Has your office/company laid people off? PART 3

[HiTempguy1]

Interesting conversation on reddit about how contractors factor into unemployment:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com..._rate_do_they/

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by HiTempguy1
Interesting conversation on reddit about how contractors factor into unemployment:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/com..._rate_do_they/

Unemployment rate has always been about if you are looking for work and can't get one.

If you are not looking (as with someone with severance and wants to take a break), it's doesn't count.

If you are self employed, unless you laid yourself off to get EI, it also doesn't count. It's just a business with no revenue.

That's why if official rate is 6.7%, real rate is probably around 12-15%.

Unemployment also doesn't track quality. If you were making $100K and end up being a barista making $30k, you are still counted as employed but has 2/3 less contribution to the economy.

[pheoxs]

Originally posted by Xtrema



That's why if official rate is 6.7%, real rate is probably around 12-15%.

I highly doubt its anywhere near that high. People need to remember that while Oil and Gas is a significant driving force behind our GDP, it doesn't directly employ nearly as many as people think. Yes there's hundreds of thousands of workers in O&G and some of those jobs have been cut, a lot of which are contractors, but it is smaller in relation to the overall work force than people think.

The service industries, construction and trades, and the various industries that support oil and gas do not rely anywhere near as heavily on contractors as the direct O&G companies do and have all been hit hard as well.

So while say TransCanada may lay off 50/50 contractors vs employees, the rest of the province's industries are nowhere near that ratio.

Plus there's lots of contractors that will lose their job, and be seeking any kind of work, even as an employee, and will get reflected in the unemployment rate. Or as you said before, they take alternate jobs to make ends meet. But underemployment is a different issue all together.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by pheoxs


I highly doubt its anywhere near that high. People need to remember that while Oil and Gas is a significant driving force behind our GDP, it doesn't directly employ nearly as many as people think. Yes there's hundreds of thousands of workers in O&G and some of those jobs have been cut, a lot of which are contractors, but it is smaller in relation to the overall work force than people think.

The service industries, construction and trades, and the various industries that support oil and gas do not rely anywhere near as heavily on contractors as the direct O&G companies do and have all been hit hard as well.

So while say TransCanada may lay off 50/50 contractors vs employees, the rest of the province's industries are nowhere near that ratio.

Plus there's lots of contractors that will lose their job, and be seeking any kind of work, even as an employee, and will get reflected in the unemployment rate. Or as you said before, they take alternate jobs to make ends meet. But underemployment is a different issue all together.

Well, then again you may be right. 35000 positions only accounts of ~1 to 2% of employment in Alberta.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by pheoxs


I highly doubt its anywhere near that high. People need to remember that while Oil and Gas is a significant driving force behind our GDP, it doesn't directly employ nearly as many as people think. Yes there's hundreds of thousands of workers in O&G and some of those jobs have been cut, a lot of which are contractors, but it is smaller in relation to the overall work force than people think.

The service industries, construction and trades, and the various industries that support oil and gas do not rely anywhere near as heavily on contractors as the direct O&G companies do and have all been hit hard as well.

So while say TransCanada may lay off 50/50 contractors vs employees, the rest of the province's industries are nowhere near that ratio.

Plus there's lots of contractors that will lose their job, and be seeking any kind of work, even as an employee, and will get reflected in the unemployment rate. Or as you said before, they take alternate jobs to make ends meet. But underemployment is a different issue all together.

You realize that cutting one engineer in the office and shelving one ongoing rig project, that they were managing, would directly impact at least 10 rig hands, and 2 supervisors? That's the direct impact, indirect would be welders, hotel or camp staff, truck drivers, HR and safety officers, etc. Now imagine that on the scale of scrapping a plant that team or department had started building but was cut due to low prices or liquidity issues.

[r3ccOs]

Originally posted by cosmok


You realize that cutting one engineer in the office and shelving one ongoing rig project, that they were managing, would directly impact at least 10 rig hands, and 2 supervisors? That's the direct impact, indirect would be welders, hotel or camp staff, truck drivers, HR and safety officers, etc. Now imagine that on the scale of scrapping a plant that team or department had started building but was cut due to low prices or liquidity issues.

