50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

[ExtraSlow]

Did caodc.ca go out of business? Still have Sept 11 as the most recent public update.
Jwn says the count was 211 yesterday.

Oil price has a nice trajectory and just as important gas prices has been edging up everywhere but AECO due to takeaway capacity constraints. Fuck we need more pipelines for both products.

[ExtraSlow]

Sept 18th count 193
Sept 25 is currently 180 although that always seems to get revised upwards.
Be nice if we could break solidly above 200, like 220+. I'd feel better about that trajectory.

[ExtraSlow]

October 2: 179
October 10: 176

[lasimmon]

Too wet to fire up me thinks.

[ExtraSlow]

I don't understand how CAODC manages to publish these counts really late every week and STILL somehow has to revise them even two weeks later.
Revised count for October 2 is 182, revised count for October 10th is 190.
Current count for October 16 is 186. If history is a guide that will be revised a little upwards sometime in the next fortnight.

So we are stagnant in the "just under 200" count and have been for months. Is it too early to start making bets on the winter high rig count? Anyone know how many delineation/corehole rigs the SAGD majors are looking at this year? I'm out of that loop now.

[adamc]

Doesn't Baker publish rig numbers also? I remember their rig finder tool was pretty accurate back in the day.

[SKR]

My rig count has been 0 for the last 7 weeks. That's easy to count.

[90_Shelby]

Drilling Expected To Be Flat Over Next Year

BY MONTE STEWART – OCT. 17, 2017 – VIEW ISSUE

Vancouver — Oil and gas drilling activity is expected to remain flat over the next year, says the president of the Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC).
“At this point in time, we’re not seeing any strong indicators of more [activity] than what we’re experiencing right now,” Mark Salkeld said in an interview Monday after speaking to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.
PSAC is preparing to release its annual forecast around the end of this month. The organization, which represents 170 oilfield services companies and approximately 35,000 of their employees, revised its 2017 forecast upwards twice.
Salkeld indicated the forecasted activity level will be realized. But with oil prices languishing around $50 per bbl, “there is nothing to indicate a boom.”
“We’re on our way to having 6,000-some-odd wells in Western Canada drilled this year,” he said. “We’re busy. Right now, there’s 50 per cent more wells working this year than there was last year, so we are more active.”
Salkeld stressed that PSAC is emphasizing such metrics as days on the well and metres drilled rather than well counts, because service firms’ productivity is “just skyrocketing” due to innovation and revised market conditions.
“We’re drilling less wells,” said Salkeld. “It’s not so much the number of holes in the ground or rigs working, because the wells we’re drilling are these longer and lateral sections — long horizontal well bores with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing — so we’re giving our customers the equivalent production of eight wells on a one-well-bore sort of thing. So there’s a lot more to [the current situation], and we may never get back to 10,000 or 12,000 wells a year, but we’ll get to 8,000.”
But it remains to be seen whether PSAC members, who turned down work from producers in the first quarter of 2017 due to employee shortages, will have enough skilled workers now and in the future. Although hiring levels have increased, said Salkeld, service firms are still finding it difficult to fill jobs because experienced workers who left — mainly due to layoffs — have lost trust in the energy sector’s long-term employment prospects.
Consequently, PSAC has launched a new service, PSAC Connect, to help companies recruit and retain employees while also informing the sector about employment trends.
“We’ve been working all spring, summer and fall to hire,” said Salkeld.
During a panel discussion with other industry leaders, Salkeld, who entered the energy sector as a heavy-duty mechanic, noted the increasing use of robotics, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies will also pose a greater need for workers with different skills.
“When I started on the rigs, if I had a hard hat and a heartbeat, I was hired,” said Salkeld. “But now, [the industry] is beyond that. … You need talent, you need skill, so it’s not just [a matter of] hiring anybody off the street that’s looking for work.”
Meanwhile, Salkeld said Energy East’s cancellation, by continuing the Canadian sector’s reliance on oil exports to the U.S., will have a long-term, although not immediate, effect on future generations of PSAC members — and all Canadians.
“The last thing we want is to be an importer of product because we can’t get our own out of the ground and to other customers,” said Salkeld, alluding to the fact that eastern Canadian markets import oil to meet current demand.
“I think it’s a $48-million-a-day gift we’re giving to the U.S., [which] is what they’re getting from our discounted oil and gas out of Canada,” he said. “That’s not a way to do business. We need other customers to help balance that.”
Canada, he added, also needs a strategic energy development plan because the industry is in “a real mess” when it comes to securing investment and getting projects approved.
As Energy East’s cancellation created a sombre tone, Salkeld and other panelists touted the fact that Canada with its strict regulatory regime and carbon pricing structure, is a more responsible producer than countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Nigeria, from which it now must import oil.
“Canada will never [be] an energy superpower,” said Salkeld. “We’re not going to be a Russia or a United States, but we could be a good player in getting our product offshore, because if you want to lower [greenhouse-gas emissions], it’s [about] getting our product offshore into countries like India and China that would love to have it. India and China are increasing demand for [it]. To not be that responsible player on the global stage with the best oil and gas in the world is just … stupid. It’s just very frustrating.”
Wally Kozak, Calfrac Well Services Ltd.’s director of industry and government relations, said Canada squandered its chance to build an alternative to Keystone XL while its American leg’s approval was delayed under the former U.S. government.
“Delays in the National Energy Board [approval] process led us to grasping defeat from the jaws of victory,” he said.
Salkeld said Keystone’s recent approval helps PSAC members; however, any benefits will be offset by Energy East’s cancellation.
“We’re giving [the U.S.] raw product, they’re taking it to the Gulf [of Mexico], they’re refining it and they’re actually selling the finished product back to us for more money,” he said during the interview. “It’s ridiculous. We should be doing better. We should be an independent producer with our own customers. One main customer is now our competitor, and we need to develop our customer base, and that’s [by getting] pipelines to tidewater.”
To achieve that goal, said Dick Brown, president and CEO of LNG-distribution firm Ferus, the Canadian energy sector must show that it deploys the world’s safest, cleanest and most socially responsible practices.
“We need to get that message out, not just to the world but, first and foremost, to us as Canadians, who actually hold the Crown resources,” said Brown.
But with people “less divorced” from energy sources than they were in the past, the industry must tell its story in a different manner, said Calfrac’s Kozak.
“The world has changed, and we are changing behind it, unfortunately, in the way we communicate as an industry,” he said.

