Tesla P85D Experiences

[KRyn]

Originally posted by Tearin


we intend to keep the car for 10+ years.

Will the batteries even last that long?

[snowcat]

Originally posted by KRyn


Will the batteries even last that long?

Battery swap takes 90 seconds.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by snowcat


Battery swap takes 90 seconds.

That idea is abandoned. Right now, the material cost of 7000 cell is about $21K. Then you have to build them into packs and install them. Most estimates are $40-$50K.

So when those cells fails in the 9th year, even with the promise that cells with reduce 30% in cost by 2017 and assume another 30% by 2020, you start still looking at $20K to replace a 85kwh pack.

[Tearin]

BATTERY - It seems that Tesla figures the batteries are good for a fair bit more than 8 years (hence the length of warranty), and based on the first 3 years of the Model S battery performance it seems that 8 years out there might be 10% average, 20% worst case range loss in the packs. If you charge and discharge fully each time, of course there will be more potential range loss, but there's no real world numbers that I've seen about this yet, just potential extrapolations.

But there may be reasons to swap out a battery besides just 10% range loss. Tesla is pushing for a 7% increase in range each year from their batteries (seems aggressive - since the 85kW pack came out, a few years ago, it took till just now to announce the 90kW pack, claiming 6% extra range). But this is what they say.

Here in Canada, the issue is the winter driving, with snow, wind, etc, and how it can affect the range, particularly when trying to make it long disances between Superchargers. As an example, for us, even with a new battery pack, trying to make it all the way to Fernie in the winter will push the limits of the battery already, even at 55mph average speed, so if the batteries do improve in range, it might be worth doing.

Say a 100 kW pack is available in 5 years, I might consider buying it as I will be able to reach Fernie with a pack that size, even at -10C and a 40kph headwind. Tesla would take back our 85kW pack for rebuild, and will offer "some" amount for the core. And, getting another 85 pack might not even be an option 8 years out, the same 7000+ cells might put out 100kW.

Having said all that, the prices quoted in the post above are a bit high. At end of year 8, Tesla's VP has stated they will swap out an 85kW pack to a new one for 12K USD (the question is whether, in 2020 when the first ones come out of warranty, will this price be achievable). They say their new Gigafactory will drop the battery/cell prices 30%, so I am sure that is part of it.

So who knows how I'll feel 5 years out (and lets hope at only 5 years of use and maybe 10% range loss, we are offered a good amount in exchange for our cores). The test of how much we will get will be realized in the next year by the guys who are thinking of going from P85D to P90D; how much did it actually cost them for the battery swap. Once a few have done it, the Tesla forums will give us a better idea on pro-rated core exchange costs...there just isn't much info out there now except a couple of guys who upgraded their 60's to 85's... ...Tesla's "retail" costs were $45K for the 85kW and $37K for the 60kW pack, but the 60kW core trade in value was pro-rated down 20% from $37K to only $30K. So, they actually paid only 15K to go from a 60 to 85...repeating the math, lets say an 85 to 90 swap should be 0.8 * $45K = $36K refund on the core, and lets say the new 90kW pack is $47.5K, so then its only $11.6K for that swap, if the core is under two years old (we only have hard data for the prorated core costs up to 2 years out - maybe more details are out there, I didnt look too hard, but the key is the core still gets a fairly good exchange price, even possibly at 10% loss of range 8 years out...so, it's not a full retail price to get a new battery)....the math shows why a new pack could actually be $12K. But, who knows what the actual core exchange ratios will be 8 years out.

So, it'll still be a dent in our wallets, but better battery packs will also be available, and should (I hope?) be under $20K CDN to upgrade to say a 100 kW. Others may not see the economics to spend that much to go from 85 (that's really ony say 76.5kW 8 years out) back to maybe a 100kW if that's the pack we get offered in 8 years, but for us personally, we just won't be able to take the Tesla skiing once the battery range is down 10% in say 5 years, OR if its really cold, deep snow, headwind, combinations of same, etc. The issue is the time to recharge, say an hour to get 10% more in the battery, adding enough to get there (we have a charger at our destination, there so we can arrive there batteries depleted), but then again its another hour pit stop delay driving when driving back too - right now there are only a couple of 50Amp chargers for people to use between Calgary and Hwy 3. And they charge slowly.

...but, the talk about batteries losing only about 10-20% range and thinking that might mean we'd have to drop tens of thousands on new packs to address this, could be offset by the fact that 8 years from now there will be a LOT more Superchargers. If they put a Supercharger in Crowsnest Pass when they start to "open up" Highway 3 (informally, Tesla has said Hwy 3 is high on the list, <5yrs out), then I WILL be able to accept having a 90% pack 5 years out (vs spending up to $20K). It'll mean a 5-10 minute "fill" to get me the distance I need to go skiing, which I do already in my ICE vehicles on the trip. But, if they decide it's best to put the Supercharger in Fernie its little help to Calgarians (and they might as that's the right distance from Lethbridge, which gets theirs in 2016), as if it snows, OR it's below -10C, OR I want to average >110kph including headwind, there's no way I can make it with a pack thats 20% down (say 10 years from now), even from our house which is South of the city. In that case, for us, I'll be jumping on getting the new, better battery pack. I'm S of the city and I'll barely be able to reach Fernie; others who live in Calgary will for sure want the Supercharger to be closer, likely in Crowsnest Pass (something I've spoke to Tesla about - they actually solicit new locations from the owners). They have a sophisticated method for spacing their Superchargers, but in winters here, the distance needs to be considerably shorter; sure we'll reach the next Supercharger using their typical spacing distance, but on cold days, we'll have discharged too low, and then filled too high, shortening battery life.

