50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

[vengie]

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I'm guessing we see a peak >350 rigs.

Getting closer every day!

[ExtraSlow]

I'm cheering for you. Of course, a shot term peak doesn't do that much for employment. a sustainable long term trend is what's needed for that.

[ExtraSlow]

JWN count this week is 352.

[CompletelyNumb]

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...my guess is peak winter count is 315.

Getting closer. (CAODC, of course)

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca weekly count for Jan 22 is 324 active or 52%

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca weekly count for Jan 29 is 323 or 52%

[ExtraSlow]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...exas-1.4511911

Coles, from nearly 900 rigs in 2014 we are down to 621 now and still falling as top tier rigs head south.

[SKR]

There's a lot of rigs just laying around too. There's an old Saxon rig in Swift Current that's been there for few years now. I guess it belongs to Schlumberger now since Saxon isn't around anymore. They probably don't even know they have it. There's an Ensign rig in Purple Springs that's been there forever, and another one in Coleville that's still painted in Tri-City colors. I wonder what happens to that stuff. It never seems to move, but somebody owns it, and somebody else owns the dirt it's sitting on.

[ExtraSlow]

They'll get cut up eventually. Or they've been sold to someone who has totally unrealistic dreams of getting them running again.
Lots of unrealistic dreamers around, wishing they could recreate the glorious oilpatch of days gone past.

[ExtraSlow]

JWN count today is 354.

[Supa Dexta]

Worker killed at cenovus christina lake - night rig move. Thats not gonna be good.

https://boereport.com/2018/02/07/wor...oilsands-site/

[ExtraSlow]

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Worker killed at cenovus christina lake - night rig move. Thats not gonna be good.

https://boereport.com/2018/02/07/wor...oilsands-site/

Awful news. Regardless of if the light conditions played a factor this doesn't look great for CVE. Many companies will not move rigs at night for safety reasons.

Caodc.ca count for Feb 5 is 306 rigs active.

[CompletelyNumb]

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Worker killed at cenovus christina lake - night rig move. Thats not gonna be good.

https://boereport.com/2018/02/07/wor...oilsands-site/

Total shit show. Buddy (wont say who since media isnt) walked in front of the truck, driver thought he walked behind. Rolled ahead.

They've shut down all the rigs in the area for the investigation. Hopefully someone get's taught a lesson for authorizing a night move.

[ExtraSlow]

These OSE/core hole programs have such pace that they are truly quite dangerous. Much worse than regular drilling. I was working on one of those projects when we had a fatality. Not a rig move that time.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca is revamping thier website and weekly statistics aren't available this week.

JWN count today is 331 active.

[CompletelyNumb]

Things are coming to an end on many projects, i fully expect march to have 40% less active rigs.

[ExtraSlow]

I think the last CAODC count I posted was Jan 22. They have changed the website quite a bit, and I don't like it, but here are the numbers.

Jan 29 - 342
Feb 5 - 338
Feb 12 - 312
Feb 19 - 319
Feb 26 - 306

- - - Updated - - -

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JWN has published their weekly rig count, and as of Friday, they had 325 active and 325 down. Note that they count slightly differently than the CAODC, so their number is always a bit higher. Once CAODC publishes on Monday I will update. Last week CAODC was 252/654 for 39%. I think they'll be 290-ish this week.

The fleet has scrapped a huge number of rigs. I can recall when the fleet was over 800, so 200+ rigs have been cut up. That's probably a good thing. I spent a year working with some of the worst rigs PD had to offer back in the boom times, and they truly aren't competitive.

Wages haven't risen anywhere as far as I know, but certain positions are getting quite high demand, and if you have your class 1 and a clean abstract, you should be able to go to work right away many places.

Hiring has picked up in Calgary head offices too, although interestingly, it appears Production is where the bulk of the postings have been. Very few in the D&C or Geoscience worlds. I think I've seen more engineering jobs posted in the last 6 weeks than in the previous 12 months!

Not quite double meat subs for everyone yet, but I truly feel like we are making good progress here. Remains to be seen how the next two months of OPEC data, Trump presidency, European uncertainty and other geopolitical factors translate into commodity prices and business outlook.

Interesting to look back at the original post in this thread. Total rig fleet reported by CAODC is 622 now, down from 654 in that first post. That number will keep shrinking. I'd say below 600 makes a lot of sense, and maybe closer to 500, no matter what prices do, but those decisions are made month-by-month based on a million individual factors worried over by the dozens of different companies who own the iron.

Last year I was excited by the prospect of 300+ rigs working, this year I'm less thrilled about similar levels, but still optimistic.

[ExtraSlow]

JWN reports 301 rigs active as of yesterday. Note the way JWN does the count is usually higher than CAODC, so this is a leading indicator of a significant drop.

On the pumping services side, Calfrac announced it is moving 30,000 hp to the USA to improve utilization and revenue.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca weekly count for March 5th is 285.

[roll_over]

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JWN reports 301 rigs active as of yesterday. Note the way JWN does the count is usually higher than CAODC, so this is a leading indicator of a significant drop.

On the pumping services side, Calfrac announced it is moving 30,000 hp to the USA to improve utilization and revenue.

Calfrac is still incredibly busy in Canada. They’re trying to build new crews but simply don’t have the man power. Everyone in pumping services is offering big signing bonus’ and poaching people like crazy from other service companies.

We personally brought down dozens of guys from offshore and hired anyone with a pulse just to get bodies.

Well services is the busiest I’ve seen it in years and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.