Elon Musk: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage

[BigMass]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/elon-...your-wage.html

I've been saying for years that a guaranteed basic income is not a debate topic but an inevitability. The only question is whether it comes sooner through a well thought out process, or later in response to a massive crisis. We all know humans like to act stupid until the SHTF, so most likely waiting for a crisis is what will trigger this in many countries, but I hope Canada is progressive enough to see it coming and start enacting this as soon as possible.

[nzwasp]

The thing is with a guaranteed basic income. With less people working where is the tax revenue to pay for such a scheme. Im kind of glad I work in automation when this sort of thing comes up.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by nzwasp
The thing is with a guaranteed basic income. With less people working where is the tax revenue to pay for such a scheme. Im kind of glad I work in automation when this sort of thing comes up.

Businesses benefit from societal advancements at almost zero cost. They can automate because smarter people than them have developed the ideas and technology to do so. They will give back to society through these taxes. The labor of the robots will make business far more profitable and able to pay more. If every Wal-Mart was able to have only a few highly educated employees and 100 robots, then Wal-Mart's profits will skyrocket into the trillions as will other companies and this money will go to pay the basic income. (not talking mom and pop shops) But, to a certain extent, companies like Apple and Google have not earned their money, but have exploited the system to create their wealth. Steve Jobs and Apple would be nothing without the discovery of quantum mechanics, but these academics and their families and not billionaires receiving royalty payments. The families of Paul Dirac and Niels Bohr are not raking in billions from Apple. Society will find a way to even this out and value labor in a completely different way especially when machines end up doing all the labor.

[Buster]

^ wow...what a bunch of nonsense.

Anyway....

automation will be gradual enough that people will adapt. Humans are relatively good at adapting to the slow moving train crash. There will be little pockets of the economy that will perceive crisis, but that's different. We've got many, many examples of people adapting to technology automating processes, and every generation thinks automation is a NEW THING THATS COMING WATCH OUT!!!!11!

But technology replacing human labour is a net benefit to society as it tends to make things really cheap. So we won't need to worry as much about where taxes come from, because things we need to buy with those taxes will be much cheaper.

People who worry about jobs when it comes to technology advancing are taking the position of the simpleton.

[ZenOps]

I for one, welcome our robot overlords.

[Sugarphreak]

....

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
It would no doubt lead to protests for the sake of protests

We have that now.

[Gestalt]

We will own the robots, and send them to work for us.

So nothing will change.

Nothing else make sense. If we are replaced by robots so the companies can save labour coats, who will be able to buy their product if we have no income?

[J-hop]

The fear of AI is overhyped in my opinion. All it will really do is slowly move the human workforce in to different fields. New fields of employment are growing all the time. People have been worrying about this exact same thing with every major invention. Each time people say "this time it's going to be different, this is the end for us" and it never is!

People had the exact same reaction to the invention of the computer and with 100% confidence I can say the computer created more jobs than it destroyed...

So IMO it really is just the same hysteria playing out again...

[blairtruck]

im a land surveyor. for 10 years now my job has been to stand behind the instrument and control it while my helper did the grunt work.
Now my instrument is robotic. turns itself. Now i dont have a helper and have to do the grunt work myself while the robot does what i use to do. company saves the money of the helper. my job got more manual labor for the same wage.
LAAAME.

[ZenOps]

Will the human mind ever become obsolete?

Elon believes there is a 99% chance we are already in the matrix anyhow, so we probably have been obsolete for a while now.



Its not the human body that the robots (automation) are replacing, they have been doing that for hundreds of years. Its the mind that is what is really important.

[revelations]

Originally posted by blairtruck
im a land surveyor. for 10 years now my job has been to stand behind the instrument and control it while my helper did the grunt work.
Now my instrument is robotic. turns itself. Now i dont have a helper and have to do the grunt work myself while the robot does what i use to do. company saves the money of the helper. my job got more manual labor for the same wage.
LAAAME.

Who is going to carry your marker posts/lathe, in the bush, through trees and 3' of snow, while you carry around the gun and a saw......




It will be the same thing with automated trucks, automated aircraft (with one pilot as backup).

In clear sunny weather, automated trucks should be fine - but good luck getting a computer to put on chains on the side of the Coquihalla / Rogers Pass and trying to guess where the road is in mid-January.

[revelations]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Will the human mind ever become obsolete?

Elon believes there is a 99% chance we are already in the matrix anyhow, so we probably have been obsolete for a while now.

Elon isnt the only one saying this - even Physicists are stating that our "construct" might just be a giant hologram of some kind.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the...giant-hologram

[J-hop]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Will the human mind ever become obsolete?