Also, the 60 to 85, and the 85 to 90 battery improvements came with a bit of additional speed even with the same motors, a bonus. They say that larger batteries can make the car even faster, so there's that too, if this claim is valid and acheivable in the future.

[But, note that it wasn't the larger 90kW battery per se that allowed the latest 0.4 sec 0-60 mph Ludicrous speed improvement (it actually was supposed to be a free "software" update to the P85D, yet now we get the required "hardware" at 1/2 price, , thanks Tesla....and no one really knows the actual cost yet, but speculation it's 6,500 USD @ half price (incl. install)...that "little" pocketbook hit burns owners a lot more than an EVs inevitable need for new batteries, as most were led to believe the 2.8s on an 85kW battery pack was achievable with only a free software update, then we find out it needs new hardware, etc...that's a bit of a "overpromise, underdeliver" situation imo. So I always knew and expected to have to take the battery hit and had factored it into the 10 year ownership costs...but I hadn't factored in the Ludicrous costs too to access the full 690Hp past 30mph...(even tho I would definitely pay to get that much power increase in other cars I own, so why not in the Tesla - it is a pretty good bang for the buck, and just like rwhp and engine hp arent the same, Tesla's motor Hp and delivered Hp arent the same - hence why Tesla advertisting has changed in the last 6 moths for the P85D).

The reason I bring up the extra performance/range and being OK spending to get it, is because I have modded just about every car I've had in the past 20 years, so to me, its just natural to spend money when changing out the inevitable broken/worn out/consumed parts, and I almost always put in better parts in replacement. Let's say the battery pack comes in at 10% of the cost of the Tesla, to me thats no different than spending 10% of my others cars costs on a new turbo, wastegate, controller, clutch, etc. for Hp gains. So it's just the price of admission to keep up the 690Hp car, in my mind.

So, comparing the relative costs of doing maintenance and wear type repairs to drive a $150K ICE vs EV car for 10 years: I figure they cost same in tires, less in brakes for the Tesla (regen braking, I used so little of my brakes nowadays), less in engine/tranny/clutch repairs but much more in battery repairs (the $12K USD), and same in any electrical 12V system repairs (windows, stereo, cruise, signals, etc.) Using the same as always example cars, if I'd gotten the RS7, or the E63 (albeit both a bit less up front money), in the next 10 years, would I spend 12K in repairs to a "well loved" engine (gaskets, rings, worse), tranny, etc....hmm, maybe, maybe not. It'd be close.

BUT, and its a big but, IF I had bought a different 2.8 sec car and tried to drive it 200,000km over 10 years, there is NOOOO way I will get out of that with only 12K USD extra having been spent, first to either get the car to 700Hp, and second to keep it running reliably there for 10 years. So, for 2.8 sec, it's likely a foreign exotic, (unless it's a modded GT-R, Hellcat, Z06, Viper), so good luck getting any foreign exotic car fixed for anywhere near the shop rate of a Tesla, and let's not forget the wait time for those exotic's parts to come from Europe, etc.

To drive the point home: if we were switching away from high performance EV cars, and high performance ICE cars were the new thing, we'd all be complaining about engine, tranny, addtional brake work, etc, yet the costs of maintenance to both types of cars is probably about the same. So Tesla owners spend less on some types of maintenance, yet more on others, and thats OK to me, to get to drive a 2.8s car. It's likely a wash in the end, but time will tell once the Model S ages.

All costs in, 10 year annualized costs, it has to be one of the best 2.8 sec cars, bang for the buck cars ever made. With AWD and autopilot that foreign exotics won't have, and reliability too.

tl/dr: Our cellphone, laptop, etc use has taught us that taking a rechargeable battery from 0-100%-0 charge is bad for it. Ditto a Tesla, so essentially it's usable range isn't what you expect from the Tesla unless you overcharge and also draw too low, which will reduce the long term battery performance more that the 10-20% reduction that is expected at 8 years. So, basically EV rechargeable batteries are consumables, but not till well past 8 years out and this is backed up by the Telsa warranty. Per the VP Tesla, its only 12K USD (all in) if you swap exactly at years 9 to a new pack of same capacity.

ICE cars have about the same maintenance costs but its composed of different types of repairs than an EV; over 10 years, let's say a Tesla's maintenance costs the same or maybe a bit more, factoring in a 12K USD battery purchase (after core exchange), vs owning the two cars I typically compared to, the RS7 or E63. The battery is just a different type of "wear out" item.

