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Thread: 50% of the Canadian Rig fleet active! January 2017 - Fuck Yeah

  1. #201
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    Will be interesting to see if we even get past 120 rigs for January. As far as I know nobody has a large core hole program this year. Will know in two weeks.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HiTempguy1 View Post
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    Jeez, ExtraSlow taking a real Christmas vacation, what are we supposed to do, find out rig count news for ourselves??
    I'm done with the CAODC counts. I think I'll use the BOE report , which gets weekly counts from Baker Hughes.
    1 year graph. No chance we see as strong of a Q1 as last year. Count was 76 on January 4th

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    So long winter season. Hopefully the fall is better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Will be interesting to see if we even get past 120 rigs for January. As far as I know nobody has a large core hole program this year. Will know in two weeks.
    Well, I was too pessimistic. Counts have been ~200 for two weeks. It's not "good" by any stretch, but better than I thought.
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    It's the next boom!
    I can eat more hot wings than you.

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    Oil has been selling for a strong price all month.

    40+USD for WCS is perfect. If it remained like this we’re in excellent shape.

    Just don’t expect any refineries to be built though.

    Perfect scenario would be 75WTI, 50WCS, $0.75 CDN —> USD. That’s not unreasonable and we could still find profit in refining on home soil which I’m a fan of. OR, sell and still make cash.
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

    -H.P. Lovecraft

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkane View Post
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    Oil has been selling for a strong price all month.

    40+USD for WCS is perfect. If it remained like this we’re in excellent shape.

    Just don’t expect any refineries to be built though.

    Perfect scenario would be 75WTI, 50WCS, $0.75 CDN —> USD. That’s not unreasonable and we could still find profit in refining on home soil which I’m a fan of. OR, sell and still make cash.
    What I don't get is why everyone is pumping the brakes so hard with these stable oil prices.
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    Meh, they all look like Jackie Chan to me
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    Quote Originally Posted by schurchill39 View Post
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    What I don't get is why everyone is pumping the brakes so hard with these stable oil prices.
    Local prices are higher because we are producing less. Why spend money to produce more if it has no way to get to market?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Local prices are higher because we are producing less. Why spend money to produce more if it has no way to get to market?
    This. Without a pipeline don't expect any investment dollars to come flowing back in.

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    The exodus of quality equipment continues. CAODC says the rig fleet is now only 564 down from 654 when I started this thread in January 2017. At the beginning, quite a few old rig were scrapped. Now it's our best rigs going south of the border.
    https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/20...-better-rates/
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 03-04-2019 at 08:21 AM.
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  11. #211
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    Well boys, I have to admit actual counts from Q1 are a lot higher than I predicted. Not "good", but much better than I thought.
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    January ended up being pretty good all things considered. I've heard of a number of projects closing out for end of February, so it'll be interesting to see how the charts look coming into March.
    I can eat more hot wings than you.

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    Yeah, here's the boe report rig count graph :
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    And a cbc news discussion of consolidation in the rig contractor space. Doesn't say much, but here it is.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...2014-1.5106064

    Total fleet is now down to 545, from 654 in Jan 2017.
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    Count is one thing but meters drilled is down 30% in Q1

