50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

[ExtraSlow]

I used to work at the kind of company that would love to have their employees spend a bunch of time on this kind of analysis. Those were the good times.

[ExtraSlow]

I like to talk about USA rig counts sometimes. Here's drilling rigs and frac spreads. Seems to be a slight diverging of trends recently.

[killramos]

TIL someone actually uses those chart templates.

Huh

[schurchill39]

Where do you get frac crew count? Do we have something similar for Canada because it would seem as if the number of frac crews a company has changes depending on which sales guy or engineer you talk to you.

[ExtraSlow]

I don't know a good source for that info for canada. For USA, primary vision is the only free public source I know of. And I get thier YouTube videos, so I keep liking for something else.

[MOB68]

I was looking at the rig counts on the CAOEC dashboard and noted that we are back to surpassing the numbers for the same time period in 2019.
Nov 2021
AB:121
BC: 12
Sk: 36
Util: 153/476

Nov 2019
AB:104
BC: 6
Sk: 31
Util. 132/523

I'm curious if anyone has an opinions as to whether we can draw any conclusions by comparing present rig count numbers to somewhat older historical data (maybe pre 2017/18?) based on advances in technologies like longer wells, more laterals, and just overall better efficiencies in drilling technology and equipment? One contact in the pipeline services industry also mentioned seeing a LOT of activity from "junior companies" which surprised me given the climate for raising capital and overall boom-bust sentiments in the industry.
Thoughts?

[CompletelyNumb]

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I'm curious if anyone has an opinions as to whether we can draw any conclusions by comparing present rig count numbers to somewhat older historical data (maybe pre 2017/18?) based on advances in technologies like longer wells, more laterals, and just overall better efficiencies in drilling technology and equipment?

Drilling specifically, all of the above when possible. Multi-lateral wells. Faster drill times. Less manpower on locations to support activities, and for less days as records are set every year.

While the numbers are greater, the number of people working and the number of hours they work are both decreasing.

[MOB68]

Thanks, yeah that makes sense. It may have been mentioned in an earlier post but then total meters of wells drilled and under completion would likely be a better metric for judging overall industry activity. Looking specifically at impact on sales for casings, cement, stimulation services, etc.

[ExtraSlow]

Field was super busy for Q1, but drilling rig fleet keeps dropping. I was talking about a Canadian fleet size4 of 654 in Jan 2017. I remember when it wsa over 800. CAOEC (formerly CAODC) flee total is 458 no in March 2022.
https://boereport.com/caodc-rig-count/

Lot of field jobs going unfilled these days. Those of you who are into field work, this could be a good year to get back into that.

[vengie]

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Lot of field jobs going unfilled these days. Those of you who are into field work, this could be a good year to get back into that.

Does that mean my hands get dirty?

[SJW]

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Does that mean my hands get dirty?

Yes. Very. Also, put some meat on yer bones, pussy.

[ExtraSlow]

I heard that Vengie was going to hire a bunch of beyonders. Could just me a rumor, started by me . . .

[vengie]

Y'all have any skillz?

- - - Updated - - -

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Yes. Very. Also, put some meat on yer bones, pussy.

Pass

[ExtraSlow]

Retro-bump, because this topic has come up in my coffee meeting recently.

Here's a chart of Drilling rig count since 2018. You can see the rig fleet still continues to shrink. From 556 to 427 in that time.


But, I don't think that's a bad thing at all. Getting rig of old iron, underperforming or under-spec rigs, is a net positive for the industry. Exporting some, cutting some up for scrap, all good stuff.

Actual activity has been pretty strong this year. Not quite as strong as last year, but hovering around 200, which honestly to me feels "about right". Last Jan, peak was 252 I think. Any guesses about a peak this year? I think slightly less than that, maybe 240?

Once LNG Canada is operational and exporting gas, I think that's good for another 10 or so rigs on the gas side. May put a floor on gas price too, even if it doesn't raise the ceiling that much.

[msommers]

Things must be really booming. I'm having Clients from over 10 years ago asking me if I'll go drill holes for them, dangling that green, green carrot.

[CompletelyNumb]

Yeah, the calls are going out. Short term boom for the winter. Still doesn't make up for the overall lackluster performance since 2014. I guess money talks for some.

[ExtraSlow]

Any more guesses about winter peak? Was 206 for Jan 4th. My previous guess was 240.

[Proyecto2000]

209 drilling and 22 moving today so I ill be optimistic and say that we can add another 16 to peak at 247 by the end of January.

Need more Clearwater / multi lateral rigs to come in

[ExtraSlow]

222 on BOE report as of Jan 9.

[ExtraSlow]

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Field was super busy for Q1, but drilling rig fleet keeps dropping. I was talking about a Canadian fleet size4 of 654 in Jan 2017. I remember when it wsa over 800. CAOEC (formerly CAODC) flee total is 458 no in March 2022.
https://boereport.com/caodc-rig-count/

Quoting from March 2022. Looking at December, seems current fleet total is ~439. That's only ~20 less than 2 years ago. Fleet size may be stabilizing?