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Will the FOMC Raise Rates - Dec 2015 - Poll - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

View Poll Results: Will the Fed raise rates in Dec 2015

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  • Yes

    8 19.51%
  • No

    13 31.71%
  • Probably

    9 21.95%
  • I doubt it

    8 19.51%
  • I don't know

    1 2.44%
  • I don't care

    2 4.88%
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Thread: Will the FOMC Raise Rates - Dec 2015 - Poll

  1. #1
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    Default Will the FOMC Raise Rates - Dec 2015 - Poll

    After nearly 7 years of rates at near zero levels, the Fed FOMC is estimated by certain groups to have a 75% chance of a rate increase to 0.25% interest rates.

    With terrorist attacks around the world, ongoing wars, major nations reducing lending rates (some to negative), financial crisis around the world, strong US dollar hurting US exports, and weak oil prices depressing jobs in the energy sectors.
    As well as high involuntary unemployment.

    With all of those negatives, and on the positive side you have a strong auto sales numbers?

    To me it doesn't seem likely they will change the rate at the next meeting, but let's do a poll of what other people think.

    The Fed chair Yellen has mentioned that a rate increase at the Dec meeting is a 'live possibility', but it's worth noting that it has been a live possibility for the last 7 years, at times obviously a more remote possibility than others. As Peter Schiff has pointed out, it's possible that Yellen has a sex change operation before the next meeting, but a possibility doesn't mean that it's probable.
    Last edited by Modelexis; 12-03-2015 at 03:15 PM.
    "Anarchism is not a romantic fable but the hardheaded realization, based on five thousand years of experience, that we cannot entrust the management of our lives to kings, priests, politicians, generals, and county commissioners."

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    Your poll sucks. "Yes" and "Probably" are the same thing, as is "No" or "Doubt It". That is unless you can see into the future...

    I thought for sure they'd raise, but with more QE in Europe, who knows. My guess is 0.25% raise.

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    Originally posted by Feruk
    Your poll sucks. "Yes" and "Probably" are the same thing, as is "No" or "Doubt It". That is unless you can see into the future...

    I thought for sure they'd raise, but with more QE in Europe, who knows. My guess is 0.25% raise.
    Probably = Cautiously optimistic
    Yes = Without a doubt

    In your situation it sounds like you fall under "probably"
    Someone else might say "Yellen has shown her cards, she has made every indication she will raise, it's about time and they have to, they have no other choice at this point"
    They would fall under "Yes"
    Last edited by Modelexis; 12-03-2015 at 04:52 PM.
    "Anarchism is not a romantic fable but the hardheaded realization, based on five thousand years of experience, that we cannot entrust the management of our lives to kings, priests, politicians, generals, and county commissioners."

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    I don't think they will. I chose 'No' not sure if I should have selected 'I doubt it' instead.

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    Originally posted by roopi
    I don't think they will. I chose 'No' not sure if I should have selected 'I doubt it' instead.
    Are you cautious about your prediction with any hesitation or are you very confident?

    If it's the former, you should vote 'I doubt it'

    Any more questions you have about the english language feel free to ask.
    "Anarchism is not a romantic fable but the hardheaded realization, based on five thousand years of experience, that we cannot entrust the management of our lives to kings, priests, politicians, generals, and county commissioners."

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    Default

    .
    Last edited by 01RedDX; 09-24-2020 at 11:03 AM.

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    Inclusion of Chinese yuan into SDR didn't change the outlook of that currency and it will remain weak.

    I still think US will raise 1/4 just to have a feel. Against a weak yuan, I think that's all they can do.

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    Originally posted by Modelexis


    Are you cautious about your prediction with any hesitation or are you very confident?

    If it's the former, you should vote 'I doubt it'

    Any more questions you have about the english language feel free to ask.
    Should your second sentence have a period? Should 'english' not be 'English'?

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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_8-Ball

    Magic 8-ball says "Don't count on it".

    Only a farmer uses yes or no as an answer.
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    Originally posted by roopi


    Should your second sentence have a period? Should 'english' not be 'English'?
    I would also put a comma after "hesitation", but that's me.