BUT, it's a 2.8 sec car, and so, the maintenance cost to drive another similarly performing car (foreign exotic) for 10 years (say 200k), there's NO WAY I am spending less than 12K USD to upgrade it (if needed), plus the much much higher costs to also maintain it for 10 years (save maybe for a Hellcat, GT-R, Z06, Viper, other - the small handful of cars that arguable can best the Tesla for overall average annual costs, - but if you are Canadian and maybe also want an AWD, the list of sub 3s cars get preened even further).

So, summarizing the battery cost issue, wrt the big picture - look at the 10 year costs all in: it's near impossible (save for a few mentioned above that come close) to find another sub 3 sec car that costs as little on an annual basis, including paying for a battery pack in a bunch of years.

[killramos]

I love all this talk about how we cant predict how batteries will react after 10 years of daily use in extreme conditions ( Calgary). Tesla hasn't invented the wheel here, LiIon batteries have been around forever and Tesla's are not really different than anyone elses.

The battery in my Macbook is pooched and i think i can count on 1 hand the number of full discharge cycles it has been through ( desk princess ). Took maybe 2-3 years for it to not hold 50% of it's original charge? After 8 it is more like 10% of original.

You seem to be really grasping at straws to justify your lower battery costs. After 8+ years of use you really think your battery core will be worth 80% of the cost new? I would say that might be true after more like 8 minutes of use.

After 8 years the battery likely junked (chemically) and needs full refurbishment and recycling which likely costs more than making a new battery. So unless Tesla is down for doing this at a major loss ( back to their business practices) that's not happening.

Not even going to touch the continual touting of the only impressive statistic that the car has, its 0-60 time. If that's all a supercar is to you then .

Glad you like your new car, you came on here initially with some really great posts and experiences. But you are starting to sound more and more like Supe every day .

[Tearin]

A few good points (and I couple I'd like to clarify about the batteries). Yep, need to be a bit more objective in assesing Tesla performance, whether it's the battery, it's handling, other. Re-reading last nights post, I can see that the struggles I had pre-purchase, trying to justify spending 150K on a car, are coming thru a bit too loudly as justifying my purchase to the forum as a "sub 3 sec car". That, the AWD, and the autpilot (for the wife moreso) IS how I justified coughing up the cash in the end, but I have to be careful of course in how it's said (typical of most written communication, even moreso in forums). So those were my real struggles, and I did go thru the rationalization that even if the battery was $20K to buy again, it was worth it, to have the speed performance of the Tesla. I can't change that fact. But, I am not a Tesla fanboy, I am a peformance car fanboy: I've got the modded 944T track car, a turboed Miata for autox, etc (again, not bragging, I've had those cars for many years, bought them used, and I chose those more affordable cars because of the bang for the buck performance they delivered, back in the day...same for the Tesla today, just that the dollar amounts to play with are a bit higher, later in ones career ). And I do not think the Tesla is a Supercar, but it has some aspects of a Supercar, just like it has some aspects of an RS7/E63, etc. Given unlimited means, the garage would be full of other, closer to true Supercar cars, but there might still be an Model X even if theres no Model S in the stable. Having a 3.2sec SUV with gullwing doors could be argued that its kindof the Super"SUV" now. So I'm not a Tesla fanboy: if some other billionaire comes along and decides to try to change the world and gives us a different 700Hp car for even less money, I'm in. And I'll offer up that the GT-R was a car I had always wanted but never pulled the trigger on in the past, and also that I did almost buy an RS7 instead of the Tesla (wife said next car must be a Sedan, so it was a list of fewer than 10 cars with the Hp, AWD, and autopilot type features what were on the "want" list).

Do I think the Tesla is a Supercar...not in a foreign exotic kindof way. It gets attention, but not like a Lambo, Ferrari, Aston, even Maserati, etc would, here in Canada. To me, it only has the straight line speed up to say 100mph of a Supercar. Heck, is a 911T even seen as exotic here in Calgary. Yet I'll take its brakes, handling, looks, etc every day of the week over a Tesla.

In street driving, the most accessible part of a Supercar, is getting first across the intersection, and also having great passing power. Each and every day on the commute I can push the limits of 0-60 and passing power, but not the limits of cornering and braking that say a 911T would have - that would border on dangerous and irresponsible...so I get to experience one of the most accessible aspects of Supercar ownership, even on my daily commute, in the Tesla. I almost never get to push the 944T (a garage queen now that Race City is gone), and the Miata goes out on sunny days for Mountain trips with the roof down, but even it never gets pushed except acceleration wise, as it's been a few years since I autox'ed. So, even if I had a true Supercar, I would rarely if ever get to experience the cornering and braking of it on the road, so those aspects of Supercar ownership, abeit real, go unreailzed for most Supercar owners, unless you take the car to the track. And when/if we get a track back, it won't be the Tesla that spends very much time there. But for street Supercar like realized performance, the Tesla is pretty cool (post Ludicrous of course, I won't start in on that SNAFU again). Any +300rwhp car can shame the Insane mode past 30mph (and there are many many cars that meet that criteria available for a LOT less money, new and used), but that will soon get "fixed".