1 in 6 jobs in Alberta are directly related/induced by O&G

[vengie]

Originally posted by r3ccOs


1 in 6 jobs in Alberta are directly related/induced by O&G

Do you have a source for this stat? genuinely curious as I honestly figured that value would be higher. Would be interesting to read up on.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by vengie
Do you have a source for this stat? genuinely curious as I honestly figured that value would be higher. Would be interesting to read up on.

It is much higher. Just think about the car/rv/boat/atv dealerships and luxury goods retailers and their bottom line when a good portion of the population is either jobless or seeing paycuts.

People will be losing jobs in these areas too when O&G jobs are lost.

[vengie]

Originally posted by sputnik


It is much higher. Just think about the car/rv/boat/atv dealerships and luxury goods retailers and their bottom line when a good portion of the population is either jobless or seeing paycuts.

People will be losing jobs in these areas too when O&G jobs are lost.

This is what I figured, I was having a discussion with hairdresser at Tommy Guns yesterday and she said they are definitely starting to feel the downturn there also.

[speedog]

Originally posted by pheoxs


I highly doubt its anywhere near that high.

You should rethink you position on this, I've been self employed for the last 8+ years and haven't paid a cent into EI which means I'm not part of their stats. I'm sure there's many others out there like me.

[CompletelyNumb]

I would agree that 1 in 6 residents of alberta work directly in Oil and Gas. But I'd also guess that 3 out of 6 will be directly affected by a collapsing oil patch. We may be the minority industry, but it's reasonable to assume we're the majority spenders and earners.

[sillysod]

I know that going to the electrical wholesalers (Eecol, Noramco, Anixter etc.) they are really feeling the pinch.

They had the girl at the order desk cutting cable last time I went because the guy that cut cable was "expendable" according to her. All the big guys orders are 1/2 of what they were and you have some of the industrial contractors (like Flint) ordering materials for light commercial work now.

[holden]

Just read on Reddit that Enbridge laid off 5% today. Not sure how accurate that is. Quite a surprise because it's the first I've heard of it and I work in midstream.

[msommers]

We had our hot water tank needing repair, and I asked how business had been. According to him he's definitely slower than normal as more and more laid-off O&G pipefitters and plumbers are doing cash jobs or working for family/friends where normally those individuals would seek out a commercial outfit.

I wonder how the food courts downtown are doing, if they're noticing a decline. Less people willing to pay for lunch and rather bring their own.

AB as a whole relies an enormous amount on the success of the O&G sector. It would be ignornant and just plain wrong to think it's the guys on a rig or in their cubicles downtown.

Although I am surprised to hear students getting internships (Nexen) and summer hires (Husky and Chevron). I guess in some ways they're the cheapest labour one can get in an office role

[Cos]

.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by msommers
Although I am surprised to hear students getting internships (Nexen) and summer hires (Husky and Chevron). I guess in some ways they're the cheapest labour one can get in an office role

In my opinion, you have to waste 50% FTE to train up 2 to 3 interns before they are useful in about 3 months. 9 times out of 10.

The other 1/10 are interns who are smart or had previous experience so he/she can hit the ground running with little effort.

[dandia89]

Originally posted by Xtrema


In my opinion, you have to waste 50% FTE to train up 2 to 3 interns before they are useful in about 3 months. 9 times out of 10.

The other 1/10 are interns who are smart or had previous experience so he/she can hit the ground running with little effort.

i don't get it. sure they are cheap, but most of them are clueless and just follow orders, some not even well.

you can't blame them, they are not familiar with the office/field environment. waste of $$$, especially since some of the ones at TC make so much money

[msommers]

Originally posted by Xtrema


In my opinion, you have to waste 50% FTE to train up 2 to 3 interns before they are useful in about 3 months. 9 times out of 10.

The other 1/10 are interns who are smart or had previous experience so he/she can hit the ground running with little effort.

Given the guys getting the job offers that I know, they have previous experience so it's true, they aren't starting from scratch.

[idriveabox]

500 announced at Enbridge today.

[Mibz]

Originally posted by dandia89
most of them are clueless and just follow orders, some not even well.

Are we talking about interns or all O&G employees?

Originally posted by msommers
I wonder how the food courts downtown are doing, if they're noticing a decline. Less people willing to pay for lunch and rather bring their own.

I think the people who are still employed are still buying their lunch, line-ups aren't much shorter than normal. I go early though, so somebody who eats at noon is probably better to comment.