[ExtraSlow]

Oct 23 was 197
Oct 30 was 186.

[Darkane]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Oct 23 was 197
Oct 30 was 186.

That’s odd. I’m expecting more for nov, especially with our soft dollar pushing the oil to $70.

[CompletelyNumb]

Rig counts always goes down around now. Nothing too crazy.

[ExtraSlow]

You have to factor in the 4-12 bucks a barrel incremental cost that oil by rail costs vs pipelines.

Also western Canada right count is heavily affected by the price of methane, which is nearly zero and has been negative at times this year.

Local prices for both natural gas and oil are captive to lack of takeaway capacity and will be for another 18 months minimum.

KXL and TMX will help for oil, but no major gas pipes or expansions planned. The tiny woodfibre LNG isn't going to move the needle.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca count for November 6 is 190

[ExtraSlow]

JWN reports 228 for their friday count on November 10th. The way they track means they are always higher than CAODC, but they do say it's a jump of 22 from the prior week.
CAODC hasn't released the November 13th count yet.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca count for November 13 is 212, echoing the 22 rig increase JWN showed.

Anyone have bets on Q1 peak?

[CompletelyNumb]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Caodc.ca count for November 13 is 212, echoing the 22 rig increase JWN showed.

Anyone have bets on Q1 peak?

Based on my own internal information on "expected jobs" for some big directional companies, my guess is peak winter count is 315.

[vengie]

I'm guessing we see a peak >350 rigs.

[lasimmon]

Savanna is guessing 10 more then they are currently running, so 30 total I think?

[ExtraSlow]

JWN count today is 228. Same as last week.

[ExtraSlow]

Caodc.ca count for November 20 is 201.