Next, do I miss the exhaust note/growl that an Italian or other Supercar produces, absolutely, (see "Noise" posts above - so this aspect is also missing with the "stealth car"). And of course, no, it doesn't have the looks/cache/rarity of a Supercar, which if I was driving a foriegn exotic, I would also get every day (tho the Tesla does get quite a few thumbs up each day, its not a Lambo). Having said that, it's got some pretty damn nice 21" rims, up there with Supercars imo.

For 25 years I've liked "sleeper" cars...the 944T and the Turboed Miata are great examples. Cars that can perform much higher than their looks suggest, and the Tesla fits the bill for me there too (well maybe not to the average beyond'er, who knows what a P85D is, just the average Canadian). It's all relative, and so, I should step back and say I definately don't think its a Supercar, which I'll also offer, I'll never own, due it it not being practical enough to justify the expense. Changing gears a bit back to the battery, I think its just that, in the past, I have had no problem rationalizing spending well over 10% (the Tesla battery cost) on past cars costs modding and maintaining them, so having to put in a battery pack wasn't something I struggled with...but, spending the up front dollars was, and I guess I've rationalized that a bit to hard in my posts.

I also have changed the Li-Ion battery in cell phones, ski boots (cause I didn't store them properly at 50%), other stuff, and soon my 2008 MacAir might need them (luckily I'm between 60% and 70% now, keep it plugged in almost always, so it has less cycles than most - you must get heavy usage out of your MacBook), hence why I alluded to the fact that we all are familiar with battery degradation and need to view them as consumbles. Ten years of battery cycling is unrealistic for those types of batteries, and we all have experienced that.

But the clarifier I want to make: this begs the question, WHY is Tesla offering an 8 year warranty - some say it's to placate any concerns over battery life, but I don't think that's why they did it - maybe it was because hot swapping batteries (when they were working that), kindof meant you had an unlimited warranty by default, if you could always get a "new" battery pack from them every few days...I think they did it cause its safe for them to do so financially. As a Mec E who has taken a course in planned obsolence (no flames pls - I did it cause I wanted to work in the auto industry and felt it would help), to me, it isn't rational to offer the warranty at 8 years unless almost every battery can reach that point. And there are a few high mileage high cycle Model S Tesla owners who know a lot more about batteries than I do, and they are tracking their battery range degradation, and it looks like we will be down only 10-20% at 8 years unless we realy abuse the pack. More on that later.

I also can't speak for the business model that Tesla has, and if it is appropriate, but note that they said they will swap out to new batteries for 12K USD, which means on a $45K battery pack, we are somehow getting 73% on core exchange. Again, note all the caveats I had put in as to whether they will deliver on that promise, whether its realistic, etc, and note that based on the data points thus far, 80% trade in IS happening even on higher mileage packs (but none are 8 years old yet). They are building the world's largest factory, so economies of scale should drop battery prices, and I do think 30% is doable...Xtrema suggested 30% by 2017, and 30% by 2020, and maybe Tesla is claiming this very nice cost reduction (didn't look it up myself), but time will tell.

Wrt core exchange value being higher than you'd expect...yes, it seems at 8 years out it would be impossible to give 73% trade in on the old battery. Now, don't quote me on the exact numbers, but I think I recall reading that it's because at least half the cells in the Tesla live a "cushy life" and might not have any degradation even at 8 years, and that only a portion will actually have to be changed out. To the layman (me), then it's the charging and discharge routines that they use, and it seems like the top 20% of charge and the bottom 20% of discharge are borne by the same sacrificial cells, and that most of the cells are treated "poshly" and stay very healthy. Again, don't quote the numbers, just that directionally this is the concept that allows them to do this. All the batteries I guess are not used up "in parallel", and there might be a paralell series thing going on in in there. I am sure this has been answered by Telsa already, and I think it's why they can give more than expected on core exchange. Are they losing money doing it, dunno, again, there are battery guys who know a lot more what a xyz sized kWh pack should cost today, and 5 years from now in 2020.

