Has your office/company laid people off or is it picking up? PART 7 (Redesigned Poll)

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I wonder if this is it for the oil boom times?

I was at a private event with the CEO of ATB Financial last week, and his speculation is that we'll never see oil >$70 again (barring anything huge, like Trump nuking someone)

[flipstah]

Those days are over.

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I wonder if this is it for the oil boom times?

There is at most one last hurrah left. And that will only happen if India (and other asian/african countries) experience a similar rapid transformation that China has and electrical equipment hasn't completed its takeover. Or if something occurs that massively curtails current global supply (say a 4-5 million/barrel sudden dropoff)

https://country-facts.findthedata.co...China-vs-India

The writing is on the walls. I know you hate Musk and Tesla, but if the Model 3 comes in at $35k usd and works, it is quite game changing. 7c/kwh in Alberta, means $3.5 for 320kms of driving.

I HATE electric cars, but even for myself I can't justify NOT buying one if that is the reality.

[bjstare]

Another big thing is the efficient large scale storage of electricity. Once we figure out how to do this, it eliminates the demand to backfill at peak times, and makes all the renewable electricity sources viable.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I wonder if this is it for the oil boom times?

Doubt it. Oil is getting slammed today. I suspect we see 30s before we see 50s again.

[Hallowed_point]

It seems that everyone and their dog is applying at my work. But we are not hiring as we didn't do any cuts. I have to laugh at how lazy some applicants are. Me "you need to fax/email/visit this office" random dude: "can you send them this" Me: No

[HiTempguy1]

Originally posted by cjblair
Another big thing is the efficient large scale storage of electricity

I'm of the opinion, from a consumer perspective, that individual storage systems are the best. And again, look what Tesla is doing. It just makes sense IMO.

Arguably in most situations, if done efficiently "distributed" systems are more desirable (no different than cloud computing or storage really). So in this case, every new building requires an electrical storage unit like Tesla. The infrastructure for the most part is already there. Just plop it in and go.

Yes, $8k per new building is a bit of a stretch... but its starting to look pretty reasonable. By the time I build my next house/acreage, I'm sure it will be completely feasible to have 1k-2k of solar and a powerwall for about $10k.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by HiTempguy1
The writing is on the walls. I know you hate Musk and Tesla, but if the Model 3 comes in at $35k usd and works, it is quite game changing. 7c/kwh in Alberta, means $3.5 for 320kms of driving.

You can't ignore the simplicity of electric cars. Even if I don't think Tesla is worth what they asked for, it did spawn a lot of compelling alternatives like the new e-Golf.

Eventually, economy of scale will tip in favor of EVs and that will be the norm.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Musk aside, I am not blind to the fact that world demand for oil has been dropping while there are so a huge number of proven reserves, along with new tech. that can reach previous unreachable ones.

I think the era of heavy investment into huge mega projects is probably coming to an end unless some sort of a war breaks out.

I don't think gasoline cars are going to suddenly be removed from the market by something as shitty as the model 3 alone. However the big car makers are getting on board, and with government incentives and dropping costs for batteries, it is making it a more viable option for city commuters. I see continued dropping demand for fuel in the future, which makes me think that the AB oil boom days are coming to an end.

War or not, we won't see another mega project in Alberta. No board of directors is willing to saddle that much risk (i.e. the huge captial spend that's required) anymore. Therefore, my view is the future of the EPC/Construction industry (as it pertains to oilsands) here is in debottlenecking/maintenance/turnaround work. We're not going to see another Fort Hills (for e.g.) that comes up from scratch.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Musk aside, I am not blind to the fact that world demand for oil has been dropping

Say what?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Xtrema]

SP, that's ok, Trump will fix all that now EPA is neutered and CAFE standard is eased.

No amount of EV will offset China's growth still.

And US will be less of a economic indicator going forward.

[flipstah]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I see your graph, and raise you another graph



Seriously though, it is common knowledge that oil demand is dropping in north America... and it will be soon in China as they make a massive push to reduce emissions there. More for smog than for climate change, but still.

So what you're saying is... We need a crisis.

[tonytiger55]

I don't think electric cars will be taking off as big as people think. If it is, there is going to have to be a change in habits to how we go about everyday things.

Gasoline is pretty dense energy. Electricity is even more when used to power vehicles. I can't remember by how much but CBC radio did a good program about this a while back. Electric/battery is better energy source as it is more denser then petroleum.
But gasoline is very flexible as a energy source.

The issue is infrastructure and charging of vehicles. Say your running low on power, what are you going to do? I meaning driving to banif is all nice where they might be charging stations. But what about the city or driving to superstore to grab a pint of milk?

What about police vehicles and ambulances? Supposing you need to dial 911. How do ambulances and Police services adapt to this?

Or if your a plumber, mover or a busy sales rep with a company car/truck. Do you have time to be sitting while your vehicle charges? What if you go offsite in the middle of the boonies?

Gasoline will be around for a while, not because of cost, but because of gasoline being flexible energy source.
I do see hybrid vehicles being more common though.

Oil will still be around for a while though. Im mean its great Musk is doing this, but when he builds the new car, how are the materials transported/shipped to the factory? Think of the vehicles/machines used for mining. Then the transportation ships....What fuel do they run on I wonder? When you plug your vehicle in, where does the energy for the power station come from? What are plastics and other components made from?

Solar energy is great. But take a live sporting event, in the UK around half time for a soccer match power stations need to generate more electricity as people put the kettle on to make a cup of tea (im not making this up). if you have wind turbines or solar power what are you going to do? You can't 'make' more wind. Its not as if you can pray to the lord above and ask him to let rip a holy windy fart so you can throw in a tea bag and make thy brew eh?

There was a argument a few years back in London UK that the manufacturing of the Prius did more damage (materials, assembly, shipping etc) to the environment.
I guess it was more of a thing to make people 'feel good' about them doing something green.

[msommers]

Originally posted by flipstah


So what you're saying is... We need a crisis.

An imminent crisis

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by tonytiger55
There was a argument a few years back in London UK that the manufacturing of the Prius did more damage (materials, assembly, shipping etc) to the environment.
I guess it was more of a thing to make people 'feel good' about them doing something green.

EV is great because of is simplicity. It took almost a century for ICE to get to sub 3s 0-60 and EV did it in less than a decade.

There are less parts but more battery and battery recycling will be a major issue soon but there are tons of business and even Tesla is jumping on that issue.

Range anxiety is still real. And cold climate regions will be the last adopter since warming with waste ICE heat is still more efficient than electrical heat.

80-90% of trips by car owners can be covered by EV. And your energy source is at home in a warm garage, not freezing your ass for 5-10mins at a station.

You get 15kwh off 120V for 10hrs. Double that off 240V. Most EV can do 5km/kwh, so it's not hard to get 75km/daily charge off 120v, half that in winter. If you want more, invest on a 240V charger.

It will never replace ICE but if we can at least replace 50% cars with EV, we should be all better for it.

[Sugarphreak]

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[flipstah]

Originally posted by msommers


An imminent crisis

SUMMON THE GWAI LO

[Amysicle]

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