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    Some apparently 'strong' jobs numbers came out today, lots of talking heads saying this is the final confirmation that they will move without question.
    "Anarchism is not a romantic fable but the hardheaded realization, based on five thousand years of experience, that we cannot entrust the management of our lives to kings, priests, politicians, generals, and county commissioners."

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    I will be surprised if they don't.

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    So question for you guys:

    For a 0.25 increase how much would that affect the dollar? Would we see Canadian currency drop to 0.70? Or lower?

    I know there's more to it than just interest rates, but I would guess we should see something in the near future.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    I'm no authority on the subject, but I think a rate increase by the Fed will cause the USD to drop and CAD to raise slightly.

    It's another one of those things where you have wide range of opinions and you won't know who is correct until the day comes.
    "Anarchism is not a romantic fable but the hardheaded realization, based on five thousand years of experience, that we cannot entrust the management of our lives to kings, priests, politicians, generals, and county commissioners."

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    Originally posted by Modelexis
    I'm no authority on the subject, but I think a rate increase by the Fed will cause the USD to drop and CAD to raise slightly.

    It's another one of those things where you have wide range of opinions and you won't know who is correct until the day comes.
    Generally interest rate hikes cause an appreciation in a currency relative to a basket. A drop in rates causes a decrease.

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    Originally posted by Darkane
    So question for you guys:

    For a 0.25 increase how much would that affect the dollar? Would we see Canadian currency drop to 0.70? Or lower?

    I know there's more to it than just interest rates, but I would guess we should see something in the near future.
    Our regulators/central-planners/dummies are in a bind. They've let the real estate bubble grow to epic proportions. The mainstay of the economy, Oil, is in the dumps and getting no priority in terms of policy support (ie canceling the pipeline west, and not forcing the pipeline east, etc.). As a result, housing is becoming a relatively bigger part of the economy, despite its precarious position.

    So how do they handle the fed move? By following it - and accelerating the deflation of housing? Do they drop rates, to support housing and kill the dollar?

    If oil continues to suck ass, we are probably headed to 70-ish cents with the fed hike.

    If it looks like we might get a major housing correction, and we drop rates, then who knows where the bottom is for the dollar. 60?

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    Originally posted by Modelexis
    I'm no authority on the subject, but I think a rate increase by the Fed will cause the USD to drop and CAD to raise slightly.

    It's another one of those things where you have wide range of opinions and you won't know who is correct until the day comes.
    Why is every economist saying that US raising rates will depreciate the loonie then? People will want to move money into the US (and as a result out of Canada).

    I'm pretty sure it will weaken the CAD (assuming the BoC does not move). Even when the latest US job numbers came out with results that pretty much made the Fed rate hike a sure thing, the loonie dropped against the dollar on that news. I actually think a lot of it it already built into the prices of both currencies. The rate hike this month is pretty much expected, so I wouldn't expect a big change like if it had been a surprise.

    The big question is how much and how long will the Fed raise rates. If you look back in history, the Fed usually doesn't make one rate change and then stop. It usually raises (or lowers) for a couple of years. Once the liftoff begins, it could really affect the loonie over time. It would be really bad for Canada if the loonie drops, but it doesn't help manufacturing or exports. I don't think the value of the CAD against the US dollar matters as much as the strength of the loonie against other export economies, like Mexico and China.

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    I don't know how much history will play into the rate strategy here. We have never been in this spot, so we don't know how a hike will impact things.

    We might see a hike, and then a shitstorm, and then more QE for instance.

    It's a really tough spot for all of the central planner types that thought they were smarter than they are.

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    Yeah I agree. Uncharted territory.

    I would love to see more auto manufacturing coming here from the states, something like Acura moving up here and if they see savings. I can't see foreign manufacturers coming here instead of Mexico.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

  20. #20
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    Originally posted by Darkane
    Yeah I agree. Uncharted territory.

    I would love to see more auto manufacturing coming here from the states, something like Acura moving up here and if they see savings. I can't see foreign manufacturers coming here instead of Mexico.
    Canada is too friendly to unions.

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