Wrt not knowing how exterme weather affects the batteries, directionally, of course we know it does, Tesla knows it does, and there are lots of calculators out there, but they are only directional at best. The tools don't allow me to calculate 2" of snow vs 4" of light powder, vs gravel, rain, etc, and get a tire "rolling resistance" guesstimate to input into the model...further, they are hard pressed to imagine the winds we see on Hyw 22 driving to Fernie and I have to put in a guesstimate of what I think the average wind will be when I enter my driving speed, and recognize it never hits the car head on, esp on 22...so, yes, they do have some pretty accurate data backed up by real world results on Model S battery performance at temps down to -20C, etc but that's just one variable. So sure, in isolation you can take a typical Li-Ion cell and say, yes at -20C it delivers x% of its +20C Amp-hours, BUT, lets say you wrap a heater around those batteries and use the batteries themselves to heat the other batteries so that all the batteries can deliver more power, then whisk them all along 5" off the ground at 30mph, no 50mph, wait this trip its 70mph, etc (yes the floorpan is sealed, but there still is some convective cooling of the area). There a lot of variables, and it has taken end users time to figure out the Amp-hours each cell can deliver - and I am appreciative of the work they have done. I am sure enginers at Tesla can answer these questions better, but Tesla owners are trying to figure this out based on real world experiences. It looks like a 40% range loss is typical at really cold temps, but none of the "volunteers" who post these calculators with range claims can be 100% sure of their numbers, as there are too many variables. So it comes with caveats to the end users that "ymmv". And for the trips I want to take in the winter, ymmv isn't somthing the engineer in me likes to hear. So directionally, cold is bad for batteries, but trying to figure out if you can go 300km, or only 280km is really hard to do if you don't know whether it's going to snow 1" or 4" on your Friday night drive, and also trying to predict what Sundays drive back might be like, and what the actual frontal average wind might be on Friday and again on Sunday, so you can add that to your driving speed in the calculator too, all while trying to hit the sensitivity required to answer if you have 300km or 280 km of range (like 93% accuracy required - yet missing the mark means a tow, or having to charge for an hour at a 50Amp charger). So, a lot of it is a guesstimate, which Canadian EV owners know all too well... ...so there is a lot of talk about range, esp in Northern climates. Once there is more infrastructure to support EVs, this will become a lot more moot, but it will never go away.

Now, geez, you've made me need to go and figure out if Supe is a Tesla fanboy, justifies his puchases too hard, is too longwinded (which I can be), etc. I think maybe I know the name from my lurking for years on Beyond, but given that I've only really been back on Beyond for a couple of weeks, I don't know whose who in the zoo, [been many many years since I stumbled across the forum, back when I was trying to mod my 944T and was basing it partially off of Rage's experences of long ago].

[killramos]

Originally posted by Tearin


Now, geez, you've made me need to go and figure out if Supe is a Tesla fanboy, justifies his puchases too hard, is too longwinded (which I can be), etc.

I'll save you the trouble, he's a fanboy .

[rage2]

Originally posted by Tearin
But the clarifier I want to make: this begs the question, WHY is Tesla offering an 8 year warranty

This one is simple. It's because it's industry standard. Toyota is an 8 year as well.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Tearin
Having said all that, the prices quoted in the post above are a bit high. At end of year 8, Tesla's VP has stated they will swap out an 85kW pack to a new one for 12K USD (the question is whether, in 2020 when the first ones come out of warranty, will this price be achievable). They say their new Gigafactory will drop the battery/cell prices 30%, so I am sure that is part of it.

That's $12K USD price has been thrown around a lot. It originates from the $12K next battery deal with the original Roadster which has since been pulled.

There is no where concrete saying that today I can buy 85kwh battery from Tesla for $12K. If I can, I would buy tons.

If Tesla home battery price is any clue, 10kwh goes for $3500. 85kwh should be 8.5x of that, so $28000 each in 2016. It may be a while before it hits $12K unless somebody is able to commercialize all the new battery techs from the labs.

It's not impossible, after all we went from 1.6TB SSD, to 16TB, to potential 128TB in just 7 short years.

TLDR, I don't think the $12K is written in stone. But failed battery doesn't seem to stop people buying Prius either.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by killramos


I'll save you the trouble, he's a fanboy .

I see now. Just finished reading the Tesla Investing Megathread.

Yes, a lot of what I've said was previously said there, possibly because some facts are facts (they claimed the 12K USD battery price, they are seeing batteries in Roadsters last to 8 years, etc), it is a great 0-60 vehicle, etc. Some good info, some not so good, probably like this thread too.

But in this thread about the P85D performance, I also offered up that that the 0-60 is just about all the Tesla does great on the street, but I also countered, that this is about all we really do get to use from any Supercars performance, on the street (and I offer this up with the background indicating that I do have "some" slow and high speed autox and track experience).

It seems like other cars got mentioned (I saw M5 specifically) into the discussion in the other thread about investing, and maybe those types of driving discussion belong in a "driving perspective" thread, and this one should steer clear of stuff that isn't about tesla driving performance.

So, on regular day to day driving of the Tesla, at way less than its max capability, so far, to me the Tesla handles and brakes like a 5000# low CoG AWD car should (much better than the SUV). I've driven better handling 4000# sedans than the Tesla, but again, I rarely get to push it on the street to use that performance.

The steering feel and feedback, suspension, etc is nice in day to day driving. I find some German cars to be a bit off in those respects, ditto Japanese, yet I find other offerings from the same manufacturer to mesh nicely with what "I" look for wrt sensory feedback from the car. I haven't driven too many foreign exotics, so I won't comment on those.