    Producers rig released 1,548 wells across Canada in the first quarter of 2019, excluding experimental holes, a decrease of 30 per cent from 2,225 wells drilled in Q1 2018.
    Total metres drilled across the country declined to 4.53 million metres (excluding experimental wells) in the January-March period, down 29 per cent from 6.34 million metres drilled the previous year.
    In March, drillers rig released 429 wells, down 23 per cent from 556 in March 2018. Total meterage last month declined to 1.3 million metres from 1.67 million metres the prior year.
    Provincial stats, excluding experimental wells
    Producers working in Alberta rig released 759 wells during the first three months of 2019 compared to 1,162 a year ago (down 35 per cent). Operators drilled 2.58 million metres in the province compared to 3.69 million metres in the year-prior quarter (a decrease of 30 per cent).
    Saskatchewan’s three-month rig release tally declined 27 per cent to 612 wells from 844 in last year’s first quarter. Metres drilled declined to 1.32 million metres from 1.83 million metres last year (off 29 per cent).
    In British Columbia, rig releases for the quarter decreased to 102 from 135 a year earlier (down 24 per cent), and metres drilled decreased 25 per cent to 463,463 from 620,778 metres in January-March 2018.
    Operators in Manitoba drilled 73 wells in the quarter versus 81 wells a year ago (down 10 per cent), while metres drilled rose slightly to 155,826 from 155,605 last year.
    Operators in Western and Northern Canada rig released 4.19 million metres of development hole in the first quarter of 2019, down 30 per cent from 5.97 million metres a year ago.
    There were 1,461 development wells rig released in the first three months of the year, down from 2,142 wells a year ago. The average depth/length of a development well was 2,865 metres compared to 2,788 metres in the first quarter of 2018.
    Operators rig released 86 exploratory holes in the first quarter compared to 99 a year ago, while 334,398 metres of exploratory hole were drilled in Western and Northern Canada, down from 362,980 metres in Q1 2018.
    The average depth/length of development and exploratory wells rig released in Western and Northern Canada during the first quarter rose to a record 2,922 metres, up from 2,827 metres in the first three months of last year.
    Rig release counts, including experimental wells
    Operators drilled 2,171 wells to the end of March, including experimental wells, a decrease of 20 per cent from 2,712 wells rig released in the year-prior period.
    In March, producers drilled 579 wells, including experimental holes, down 18 per cent from 708 a year ago.
    Of the wells rig released in the first quarter in Alberta, 1,053 were licensed to drill for oil or bitumen, down from last year’s 1,202 wells.
    By contrast, there were 235 gas and CBM wells rig released in Alberta during the first quarter, down from 275 in Q1 2018.
    In Saskatchewan, 494 of the wells drilled were licensed to search for oil (compared to 767 last year), while none of the wells targeted natural gas (down from one last year).
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  15. #215
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    Rig scrappage/decommissioning in the news:
    https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/20...a-delist-rigs/

    When I started this thread in January 2017, rig count was 253 out of a Canadian fleet of 654.

    Current count is 263 out of 515 fleet.

    You can look back at rig counts here:
    https://boereport.com/canada-rig-count/

    Active rigs in Canada were over 700 in January of 2012, I think the total fleet back then was ~850 or so.
    Last edited by ExtraSlow; 01-16-2020 at 01:07 PM.
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  16. #216
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    I actually had lunch with the guy who started Trinidad Drilling last week. Ended up being 15 minutes of work at 2.5 hours of bullshitting. Trying to take what he said as a grain of salt but his perspective on regulations and what ensign did to him was fascinating. Not a side of the world I typically see.

    Interesting data ES based on that. Interesting it hasn't moved a lot.
    Cos...

  17. #217
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    Weekly BH rig count update:
    https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count
    North America has dropped 97 rigs this week. Not nearly enough. Texas only dropped 11. They will take a couple of weeks to really go down. I'm betting total onshore USA less than 550 by April 24th update.
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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  18. #218
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    Thanks for the update
    "The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents... some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new Dark Age."

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Weekly BH rig count update:
    https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count
    North America has dropped 97 rigs this week. Not nearly enough. Texas only dropped 11. They will take a couple of weeks to really go down. I'm betting total onshore USA less than 550 by April 24th update.
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    Curuous what % of those drills are for expiry purposes though, I'm guessing with all the lease acquisitions a lot of those are forced to be drilled.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboom View Post
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    Curuous what % of those drills are for expiry purposes though, I'm guessing with all the lease acquisitions a lot of those are forced to be drilled.
    Really can't unpack that from this data. But much less than 50%. Maybe less than 20% I'd guess. Expiries in the US aren't a big deal right now because companies have been drilling hard for years.
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