Currency speculation: Where will CAD go?

[ExtraSlow]

This topic gets discussed pretty often in other financial threads, but I thought it deserves its own spot.

What do you think will happen to the Canadian dollar in 2017 and 2018? Obviously the biggest comparison is with USD, but if you want to mention Euro, Yuan or others go nuts.

Today, December 23 2016 CAD is worth about $0.74 USD. I've heard talk of it getting down to $0.65, but my guess is that it goes mostly sideways for a while. Personally I can't see a strong reason it would appreciate much in the next year.

[A790]

Just sold a thing for $15k USD. I'm fine as long as the dollar doesn't reach parity.

[Jlude]

With 95% + of my customers being in the USA, I would love to see it at .65, but we'll see how if that happens, maybe close, but who knows. It's been bouncing back and forth lately, It's difficult to tell where it's going to go, just a few days ago it went down to 1.32, now back to 1.35.

[ercchry]

I think we will know more after Q1 2017, trump at one point wanted a weaker dollar... which the markets are not currently reflecting, so we'll have to wait and see on that one. But on our side of things, we're commodity based so if OPEC actually holds this cut and we see oil stabilize around $60 then that will add a little strength to our dollar and you might see the gap close a bit

[ExtraSlow]

My take is that oil and natural gas are likely to go up slightly, but that source of strength is unlikely to offset the many other sources of weakness for the CAD. That's why I am guessing it'll go pretty much sideways from here.

[NoPulp]

+1 poor CAD is good for business. 75% of my stuff goes south.

Poor CAD is bad for car parts though
Staying the same would be nice i guess

[benyl]

Interest rates will affect the price more than oil.

[flipstah]

Depends on your association to the market. Personally, parity is awesome.

[ZenOps]

Nickel will be money again. US dollar will have support because Trump wants to build more nukes. Basic assumption: The US is not so much an oil dollar, but a military dollar reliant on oil or nuclear to function.

All Commonwealth currencies could be in for a ride when Elizabeth passes to Charles.

More third world nations will ban billnote paper cash and require everything go digital. But I do not expect the US dollar to go completely digital for at least a decade.

[Chandler_Racing]

A function of oil and divergence between CAD & US interest rate policy in my opinion suggests a 70c dollar. Don't see it moving to 65c but we will see.

[dirtsniffer]

Your slipping zen. We all know Liz isn't going down until after Charles.

[Twin_Cam_Turbo]

+1 poor CAD is good for business for us too.

I think it'll stay around 0.73-0.75 personally.

[Buster]

There are many billions of dollars worth of capital managers and other "experts", and a huge bandwidth of overall market activity full of smart people where 50% of them believe it will go up and 50% believe it will go down.

So there is little point in discussing data and speculation, and educated guesses. The ONLY thing you can do with currencies is guess.

[HiTempguy1]

I import from the USA and Europe. GO UP CAD GO UP!



Luckily, all of my profit margins are based on a .75usd/cad exchange, so it really doesn't matter. I just don't want to see .65

[2000impreza]

Originally posted by benyl
Interest rates will affect the price more than oil.

Pretty much this. It looks like there is pressure in the US to raise the interest rate. Ours... looks like it may flat line for the next year. My bs guess without knowing much is the cdn dollar will flat line at best or trend lower.

[Feruk]

The wide belief is 3 interest rate raises in 2017 and 3 more in 2018. If Canada follows suit, I'd guess we'd stay close to $0.75. But I doubt they'll follow suit because of the housing mess it'd create.

[NoSup4U]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I've heard talk of it getting down to $0.65,

Only on one post within Beyond have I seen this

CDN has seen its bottom against our southern neighbors. 2017 will show between .73 and .84 USD average. As much as we want to see a stronger dollar, I believe we are going to to see a shift in other global currencies against the USD, similar to ours.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Buster
There are many billions of dollars worth of capital managers and other "experts", and a huge bandwidth of overall market activity full of smart people where 50% of them believe it will go up and 50% believe it will go down.

So there is little point in discussing data and speculation, and educated guesses. The ONLY thing you can do with currencies is guess.

The same could be said about most of the investing and finance discussions on this forum, but we all have fun posting our thoughts and having a discussion. If it's not interesting for you to hear us speculate, then go have a merry christmas, somewhere else.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by NoSup4U Only on one post within Beyond have I seen this

CDN has seen its bottom against our southern neighbors. 2017 will show between .73 and .84 USD average. As much as we want to see a stronger dollar, I believe we are going to to see a shift in other global currencies against the USD, similar to ours.

CBC has it in a story today.
Canadian dollar could drop to 65 cents US in 2017, Macquarie forecasts
Higher interest rates in the U.S. are a major factor that will drive loonie down, bank says
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/doll...tion-1.3909519

[BigMass]

It's the same old story. The Canadian dollar is not dropping or tanking or failing. What is happening is that the US dollar is ultra strong now. That is the only story here. The Canadian dollar is fairing not better or poorer than any other currency in the world including precious metals (gold, silver, platinum). Stop worrying about the US and take a vacation in Mexico where our dollar is hitting highs, or Australia, where we're doing pretty good against as well! Economically there is no comparison between Canada and the US. The only comparison is geography.