50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

[CompletelyNumb]

Service has always been busier than drilling. Leaning out crews and equipment over the last 4 years was a good move for most companies. Guys are staying busy now at least (the ones who are left).

[roll_over]

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Service has always been busier than drilling. Leaning out crews and equipment over the last 4 years was a good move for most companies. Guys are staying busy now at least (the ones who are left).

I don’t think anyone is running lean right now besides directional services. I’m looking out of my office window right now at 4 guys just to run a fuel hose, 3 guys taking turns throwing sand and 2 guys just roaming the spread.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca count for March 12 is 246

had a chat today with the Canadian sales manager for a large integrated service company. He's baffled at how much work some of the smaller directional companies got this winter, and also how much they are paying thier sales staff. He's been trying to hire a directional sales person but it sounds like his salary band is 20% below what the little shops are paying and he can't offer perks like they seem to.

He's run the numbers and he's convinced those smaller companies are operating at a loss on every job.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca count for March 19 is 221.

[ExtraSlow]

March 26h is showing as 163 in caodc.ca.

JWN reports 129 on March 28.

[ExtraSlow]

I hate how CAODC publishes their count late, and also always revises it. If anyone cares, most of the last few counts have been revised downwards. I won't bother tracking those.
April 2nd count is 108 rigs. That's 19% utilization on a fleet of 619 rigs. Note that fleet size has dropped another 4 rigs since January. I see no reason the fleet wouldn't continue to shrink one or two rigs per month. We have no need for 600 rigs in Canada anymore.

Have heard of some smaller rigs being shipped to Australia. Suspect that's only an option for very specific equipment. The rest should be cut up.

[ExtraSlow]

CAODC counts:
April 9th is 105 rigs
April 16th is 79 rigs

[ExtraSlow]

Little cbc article about the Ritchie bros auction and how much equipment is heading south.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-...tion-1.4639346

[ExtraSlow]

April 23 - 86
April 30 - 84
May 7 - 76
May 14 - 95
May 21 - 103

[ExtraSlow]

May 28, 126
June 4, 122

[ExtraSlow]

June 11, 140.

[ExtraSlow]

Update, been a busy summer.

June 18 - 176
June 25 - 187
July 2 - 187
July 9 - 216
July 16 - 227
July 23 - 224
July 30 - 238
Aug 6 - 227
Aug 13 - 228
Aug 20 - 224
Aug 27 - 216
Sept 3 - 208

[ExtraSlow]

10/09/2018 224
17/09/2018 181
24/09/2018 173
01/10/2018 214
08/10/2018 186

[ExtraSlow]

Well, it's been nearly two years since I started this thread, and it's fascinating to see the attitude (particularly mine) in January 2017.

Found out the BOE Report shows rig counts graphically, which is really interesting. Here's a 2003 to today rig count graph.


Two things stand out to me:
1) the annual winter peaks used to routinely be over 600 rigs active. That's a huge change from the last four years.
2) Natural gas used to be the vast majority of the activity. Oh those were fun days, in the 2004-2009 years. In a geologic sense, there's far more natural gas in western canada than oil. Particularly if you don't count mining operations.

Anyway, feel free to comment.

edit - added graph legend.

[schurchill39]

I had a meeting with a former client and now friend of mine who is the COO of a junior. He's a very intelligent man so I turn to him for all sorts of career advice and to dumb down big picture ideas. One of the things he showed me was a graph showing the 2016 rig activity was lower than the 30 year low and the trends in 2018 are following end of 2015 pretty closely. He believes we are in for another 2016.

That being said, you have companies like Tourmaline picking up rigs, but lots of other guys are dropping them. Will there be enough of a balance between the guys being aggressive and the guys being conservative to avoid another 2016?

I'd like to think things will at least be a little more stabilized so everyone can stick to their budgets... but I've got a pretty good track record of being wrong.

[90_Shelby]

If the data was available, it would be interesting to see the trend of proppant (tonnes) pumped vs rig count.

[ExtraSlow]

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If the data was available, it would be interesting to see the trend of proppant (tonnes) pumped vs rig count.

I know the service companies have ways of estimating that, but I don't know of anywhere that data is available publicly. Tons per well is up huge since the 2000's, partly because a lot of those gas wells were vertical.

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My estimate for q1 2019 is that it will be the lowest q1 on record. The service industry guys I have talked to expect that. Full year 2019 will depend on how fast line 3 gets into service, and production curtailment gets dropped.

[HiTempguy1]

Jeez, ExtraSlow taking a real Christmas vacation, what are we supposed to do, find out rig count news for ourselves??

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-canada

[ExtraSlow]

I like the shot of PD 154 in that article. Those slant super singles are cool rigs.


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My estimate for q1 2019 is that it will be the lowest q1 on record. The service industry guys I have talked to expect that. Full year 2019 will depend on how fast line 3 gets into service, and production curtailment gets dropped.

looks like my estimate was accurate.

[phreezee]

Looks like we're all fucked. From services, to EPCM, to upstream. Thanks Trudeau.