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Thread: $50 oil, now what?

  1. #221
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    Originally posted by sputnik




    I think it doesn't take much to recognize that the further north you go the worse your solar potential gets.
    Here you are:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    TL;DR - Alberta is the best place in Canada to generate solar power.

    Data pulled from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/18366

    EDIT:

    Now with 100% more pictures.

    click for larger version
    » Click image for larger version

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    I still think $300 a foot includes the lot. As plain build cost, that's extreme. I built our garage at the new place, and developed the basement. If builders are charging 300 a foot for build, wowamunga that is some huge margin.

    I think a realistic build cost is $175 to $200.

    Then again, a friend bought new, and it's options they nail you on. If you are can only afford down 10% or less, basically they have you by the short curly ones, because they can charge ridiculous fees for basics. They paid about double what granite is worth as in upgrade, and it's the cheapest looking granite I have seen. Same as non standard paint colours or accent walls, tiles and so on. But you pay it because that way, it's financed, and not out of pocket.

    Nevermind, I can actually see how then pad the prices.

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    Originally posted by rx7_turbo2


    At least A790 posts actual links to real stories.

    "My position is solid because, well, there's a guy"
    I may be a monkey mechanic, but I know how to Google, and I'm sure everyone else can to. I did my research before spending my money, I don't need to do it again, or prove it to liars like Mr peak Shave. Reading our meters hourly. I'm still laughing.

  4. #224
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    Originally posted by A790

    Here you are:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    TL;DR - Alberta is the best place in Canada to generate solar power.

    Data pulled from: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/18366

    EDIT:

    Now with 100% more pictures.

    click for larger version
    » Click image for larger version
    That doesn't really paint an accurate picture. If you include the month to month graphs you see the yield falls down dramatically in the winter due to both angle of the sun and shortness of the days. You also have to keep in mind that this is generally based on tracked solar which maintains the optimum angle through the day along with some form of wiper system. So yeah sure it's great in the summer when you're getting 16+ hours of sunlight and a great angle but pretty shit for the rest of the year when you're getting 8 hours of sunlight and the sun is low in the sky...

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    Most new builds in suburban communities are currently in the $230-$260/ft2 range include the lot.

    The costs without the lot are typically $140-$180/ft2.

    Thats with a pretty decent spec (granite counters, hardwood and tile floors, etc). Sky is the limit after upgrades.

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    Originally posted by 88CRX
    Most new builds in suburban communities are currently in the $230-$260/ft2 range include the lot.

    The costs without the lot are typically $140-$180/ft2.

    Thats with a pretty decent spec (granite counters, hardwood and tile floors, etc). Sky is the limit after upgrades.
    You are telling me, $260k gets a 1000sqft cookie cutter? Am I missing something here on the way you are quoting your /ft2 pricing?

    You are on crack son. Or maybe I haven't been able to find a new build in the outer communities of Edmonton for $300k or less because I am blind?

    Hell, a new build cookie cutter box in Red Deer won't be under $300k.

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    Originally posted by mazdavirgin


    That doesn't really paint an accurate picture. If you include the month to month graphs you see the yield falls down dramatically in the winter due to both angle of the sun and shortness of the days. You also have to keep in mind that this is generally based on tracked solar which maintains the optimum angle through the day along with some form of wiper system. So yeah sure it's great in the summer when you're getting 16+ hours of sunlight and a great angle but pretty shit for the rest of the year when you're getting 8 hours of sunlight and the sun is low in the sky...


    Once you get up into northern Alberta you are lucky to get 4-5 hours of sunlight during the day in the winter at a terribly low angle.

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1


    You are telling me, $260k gets a 1000sqft cookie cutter? Am I missing something here on the way you are quoting your /ft2 pricing?

    You are on crack son. Or maybe I haven't been able to find a new build in the outer communities of Edmonton for $300k or less because I am blind?

    Hell, a new build cookie cutter box in Red Deer won't be under $300k.
    New builds start in the $350's in Calgary. None are going to be 1,000 sqft though. Most starter homes are at least 1,350.
    Originally posted by mazdavirgin


    That doesn't really paint an accurate picture. If you include the month to month graphs you see the yield falls down dramatically in the winter due to both angle of the sun and shortness of the days. You also have to keep in mind that this is generally based on tracked solar which maintains the optimum angle through the day along with some form of wiper system. So yeah sure it's great in the summer when you're getting 16+ hours of sunlight and a great angle but pretty shit for the rest of the year when you're getting 8 hours of sunlight and the sun is low in the sky...
    Yea, that image doesn't show the whole picture. The sheet I posted has more complete data.