Elon believes there is a 99% chance we are already in the matrix anyhow, so we probably have been obsolete for a while now.



Its not the human body that the robots (automation) are replacing, they have been doing that for hundreds of years. Its the mind that is what is really important.

While I believe you have a point from the strict computational standpoint I haven't seen any examples where they were able to replicate creative thought with a computer.

[Gestalt]

A lot of what appears to be creative thoght in humans, is combining unrelated experiences and knowledge, trial and error and even accidents. Computers have no problem replicating this, and doing it better.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Buster
^ wow...what a bunch of nonsense.

automation will be gradual enough that people will adapt.

People who worry about jobs when it comes to technology advancing are taking the position of the simpleton.

"the simpleton" lol. You begin with a completely faulty premise therefore your conclusion is false. Automation is not gradual or linear it is exponential and will hit us as a society much faster than you expect. And to make my position clear, I am %100 for automation and the faster we can continue to permeate our society with it the better. Your ideas are extremely outdated.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Buster
^ wow...what a bunch of nonsense.

Anyway....

automation will be gradual enough that people will adapt. Humans are relatively good at adapting to the slow moving train crash. There will be little pockets of the economy that will perceive crisis, but that's different. We've got many, many examples of people adapting to technology automating processes, and every generation thinks automation is a NEW THING THATS COMING WATCH OUT!!!!11!

But technology replacing human labour is a net benefit to society as it tends to make things really cheap. So we won't need to worry as much about where taxes come from, because things we need to buy with those taxes will be much cheaper.

People who worry about jobs when it comes to technology advancing are taking the position of the simpleton.

Originally posted by BigMass


"the simpleton" lol. You begin with a completely faulty premise therefore your conclusion is false. Automation is not gradual or linear it is exponential and will hit us as a society much faster than you expect. And to make my position clear, I am %100 for automation and the faster we can continue to permeate our society with it the better. Your ideas are extremely outdated.

BigMass is onto something. Automation has seemed linear due to its slow pace, but once it starts to overtake many industries, it's exponential effects will be felt by many. Truck, taxi and bus drivers will be one area to be hit fairly rapidly, leading to many many job losses in that industry. If job aren't immediately replaced in another sector, the net losses will be huge.

https://www.weforum.org/press/2016/0...al-revolution/

[zhao]

meh. Automation does not worry me.


What is of far more importance to our future is the rapidly increasing population and the widening wealth gap.

So automation with the above two factors is a potential nightmare, but without them it's quite a good thing.

There is absolutely nothing good long term about our population increasing however.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Canmorite


BigMass is onto something. Automation has seemed linear due to its slow pace, but once it starts to overtake many industries, it's exponential effects will be felt by many. Truck, taxi and bus drivers will be one area to be hit fairly rapidly, leading to many many job losses in that industry. If job aren't immediately replaced in another sector, the net losses will be huge.

https://www.weforum.org/press/2016/0...al-revolution/

Thanks for that. I think people over estimate the transitional jobs as automation and technology improve. Buster was right about the past. You had new industries that took over from older ones. Some lost jobs, and some new ones were created. But that effect is anachronistic and the majority of jobs that are lost today are not coming back and will not be replaced. Look, nobody is going to wake up tomorrow and find out that all of a sudden robots are replacing every job out there. That is not the point. But a %12, %15 or %20 unemployment rate for a nation is not a sustainable societal model without something like guaranteed income. There will still be plenty of jobs out there, I agree with that. But not enough unless you want to see 20 homeless people outside your suburban McMansion on a daily basis huddled around trashcan fires to keep warm.

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

The second thing, which is just as scary... is having a massive population of people who are basically wandering around with nothing to do.

You are a smart guy that I respect but I disagree with this with extreme prejudice. I feel that a society that is not dependent on the everyday struggle for basic survival will be one that has more time for education, learning, arts, science, philosophy, healthy balanced living, and other pursuits that will make our country a far better place than it is now.

Originally posted by ZenOps
Will the human mind ever become obsolete?

Elon believes there is a 99% chance we are already in the matrix anyhow, so we probably have been obsolete for a while now.

PS. The entire concept that we are currently living in a simulation is no more intellectually sound than watching the Matrix. It is, "possible" but has zero facts or evidence to back it up. Elon is a dreamer and has fun with things that most people take too seriously and don't really understand. A lot of scientists talk this way trying to be, "science popularists" and the media really blows it out of proportion. It's too bad the media pays more attention to this type of talk than to real science. It's not, 'false' per-se but completely hypothetical.

[Sugarphreak]

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