picture to see what would be happening to cause pricing to drop that much. Obviously, it won't be a huge jump in new inventory bumping up supply, but from demand dropping significantly. An oil crash as well as a subsequent 50k job loss in the province didn't move demand enough to tank housing prices. It would take an economic crash, where we have a significant negative net migration, to spark such a huge drop.

    Less jobs, less people, less money, less taxes collected means someone's going to pay for the more promised spending. It's a snowball effect of tax insanity where you won't be able to afford that house at 50% off lol.
    .
    Of course, if prices drop by 50%, the problems will run long and deep. It's extreme speculation to say that prices would drop 50%, I would bet against that happening.

    Fortunately, I've been diversifying our client base for the past couple of years, so we haven't really felt the slower times in Alberta. Some of our clients haven't been as busy as they were even 1-2 years ago.

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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    I care less and less about the % drop from last year. Since real estate was on a tear January until August 2014, obviously every month will look like a "worse drop" as long as prices stay flat in 2015. But month over month, prices aren't changing much at all. In December they will call a "rebound" because prices were so low last December that the year over year % is negligible. Just stupid.
    Last edited by Feruk; 05-07-2015 at 11:50 AM.

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    Originally posted by Sugarphreak


    I don't think it matters anymore though. The NDP has made it pretty clear time and time again they want a big chunk of oil.

    They will probably implement a progressive royalty structure that limits profits of O&G companies as a result. Even if oil is 70$, or 100$, or even 150$... oil companies will be making about the same profit; just over break even.

    Lol, that's what you truly in your heart believe? Dude, you've gone full retard. They want to stay in power, they aren't going to completely cripple O&G.

    And the USA fucked BC's lumber industry, not the NDP (though they didn't help it either)

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    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-13-2019 at 09:43 PM.

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    Originally posted by Tik-Tok



    Lol, that's what you truly in your heart believe? Dude, you've gone full retard. They want to stay in power, they aren't going to completely cripple O&G.

    And the USA fucked BC's lumber industry, not the NDP (though they didn't help it either)
    Did Zen Ops hack his account?

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