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Thread: 50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

  1. #41
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    I might not be busy these days, but I'm always happy to hear others are! Earn those pennies, save some of them, and bide your time. Things are getting better every day.
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    JWN reports 321 active rigs out of a fleet of 640 today.
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    CAODC count this week - For February 27th is 284/641
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    CAODC count this week is 270/644.

    Interesting that the fleet grew by three. Would like to hear if thosee are new builds, rigs imported from elsewhere, or what.
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    Maybe they were rigs down due to weather? All mine had a week off because they couldn't spread any mud, but now that it's froze they're all running again. (Edit: I'm dumb and thought you meant the active rig count grew, not the total.)

    I hate this time of year. Every hole you do is the last one, and then you end up doing 5 more. I just want to go home and go to bed for a week and not think about dumb rigs.
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    JWN reports 289 active today compared to 316 last week. I think that's pretty decent.

    Sounds like most of the corehole/delineation/OSE projects are pretty much wrapped up, or they will be in the next week or so.

    Interested to see what we bottom out at through breakup and what the timing of the post-breakup increase is. Would love it if folks were getting back to work in June or even late May. Always annoys me when "summer projects" get started mid-August.
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    Monday's CAODC count was 233.
    Friday's JWN count was 229.

    Anyone have guessed for the lowest we'll see through Q2? I'm thinking 95.
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    Mondays' CAODC count was 170.

    I'm probably the only person who cares about this, but I figure it's fun to have it all in one place, so I'll probably keep updating it.
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    Maybe not the most relevant to rig counts, but I'm reading that the price of oil is dropping as US inventories get bigger.

    In light of OPEC deciding to cut production (presumably to prop oil prices up?), is this basically just the US being assholes?

    For the record, I don't know enough a lot about the industry, so explain this to me as though I am an idiot (because I am).
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    Originally posted by sexualbanana
    Maybe not the most relevant to rig counts, but I'm reading that the price of oil is dropping as US inventories get bigger.

    In light of OPEC deciding to cut production (presumably to prop oil prices up?), is this basically just the US being assholes?

    For the record, I don't know enough a lot about the industry, so explain this to me as though I am an idiot (because I am).
    OPEC is a group, they control production levels, can fix prices, etc... Most of OPEC oil is cheap/easy to produce/extract.

    Canada/US is free market, free enterprise. They can't even think of doing that as it violates anti-monopoly laws. US/Canada oil is difficult and expensive to produce/extract.

    When this all started, OPEC over-produced to gain market share, and kill some US (shale) oil since it had higher costs. They thought low prices for some time would push them out of business.

    Free market, and free enterprise turned in to the will to live. New efficiencies were created and fat was trimmed.

    The ultimate result that OPEC hoped for never came to fruition and now we are stuck in a market of extremely low prices with inventories building in North America. And it's super crappy for Canada as our costs are higher (Oil sands is pricey as hell).


    Edit/Addition:

    The above is the worldwide problem with oil right now. Locally in Canada we have two problems hitting our industry:

    1) The Above

    2) Provincial/Federal governments (taxation, regulation)
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    In regards to rig counts, it is perfectly normal for the count to drop at this time of year as for the most part we are a seasonal drilling country. Yes, gains have been made to flatten the curve with more rigs drilling through break up and in the summer. But there is still a bump in the count in Jan/Feb. I would expect the count to drop further as break up continues before increasing to the level for the summer that will stay fairly flat.

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    Oil and Free Markets.

    And the oversupply is 100% American made. They just like to blame everyone else.

    Percentage change since the first quarter of 2010 in crude-oil production

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    CAODC count this week is 148 this week. Guesses for breakup low?
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    The announcement yesterday of the sale of ConocoPhillips in Canada is not good news. Combine this with the Shell sale and pull out of Progress Energy and it appears foreign capital is leaving the country. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apache Canada sell next.

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    Originally posted by soloracer
    The announcement yesterday of the sale of ConocoPhillips in Canada is not good news. Combine this with the Shell sale and pull out of Progress Energy and it appears foreign capital is leaving the country. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apache Canada sell next.
    Seems like great news. Foreign capital stays foreign, they underpay taxes, and take our resources, and their money out.

    I would much prefer fairly taxed local ownership.

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    I prefer local ownership as well.
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    The part you are both missing is what this says about the general well being of our industry and the capital going into it. If our jurisdiction was hot and healthy everyone would be clamoring to get in and spend their money. That in turn would spark growth and demand for services. Instead, we have companies wanting to get out of here. Do you ever think about why that is? The worst thing that can happen to the service industry here is if a massive consolidation occurs at the operator level and not at the service level. (ie: what was 100 clients for 40 service co's becomes 75 clients for 40 service co's). The end result is further job losses and tough times for our industry.

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    More bad news from Cramer.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/30/crame...e-to-stay.html

    And Exxon supports a Carbon tax to fight Climate change.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...climate-change

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    Originally posted by soloracer
    The part you are both missing is what this says about the general well being of our industry and the capital going into it. If our jurisdiction was hot and healthy everyone would be clamoring to get in and spend their money. That in turn would spark growth and demand for services. Instead, we have companies wanting to get out of here. Do you ever think about why that is? The worst thing that can happen to the service industry here is if a massive consolidation occurs at the operator level and not at the service level. (ie: what was 100 clients for 40 service co's becomes 75 clients for 40 service co's). The end result is further job losses and tough times for our industry.
    I would disagree with foreign companies pulling out. On the surface it might seem like it BUT take a look at all the transactions that have happened lately.

    CNRL/Devon - Devon held onto Jackfish
    CNRL/Shell - Shell is hanging on to the Scotford upgrader
    Cenovus/Conoco - Conoco is hanging onto Surmont

    There's foreign money and life still breathing in the oil sands, I think this is just a way for some of these companies to reduce some exposure but not pull out. Makes getting back in easier.

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    JWN reports 151 rigs active today.



    I don't disagree that it's easy to see a downside when savvy multinational companies choose to exit our local market. However, I'm an optimist at heart, so I choose to focus on the upside of having local ownership who is more likely to allocate capital towards those assets, and who also has head office employment here.

    For every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller. Clearly the market isn't impressed with Cenovus' choice, but I think it'll serve them well in the longer term.
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