    The problems you posted above are valid, but also solvable for the most part. Systems that integrate position adjustment and some kind of cleaning/obstruction removal process are being developed. I don't think the technology is there yet, but at this point it's only a matter of time.

    Of course, you can't change how much sunlight you receive. Solar may not be able to offset all generation requirements, but with the right storage solution, it could be a viable contender as an efficient way to offset a nice chunk of it.

    I think solar will really gain ground in places like Alberta once we figure out storage. Costs of the panels themselves are dropping rapidly, and they are getting more efficient as well. Mid/long-term storage is the real challenge.

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1


    You are telling me, $260k gets a 1000sqft cookie cutter? Am I missing something here on the way you are quoting your /ft2 pricing?

    You are on crack son. Or maybe I haven't been able to find a new build in the outer communities of Edmonton for $300k or less because I am blind?

    Hell, a new build cookie cutter box in Red Deer won't be under $300k.
    Yes.

    Move up homes in the 2000-2400 ft2 range will be pretty bang on around $250/ft2 depending on the exact community your looking in.

    Starter homes in the 1300-1600ft2 range will be slightly higher on the per ft2 costs (obviously) in the $260-$280/ft2 range. That’s before you add a garage which is $20-$25k extra.

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    Effect just got back to me confirming that $300/sqft does not include lot.

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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1


    You are telling me, $260k gets a 1000sqft cookie cutter? Am I missing something here on the way you are quoting your /ft2 pricing?

    You are on crack son. Or maybe I haven't been able to find a new build in the outer communities of Edmonton for $300k or less because I am blind?

    Hell, a new build cookie cutter box in Red Deer won't be under $300k.
    30 seconds on google and I found these Hopewell ‘starter’ homes here:

    http://www.hopewellresidential.com/e...ly-homes/laned

    Hopewell Xeno quick possession in Secord.
    $366k / 1280 ft2 = $285/ft2

    Hopewell Xeno quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $360k / 1280 ft2 = $281/ft2

    Hopewell Coby quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $375k / 1432 ft2 = $261/ft2

    Hopewell Ecko2 quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $390k / 1570 ft2 = $248/ft2

    Hopewell Insight quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $420k / 1667 ft2 = $248/ft2

    Hopewell Ovation quick possession in McConachie
    $430k / 1704 ft2 = $252/ft2

    And these ‘move up’ homes here:

    http://www.hopewellresidential.com/e...ttached-garage

    Hopewell Reflex in McConachie
    $456k / 1870 ft2 = $243/ft2

    Hopewell Elemis in McConachie
    $510k / 2137 ft2 = $238/ft2

    Hopewell Optima in McConachie
    $517k / 2382 ft2 = $217/ft2


    That’s only 1 builder and that’s their list price before any negotiation. Quick possessions also typically include some upgrades (and quick often a lot of upgrades already). I know nothing about those neighbourhoods but doesn’t looks like anything that different then most of the new communities here in Calgary.

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    Originally posted by A790
    Effect just got back to me confirming that $300/sqft does not include lot.
    Whats the approximate sq2 of their homes?

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    Originally posted by sputnik




    I think it doesn't take much to recognize that the further north you go the worse your solar potential gets.
    Yes.

    Plus winter... snow reflects great but panels work like shit when covered with snow, and 8 hours of defused sunlight a day is pretty inefficient. So is heating them in minus 20 to stay snow free.

    Plus Alberta is dusty as fuck, which really hurts the efficiency in summer months.

    From what I've read the only people saying Alberta is a great place for solar panels are the people selling them, and they aren't citing data to back it up.

    Btw,I have a miracle tonic that is great for your health. It combines the versatility of hydrogen with the life giving powers of oxygen, and its so good once you've had it you won't be able to live without it. $100 a bottle for beyonders, just ignore the Evian label.

    ...getting your 'facts' from salesmen is retarded

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    Originally posted by 88CRX


    Whats the approximate sq2 of their homes?
    They are a custom homebuilder. The Belgravia (the net-zero home I linked above) is 1,540 sq ft.

