50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

[ExtraSlow]

@vengie and the rest of the folks guessing canadian rig counts. Thought this chart might be more interesting than the raw data.

[vengie]

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@vengie and the rest of the folks guessing canadian rig counts. Thought this chart might be more interesting than the raw data.

This is pretty neat.

Where is this chart from?

[ExtraSlow]

BOE report. it's the cleanest and most user friendly Canadian rig count tool that I've found.
https://boereport.com/caodc-rig-count/

[ExtraSlow]

Actually, really interesting if you want to think about fleet size, scrapping and exporting iron etc.

Fleet in 2014 was 807 rigs. Now in 2020 it's about half of that.

I still maintain my position that Canada doesn't need more than 300 rigs total.

[ExtraSlow]

after the Christmas shutdown, we are at 117 rigs here in Canada this week.


Interesting that the USA doesn't really shut many rigs down for Christmas. Or for anything. Man that's nice that projects can just keep rolling.

[SKR]

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Interesting that the USA doesn't really shut many rigs down for Christmas. Or for anything. Man that's nice that projects can just keep rolling.

That would be a nightmare. The only thing that kept me going all year was knowing that eventually breakup was coming.

[ExtraSlow]

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That would be a nightmare. The only thing that kept me going all year was knowing that eventually breakup was coming.

so that's what stopped you going crazy? Not sure it worked.

[lasimmon]

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That would be a nightmare. The only thing that kept me going all year was knowing that eventually breakup was coming.

10 days and christmas and breakup basically are the only reason I can keep doing this.

[SKR]

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so that's what stopped you going crazy? Not sure it worked.

I very fuckin nearly got tossed out of truck driving school this morning. I don't think I have what it takes to be a piece of society.

[schurchill39]

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I very fuckin nearly got tossed out of truck driving school this morning. I don't think I have what it takes to be a piece of society.

To get tossed out of a truck driving school in the hat is quite the feat! You obviously just didn't try hard enough. Source: got my class 1 in the Hat way back when.

[ExtraSlow]

171 rigs in Canada in what should be the peak of the winter drilling season.

[Darkane]

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171 rigs in Canada in what should be the peak of the winter drilling season.

Canada’s 2/3 and the world 1/2.

Oil is doing great lately.

[ExtraSlow]

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Oil is doing great lately.

What's weird is that the price increases are all in spot or short dated contracts. Long term contract price hasn't been going up.

[ExtraSlow]

This dude has tried to calculate the number of stages being fractured vs the number being "created" through drilling. His methods are a little opaque, but interesting ideas anyway. Shows around 2000 more stages being fractured than drilled per week in the USA.
https://www.matthewacrump.com/stages @killramos you should do this for Canada. LinkedIn would love it.

[killramos]

Sounds like something a real engineer would do

[ExtraSlow]

you are the realest engineer I know.

[schurchill39]

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This dude has tried to calculate the number of stages being fractured vs the number being "created" through drilling. His methods are a little opaque, but interesting ideas anyway. Shows around 2000 more stages being fractured than drilled per week in the USA.
https://www.matthewacrump.com/stages @killramos you should do this for Canada. LinkedIn would love it.

With everything being confidential after its complete I am not sure how you would even figure that out for Canada? You could figure out completed stage count probably from chemical disclosures via frac focus but that could be delayed by over a month. I'm not as familiar with drilling reporting so I don't know how you'd know how many stages are drilled without some sort of assumption about stage spacing and lateral lengths?

[killramos]

Pretty tough to do anything with week/week granularity in cAnada without more work than I would ever be willing to do. Someone who does more data transform work than me could probably accomplish it using start dates and end dates interpolating in between.

Data lag is real, but could probably be estimated based on historical relative to rig count without being terribly wrong and then corrected once real data is available. Not sure if frac spread data is available so you would have to make some assumptions.

I don’t see why it couldn’t be done with Canadian public data, should all be readily available.

Casing logs should give you a pretty good idea of stage count in the hole, whether they get completed is anyone’s guess but an assumption would get you close.

[ExtraSlow]

you'd need to make a lot of assumptions. But you'd be directionally accurate anyway, particularly if you had a consistent methodology.

[killramos]

As long as you go back to overwrite your assumed once real data is available and use that to steer future data I don’t see how in aggregate you would deviate much from reality.

It’s just a lot of work to setup.