Wrt the other thread, I'm going to steer clear (pun intended). I don't know enough, nor do I care to, about where battery tech is going, about the gigaplant, Tesla, etc - I glean info as it crosses my path or when it might affects the performance of the car I own. Again, I might just as easily have wound up with the RS7 as the P85D, but right when I was looking for a new car in early October, the P85D was announced, and it scored the highest on the must/want matrix that the wife and I had (again, lucky her, married to a risk engineer - a decision matrix, lol).

But, I do have an MBA with 6 Finance courses/options and a full term project which I chose to do in Behavioural Investing (back in the 90's! long before it ws a popular concept), and for sure, many people ARE riding the 'irrational exhuberiance" wave of Tesla and some are even doing it knowingly (as stated in the other thread, think Enron, also, Nortel, Bre-X, Ballard, you name it, high P/E's - tho I'm not saying that Tesla is corrupt tho like two of those companies were). I don't nor would I invest in them as I tend to be more of a fundamentalist, and/or value investor, with my "stock" investments. But I will offer up that because of that, I also chose to miss the huge Bre-X and Nortel rollercoasters ride up too.

Investing in an ultra high P/E growth stock like those companies were, is a market timing game imo (and have fun with that), probably done with a volatile stock too by the "players", and it looks more like "gambling" than investing, to me. Sure for diversification, I'll put my money into maybe some less volatile growth stocks in addition to value stocks, etc., but not Tesla.

And yes, someone will point out in a post that their volatile "growth" stock went up 20% in response to someone else who said it had just dropped 10%, and both might actually think this has to do with the fundamantals of Tesla itself, which it "probably" doesn't...

...to me, I'd focus on what Tesla is or is not doing better than its competitors leading to the market's money flowing towards them. Relative to others, are they better innovators, filling a demand, pushing economies of scale, spearheading infrastructure change, marketing well, riding a wave, who knows....a bit of all of it I'm sure, but what's really dominating their growth...I can't help but think that as soon as the main stream media starts to get involved, and companies start to engage them (or vice versa), this necessary evil occurs/exists (companies need exposure to attract money, and so they need to play the game, and some companies do it better than others).

I'm not saying this is another overhyped Ballard (a company with some value, but not worth what they had). Is Tesla worth investing in, will Tesla go bankrupt, I'll never comment strongly on that as I believe that my answers should come from a thorough understanding of the situation before offering an opinion, and even then, I think the answer will be highly unreliable, as are most people's guesses. There's the engineers answer. If you hold my feet to the fire and make me take a stance, based on the info I know today, I think I'm OK owning a Tesla till at least the end of its 8 year warranty period (might buy the extended IF things are looking bad wrt its reliability at end of year 4), but I won't give them any money other that the small profit they might have make off of me in exchange for me getting to drive the P85D they desgned and manufactured. There are other places for me to put my money, and yes, I might wind up with less money in the end because of it. Or maybe I'll start a business and invest in myself and see if I can control the growth of my money even better than giving it to Elon and other stockholders...

So, for those reasons, I think I'll stay out of the other thread, and focus on this one, where I can be a car guy pushing the limits of the "latest shiny bobble" that has a lot of the car worlds (and even outside the car world) focus on it right now, the P85D.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by rage2

This one is simple. It's because it's industry standard. Toyota is an 8 year as well.

If this is the main reason, they better make sure we stop charging to 100% and dropping to 1% before charging, or they will see more warranty claims than they hoped for.

I, thinking like an engineer, had guessed it was cause they know they can statistically reach 8 years.

But, maybe it's cause they copied the other companies warranty, but and I might be naive, but SOMEONE had to think 8 years was doable, I can't believe originaly Toyota did it to attact buyers...thats a huge risk...so the argument I'm making is that they can hit 8 years reliably, regardless of how they chose the 8 year timeframe. To continue my argument, if Toyota thought they can do 8 years, and offered it, and Tesla looked and said our battery tech is as good, and our Roadster data says we hit it too, then 8 years is the timeframe.

The reason I pointed out the 8 year warranty was to argue that these thing will almost certainly last that long, and to counter-argue that just because my or someone else's Mac's battery may be shot at 8 or 10 years, doesn't mean the a Toyota's or a Tesla's will be...I still think the fact they have an 8 year warranty is strong evidence that we will still have good range at 8 years and 200k. And Tesla's expereience and almost all early adopter Model S drivers exeriences are starting to prove this out... if wrong, it was a costly decision on Tesla's part. These batteries will hit 8 years for almost all Tesla users.

[rage2]

Originally posted by Xtrema
But failed battery doesn't seem to stop people buying Prius either.

Not sure if this service is available in Canada yet, but $800 for a Prius reconditioned battery installed.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tonybrad...ds-of-dollars/

Was researching this for the MIL's car. If Tesla can hit critical mass like the Prius, I have no doubt that battery replacement prices won't be an issue in the future.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by Xtrema


That's $12K USD price has been thrown around a lot. It originates from the $12K next battery deal with the original Roadster which has since been pulled.

There is no where concrete saying that today I can buy 85kwh battery from Tesla for $12K. If I can, I would buy tons.

