US oil export ban lifted

[Xtrema]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ar...oil-export-ban

Ends the 40 year old ban on export.

EDIT: new link to avoid pay wall.

[Zhariak]

Was it actually lifted? Or just approved to be lifted by Congress?

Doesn't it have to pass a few other levels, or was that the highest level.

It's going to be interesting to see what this does to the markets...

[Mibz]

If you're gonna link a subscription article, please quote the full-text in your post.

[rage2]

Originally posted by Mibz
If you're gonna link a subscription article, please quote the full-text in your post.

Once a pirate, always a pirate.

[Zhariak]

There's still a huge chance this will get veto'd.... Just saying...

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Zhariak
There's still a huge chance this will get veto'd.... Just saying...

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/ar...oil-export-ban

White house already signal support. And there is enough stuff in the bill to make Democrats happy.

US Feds actually all got together to get something done, shocker.

[suntan]

I hope there was a rider for the perverted arts.

[oz388]

game over for Canadian oil sand business...Calgary is going back into stone age

[ExtraSlow]

Actually, the US being able to export oil helps Canadian producers including the oil sands in a couple of ways.
1) Oil transported from Canada through the USA is already legal to export. However, the logistics of keeping it separate, and keeping separate records for it versus the USA-pumped oil that may share the same infrastructure was onerous. If it can be freely mixed with the US oil that is in the same pipes and tanks, that makes it cheaper and simpler to export Canadian oil as well.
2) A lot of the Gulf Coast refineries were designed to run on heavy and mid-heavy grades of crude. diluted bitumen from Canada is a really good operational fit for them, whereas the lighter oil from the newer shale plays is not. Exporting that light oil and preferentially refining the heavier oil should make economic sense for the refiners, and should make heavier oils marginally more attractive.

Now, neither of these factors are going to add tens of dollars to the price paid to Canadian producers, but they are small steps in the right direction.

Another benefit is that the entire continent will be less storage-restricted than it has been in the past. If Cushing is filling up, a few ULCC Supertankers can draw that down a significant amount, and much faster than building new storage.

[benyl]

Originally posted by oz388
game over for Canadian oil sand business...Calgary is going back into stone age

I can't see how this is anything but good for Canada. Tell me how this is negative for Calgary?

[oz388]

Originally posted by benyl


I can't see how this is anything but good for Canada. Tell me how this is negative for Calgary?

1. While Canada still haven't figured out a way to ship oil out of the country (to Non US markets), US is already becoming our biggest competitor next door for export. I think this move cornered Canada making all proposed pipeline projects uneconomic to develop. Since Canada can not sell a single drop of oil independently to anywhere else but US; Alberta oil will be completely monopolized by the US resulting even wider price differentials compare to WTI price.

2. US exports oil is a sign of more supply and less demand; this will only impact global oil market negatively.

1 + 2 = under $20 per barrel for Alberta oil and this is definitely not positive to Calgary. I think 2016 is just a beginning of the downturn for our city and it will get much worse before a recovery. (You have to remember that oil price crash is not simply a result of supply and demand issue; its a lot tied to the political issues so in my opinion the effect will last much longer than most people would anticipate.)

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by oz388


1. While Canada still haven't figured out a way to ship oil out of the country (to Non US markets), US is already becoming our biggest competitor next door for export. I think this move cornered Canada making all proposed pipeline projects uneconomic to develop. Since Canada can not sell a single drop of oil independently to anywhere else but US; Alberta oil will be completely monopolized by the US resulting even wider price differentials compare to WTI price.

2. US exports oil is a sign of more supply and less demand; this will only impact global oil market negatively.

1 + 2 = under $20 per barrel for Alberta oil and this is definitely not positive to Calgary. I think 2016 is just a beginning of the downturn for our city and it will get much worse before a recovery. (You have to remember the oil price crash is not simply a supply and demand issue; a lot tied to the political issues in my opinion.)

1/2 full vs 1/2 empty.

US got so much oil and no outlet, they have to buy 0 oil from Canada.

or

US now (easier) can resell for us on the world market.

I would take the latter of 2 scenario any day until we have outlet of our own to put our products on the world market.

Regardless, we already knew US don't need us for long. It's just about 4 years earlier than most predictions.

[oz388]

Originally posted by Xtrema


1/2 full vs 1/2 empty.

US got so much oil and no outlet, they have to buy 0 oil from Canada.

or

US now (easier) can resell for us on the world market.

I would take the latter of 2 scenario any day until we have outlet of our own to put our products on the world market.

Regardless, we already knew US don't need us for long. It's just about 4 years earlier than most predictions.

Either way US obviously wants oil price to stay low, and at current price we will never get our outlet build.

[OU812]

When there is a will there is a way and sadly there is no will.

[revelations]

Originally posted by oz388
1 + 2 = under $20 per barrel for Alberta oil and this is definitely not positive to Calgary. I think 2016 is just a beginning of the downturn for our city and it will get much worse before a recovery. (You have to remember that oil price crash is not simply a result of supply and demand issue; its a lot tied to the political issues so in my opinion the effect will last much longer than most people would anticipate.)

There is a heck of a lot going on politically. Part of it (I wonder) might be the Americans trying to drive the alternative energy economy down with ultra low prices for fossil fuels. Also, the QE program from the American Fed Reserve was tied in to the speculators.

The charts for global consumption appear to show a steady growth in the amount of consumption world-wide however.

[ExtraSlow]

oz388, did you read what I wrote? Wondering if you did and disagree? I'm always interested to hear critiques of my viewpoints.

[SilverRex]

if history repeats itself, the alternative solution for this downturn is...War. though what i have been hearing it is more of a currency war between the east and west. buckle up, one world monetary system here we come

[oz388]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
oz388, did you read what I wrote? Wondering if you did and disagree? I'm always interested to hear critiques of my viewpoints.

IMO, US will turn Canadians to their cheap oil famer if Canada solely relies on US for oil demand and export; as always US takes all the profit from the trade and leave bones for us to gnaw on. I really don't see a lot positives for Canada when US begins to export their oil to the global market.

1. Oil price will go down further due to additional supply and reduced demand from US.
2. Canada will not able to finance pipeline projects for oil independency.
3. Wider oil price differential between Alberta oil and WTI.
4. Canada becomes US's oil farmer indefinitely.
5. Most junior and intermediate Canadian oil producers will be gone along with the jobs.
6. Alberta population will decrease.
7. Alberta housing market begin to collapse.

[Zhariak]

Originally posted by oz388


IMO, US will turn Canadians to their cheap oil famer if Canada solely relies on US for oil demand and export; as always US takes all the profit from the trade and leave bones for us to gnaw on. I really don't see a lot positives for Canada when US begins to export their oil to the global market.

1. Oil price will go down further due to additional supply and reduced demand from US.
2. Canada will not able to finance pipeline projects for oil independency.
3. Wider oil price differential between Alberta oil and WTI.
4. Canada becomes US's oil farmer indefinitely.
5. Most junior and intermediate Canadian oil producers will be gone along with the jobs.
6. Alberta population will decrease.
7. Alberta housing market begin to collapse.

Either way the Canadian gov sounds like it's on a mission to stop us from moving product to coasts to ship out to an international market anyway, so we'd be stuck anyways... Or at least until the next election...

[suntan]

Reduced demand from the US?

Why do you think this will happen? US oil usage is at an all time high.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclem...15-and-beyond/