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    Originally posted by A790
    The problems you posted above are valid, but also solvable for the most part. Systems that integrate position adjustment and some kind of cleaning/obstruction removal process are being developed. I don't think the technology is there yet, but at this point it's only a matter of time.
    The problems are already solved if you're talking about a dedicated solar generation stations but the cost/practical implications just don't work for roof mounted solar. The big issues is line of sight and the general impossibility of proper tracking being done on a roof. You really have to be in the middle of nowhere with a preferably flat open field and no terrain obstructions which is where you would put a proper solar generation station. The other stuff is solved with wiper/spray systems to deal with dust/snow again only really practical on large installations. Fundamentally though you're looking at a power generation system that's very peaky and it requires 1mW:1mW generation back up which makes it really really hard to sell as a workable large scale solution. You're better off just building one nuclear plant rather than building 1mW:1mW redundant power plants.

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    Originally posted by 88CRX


    30 seconds on google and I found these Hopewell ‘starter’ homes here:

    http://www.hopewellresidential.com/e...ly-homes/laned

    Hopewell Xeno quick possession in Secord.
    $366k / 1280 ft2 = $285/ft2

    Hopewell Xeno quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $360k / 1280 ft2 = $281/ft2

    Hopewell Coby quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $375k / 1432 ft2 = $261/ft2

    Hopewell Ecko2 quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $390k / 1570 ft2 = $248/ft2

    Hopewell Insight quick possession in Cavanagh.
    $420k / 1667 ft2 = $248/ft2

    Hopewell Ovation quick possession in McConachie
    $430k / 1704 ft2 = $252/ft2

    And these ‘move up’ homes here:

    http://www.hopewellresidential.com/e...ttached-garage

    Hopewell Reflex in McConachie
    $456k / 1870 ft2 = $243/ft2

    Hopewell Elemis in McConachie
    $510k / 2137 ft2 = $238/ft2

    Hopewell Optima in McConachie
    $517k / 2382 ft2 = $217/ft2


    That’s only 1 builder and that’s their list price before any negotiation. Quick possessions also typically include some upgrades (and quick often a lot of upgrades already). I know nothing about those neighbourhoods but doesn’t looks like anything that different then most of the new communities here in Calgary.
    See, those aren't starter homes. A starter home is a 1000sqft cookie cutter. As you may have noticed, the larger they get, the more the $/sqft comes down. Which makes sense, because the land costs a fixed value.

    So kind of reinforces my point. A $450k-$500k isn't a starter home.

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    Snow isn't a huge deal, but here is some data from NAIT

    https://solaralberta.ca/content/albe...rformance-data

    Or winter position I chose for my panels is be 80 degrees from horizontal. Not that it's a big difference. I'm really going to attempt east to west tracking eventually. But panels are suprisingly effective at many angles.
    Last edited by Gestalt; 03-16-2017 at 03:03 PM.

  18. #238
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    Originally posted by HiTempguy1


    See, those aren't starter homes. A starter home is a 1000sqft cookie cutter. As you may have noticed, the larger they get, the more the $/sqft comes down. Which makes sense, because the land costs a fixed value.

    So kind of reinforces my point. A $450k-$500k isn't a starter home.
    Those ‘laned homes’ are the new starter home.

    AND there are two homes on there for $360k, how is that “450-500k” like you keep mentioning.

    Did you even read my post?

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    Originally posted by Gestalt
    Snow isn't a huge deal, but here is some data from NAIT

    https://solaralberta.ca/content/albe...rformance-data

    Or winter position I chose for my panels is be 80 degrees from horizontal. Not that it's a big difference. I'm really going to attempt east to west tracking eventually. But panels are suprisingly effective at many angles.
    1" of snow will kill your panels efficiency by ~30-40%. Not a big deal? Sure if you're fudging your math and looking at year long energy losses it's not a "big" deal. I mean your panel already sucks in the winter anyways so what's a loss of 40% or more? Hell it only takes a few inches before the panels are yielding 0%

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    Do you read? Or just make things up?

    Beside that, How much snow are you going to accumulate at 80 degrees.
    Last edited by Gestalt; 03-16-2017 at 04:11 PM.

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