<edit>

TLDR, I don't think the $12K is written in stone. <edit>

I agree, I wish it was in stone, but the VP at Tesla did reaffirm that Roadster 12K number for Model S owners, a year or so after the Model S came out, and it is all over the internet now, and I'm pretty sure I recall it's in writing in an unofficial form from him, but MAYBE it could be argued he didn't act as a rep of the company when he said it. <found it: George Blankenship, Tesla Vice President of Worldwide Sales and Ownership Experience, wrote on the company blog with the numbers and details, 8K, 10K and 12K for a 40kW, 60, and 85...but it was in Nov 2012, and many in the media discredited the claim that they could do the 12K price for an 85kW. It was also good ANYTIME for that price, after the original 8 year warranty...but note that my actual paperwork from Tesla of course doesn't refer to any of these costs>

Having said that, I think they may take a loss to do the 12K, which is why its not like you or I could arbitrage this and get our hands on 7000+ cells and sell them at their actual market rate...the 12K may not be based on ecomonics, and may just be the offer to current Tesla owners only. Newly produced cells like those in the Powerwall are priced well it appears (I'm sure you know more than I do on that front), and who knows what their swap price will be years out...Even assuming a 50% trade in, and allowing for the first 30% reduction in Giga factory battery price by 2020 (when the first Tesla S reaches 8 yrs) then its 45K * .7 = 31.5K to buy and I get 50% of that back, so still under 20K CDN...I just don't support at all when some folks suggest that the trade needs to be near zero...there isn't evidence to that from Tesla, and maybe its artificial goodwill, and those in the know about batteries say it should be zero, but for some reason, thus far, it isn't.

And for the guys who did the 60 to 85kW upgrade, they did pay just a bit over the 12K number, and got the better cells too. If I again "assume" they give 80% on trade in, then it is actaully less than 12K to go from a three year old 85 to a 90 today and it seems some guys with deep pockets are going to do that with they do their Ludicrous upgrade...so we'll know soon enough.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by Xtrema


<edit> But failed battery doesn't seem to stop people buying Prius either.

I deleted and missed this point the first time, till I saw Rage's reply. Yep, I'm OK wth a "quasi predictable" battery failure rate too and will build the cost of this into my overall purchase decision, maybe a couple of years earlier than I had hoped, who know (but again, some of the battery swap will be offset by not having the higher rate and costs of engine and tranny failures common to other high Hp cars).

So, Prius is seeing high failure rates eh, even with 8 year warranty...hmm, most of my arguments would be off then.

If so, maybe I will need a battery at or before 8 years. Go Tesla, go Gigafactory, improve the tech, and reduce the cost, cause I want a 110kW pack in 5 years, that'll last 10 more years, and costs less than an 85 does today.

Just did a bit of research into the Prius battery life. Seems reasonable to expect 240,000km if treated well, but yes, there isn't much residual value at that point in time. Hope Tesla can do better with their battery tech, charging, etc than the older Priuses are doing.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Tearin


I deleted and missed this point the first time, till I saw Rage's reply. So Prius is seeng high failure rates eh, even with 8 year warranty...hmm, most of my arguments are off then.

[looks like I have a bit of Pruis battery failure rate research to do now, d'oh]

Don't worry about it, Prius uses ancient NiMH cells. The stuff you found in those giant Motorla cell phones in the 90s. Failure is expected. They are not using Li-Ion until this year when 3rd gen is released.

Li-Ion has much better history than NiMH.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Don't worry about it, Prius uses ancient NiMH cells. The stuff you found in those giant Motorla cell phones in the 90s. Failure is expected. They are not using Li-Ion until this year when 3rd gen is released.

Li-Ion has much better history than NiMH.

I did see posts saying the failure rate was dropping and they were getting slightly better in Pruis Gen II (cause they also have less miles so on my quick inspection, it was harder to distill as much info out of their smaller sample size wrt failure rates), but I didn't notice it (and probably should have) that most of what I read was probably about the NiMH ones and not Li-Ion...had me scared there for a bit that a lot of the info I read lurking in the Tesla forums might be overly optimistic....even info from the Tesla pessimists does't sound as bad as it does in the Prius forums (1% failure rate not reaching the 175k miles mark, etc)... ...it didn't make sense, there isn't a lot of naysayers in the Tesla forums saying PowerWalls and Model S's wont actually be able to do x cycles and y miles, so I was a bit concerned that I needed to dig into this a bit deeper...thanks for clearing that up.

Now I've got to find some dirt or gravel roads to test out the integration of the two motors and the AWD and the TC and post about that now, instead of waiting till winter to also be able to do it safely and without burning up rubber.

[B18C]

Pretty sure the tesla battery warranty doesn't cover battery degradation. It just covers failure from pretty much any reason.

That said battery degradation really isn't a big deal to me. At first I was pretty aware of it and only charge the battery to about 70% every night and made sure my car was plugged in every night because "a plugged in tesla is a happy tesla" - or however that saying goes.

With the news of the 90kwh battery available for swapping and teslas commitment to continue allowing owners to upgrade batteries this is no longer a concern for me. I charge my car to 90% every night even though it's totally overkill and if I forget to plug it in (which does happen even though it's literally right beside my car) I don't worry about it.

The range of the tesla is way more than I need on a daily basis and likely when I decide to upgrade my battery pack it will almost certainly be because I want to not because I have to. I haven't seen any owner of signature series Model S complain about significant loss of range to the point where it's become a huge issue. This leads me to believe that it probably won't be a big issue.

Again, my itch to have the latest and greatest will likely be the reason I replace the battery rather than any practical reason.

This is why I'm one of the first on the list at Vancouver's service centre to get the Ludacrious upgrade (to my wife's ultimate frustration). I highly doubt I'll be able to tell the difference between 3.1 and 2.8 seconds but I'm still getting it because I want it.

The growl on a big engine? That is one thing I don't miss at all. I find the silent power intoxicating. Sometimes I'll punch the accelerator just to be amazed and how quiet the car pulls.

[Tearin]

Originally posted by B18C
Pretty sure the tesla battery warranty doesn't cover battery degradation. It just covers failure from pretty much any reason.

I'm still hoping (naively maybe) that outside of the warranty period, after 8 years, if let's say the pack is at 70 or even 80% range, I would be able to swap to another 85 for at or near 12K USD.

Of course I'd put in the biggest available battery that fits a P85D at that time and gladly pay the upcharge, but I am hoping that the core trade-in would be LEAST 50% of the new cost for an 85kW pack. If we wanted to do the 85 to 90 swap now (i.e.: with the Ludicrous), it sure appears based on history, we would actually get at least 80% on our cores, tho some are arguing it should be 90%. Once a few do it, I'd be curious to see what the actual cost is, and then I could decide if it's worth it to me. I've asked Van too about it, but as we know, there's no firm pricing details yet in the USA (5K+ labour?), let alone Canada, for either Ludicrous, or the battery upgrade (which of course isn't needed, save for maybe that last .1 sec).

BTW, I have spoken to Van, they have quite a few on the waitlist for Ludicrous in Calgary. I suggested they load up the contactors and fuses, and drive them out and set up a shop for a month with a couple of Rangers, and do it here, vs having each of us pay another $800 or so to flatbed it there. I mentioned (politely) that the service center and store were supposed to be open in July, so we shouldn't have to still be relying on Rangers, and for major work, 2 flatbed trips, and that this should be moot by now, and they did say they considering it and other options (again, maybe I'm naive, but the discussion was that given that there are so many of us that want it here (highest per capita apparently) they might just do it here). The last time the Ranger was at my house, he pointed out that the issue is that most hoists can't be used to work on the Tesla batteries as they have to be wider than normal (I had offered to use mine for the swap, but it is about 6" narrower than the wheelbase on each side, so the battery can't be dropped using my style of hoist. They probably need a 4 post with butterfly arms that come in from the outside...but even with that, there one more problem (I can see that will make this harder for them to do here: it's not like an engine hoist can be used to lower the battery pack, I guess they must have a special jack at the service centers to do that (dunno, never googled battery hot swapping when it was announced, and it dies almost as fast as it came out). So I guess it's not as simple as renting a bay with a hoist here in town for a month to do us all, cause of the specialized jacks that may be needed. Dunno. Worst case, I think they should coordinate among us to maybe share shipping of of 2, 4, 6, or even 8 cars a a time (the maximum at one time that they can handle in their shop for the upgrade). It would be nice to get this before October, but I doubt we will see it before snow is on the ground...

[Tearin]

Originally posted by B18C

The growl on a big engine? That is one thing I don't miss at all. I find the silent power intoxicating. Sometimes I'll punch the accelerator just to be amazed and how quiet the car pulls.

It's a new sensation (or lack thereof) for sure, but it's the one thing I miss the most: flying thru the gears, hearing the exhaust, the blowoff, etc.

What I don't miss is stopping for gas, esp when it gets cold. But, the really weird part is every time I pass by a station I know has 94 octane, I instinctively look down to "check my gas gauge" (my other cars are tuned to need 94 or higher). So, I know where those stations are, and I can't drive by one in the Tesla without checking if a needs a fill. Maybe that's why buying an EV and relying on a limited charging infrastructure didn't scare me off much, as I'm already used to having WAAYYY fewer gas stations that have 94 (not like I can't put in 91 in a pinch and not drive @ WOT till I get to a 94 station).
[Rhetorical q: anyone know why we don't have Chevron in Alberta - I'm sure I can find the answer in a thread out there "somewhere" . Thankfully it seem at least one of the Alberta refineries are continuing to make 94 for us.]

[killramos]

You know the easy way to settle this once and for all would be call tesla service and ask them to quote you on a 90kW upgrade from your 85 w/ xxx km on the current trade in.

That's what I would do if I wanted to know how much something would cost for any other car lol.

As a current owner I would hope they would give you the time of day?