Alberta's Future

[HiTempguy1]

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...g-the-industry

Beyond has kind of danced around this discussion before, but I think it would be a good conversation to have among the forum goers.

What are your thoughts on the oil industry going forward?

I'm still young at this game, have a lot to learn. All I know is that its mind boggling the changes I've seen since I graduated. 8 years ago, I never would have dreamed some technological progress/ideas would be where they are at now. Electric cars? Weren't even on the radar. The Tesla Roadster was just some toy that nobody paid a lot of attention to.

Alberta could be in some serious trouble. What do we have to offer Canada (and the world) besides our resources? Especially oil and gas? Gas will probably last longer, especially being used in power plants for the time being while solutions are figured out to deal with the ups and downs of renewable power sources.



This is a fascinating article on BC's economy:

http://credbc.ca/role-energy-sector-bcs-economy/

There is always talk of "diversifying" the Alberta economy. Seems a bit like bullshit to me. When service type jobs (and I'm including things like finance and engineering in that description, jobs that can theoretically be done anywhere in the world to provide a service anywhere else) are not limited by location, why be in Alberta?

Are we going to become another Michigan? I suppose time will tell.

[Sugarphreak]

....

[Xtrema]

Have we use less of something because something else came along?

Or is the 1st time in history we are going to see a reduction trend?


The thing is, there won't be any more projects coming in the scale of what we have seen in the last 15 years. It's all about operating profit now and going forward. There is no money to justify expansions.

We do have good infrastructures and eventually, with enough people unemployed that labor become cheap again and with cheap office space, should attract some businesses to move here to set up shop.

Here's the catch 22. Other business won't thrive if oil business booms and poached people. But suppressing oil businesses also hard to make Alberta prosper. Diversification in AB is tough.

[dirtsniffer]

I don't think all of Michigan has gone to shit. Detroit sure, but that would likely be Edmonton.

I still propose the way to diversify Alberta's economy is to shelter any revenue generated from a patented product designed and made in Alberta from tax.

[Buster]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer
I don't think all of Michigan has gone to shit. Detroit sure, but that would likely be Edmonton.

I still propose the way to diversify Alberta's economy is to shelter any revenue generated from a patented product designed and made in Alberta from tax.

This man gets it.

I find it funny that we all stand around with our dicks in our hands, scratching our heads, wondering why we can't create the magical "diversity" in an economy. As if "diversity" is a thing that exists instead of being just a vague descriptor.

The REAL reason we don't have a more diversified economy is because Canadians refuse to reward success...or even really celebrate it. Canada, from a business perspective, is mostly loserville. The biggest missing ingredient in terms of departing from being just resources extractors, is the presence of health capital markets in the venture space. Raising money in Canada is a joke. And it's a cultural thing that I don't think will ever change.

Here's some thing we would need to have in place before we start seeing new industries magically arise from out of nowhere. (Hint: Canadians suck at all of these things):

- functioning supply of early-stage venture, which is limited by the rest of the list
- ability to reward success, and not act like jealous assholes when someone actually ends up getting rich
- stop taxing successful people, so when they do hit on something, they aren't expected to share it with the dopes that didn't write a cheque and take a risk
- much lower taxes on capital gains
- stop complaining about wealth inequality as if it is always a bad thing

[ickyflex]

One thing I think we need is proper incentives for tech companies to open up shop in Calgary.

Albertans are highly educated and we are willing to change our skillset to meet employer demands.

Tech is the way of the future for growth right now and we need a piece of the pie here.

[b_t]

Originally posted by ickyflex
One thing I think we need is proper incentives for tech companies to open up shop in Calgary.

Albertans are highly educated and we are willing to change our skillset to meet employer demands.

Tech is the way of the future for growth right now and we need a piece of the pie here.

No it isn't. Tech jobs are at very high risk of being automated. People at tech companies are constantly trying to develop ways to put themselves out of work.

We might get a decade or two out of tech but just one proper breakthrough (ie. self-programming computers) will eliminate hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of jobs just like that and a fledgling tech sector would be the hardest hit.

[suntan]

Originally posted by b_t


No it isn't. Tech jobs are at very high risk of being automated. People at tech companies are constantly trying to develop ways to put themselves out of work.

We might get a decade or two out of tech but just one proper breakthrough (ie. self-programming computers) will eliminate hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of jobs just like that and a fledgling tech sector would be the hardest hit.

The only people that believe this shit are people that don't understand computers.

[speedog]

Originally posted by suntan
The only people that believe this shit are people that don't understand computers.

Really?

Well I must have really been led down the garden path for the 26+ years I was in the telecommunications industry during which a lot of my time was spent working on projects/systems whose main intent was to eliminate jobs through the use of computers and computer programs with the successful outcome of doing just such.

Oh and I do understand computers a wee bit, started out programming PDP1140's with paper punch tape and moved on from there. You do remember those, don't you?


» Click image for larger version

[max_boost]

lol

So, Alberta will have less lifted trucks in the future?!

And fewer Beyond millionaires from the oil patch.

[ZenOps]

I remember seeing university of Calgary ID's made with punchcard holes for computer recognition. Crazy how fast things moved since then.

[Marsh]

Originally posted by Buster


This man gets it.

I find it funny that we all stand around with our dicks in our hands, scratching our heads, wondering why we can't create the magical "diversity" in an economy. As if "diversity" is a thing that exists instead of being just a vague descriptor.

The REAL reason we don't have a more diversified economy is because Canadians refuse to reward success...or even really celebrate it. Canada, from a business perspective, is mostly loserville. The biggest missing ingredient in terms of departing from being just resources extractors, is the presence of health capital markets in the venture space. Raising money in Canada is a joke. And it's a cultural thing that I don't think will ever change.

Here's some thing we would need to have in place before we start seeing new industries magically arise from out of nowhere. (Hint: Canadians suck at all of these things):

- functioning supply of early-stage venture, which is limited by the rest of the list
- ability to reward success, and not act like jealous assholes when someone actually ends up getting rich
- stop taxing successful people, so when they do hit on something, they aren't expected to share it with the dopes that didn't write a cheque and take a risk
- much lower taxes on capital gains
- stop complaining about wealth inequality as if it is always a bad thing

Pretty much all this. Our society is just generally geared towards socialism, and other feel good nonsense. We are not capitalists, or have a capitalist mindset at all. We are a fraction of the size of the US in terms of economy, population, etc.

There just isn't any incentive for people to start new companies and get rewarded richly for them. Any legitimately good idea just gets taken down to the US where it will be appropriately funded, executed and rewarded.

Example: Shopify, which lib retards say Oh look a succesful canadian tech company....which started in California and only a few years ago moved their HQ to Toronto once they gained enough traction and funding in the US first. So many more examples but too long to write out...

Edit: To answer OP, I think Alberta will recover, its just part of the cycle. But it seems worse at this time because of other factors piling on as well, such as shitty gov't policy (Prov and Fed) and the tech/automation of jobs as well as renewable energy nonsense

[flipstah]

A diverse economy will help Alberta. We're very oilcentric.

We need culture.

[Type_S1]

Canada, not just Alberta, is a resource driven economy. Energy, agriculture, mining, lumber, water, etc. Is what has given Canadians the quality of life we are all accustomed to. There is no point in diversifying into BS...Canada needs to support its resource sectors and allow them to become world class. The liberal "woe is me socialist" attitude is what is destroying this country. We should be proud of our industries as we are the bench mark in the world for environmental while developing these resources. Instead of being brain washed by left wing retards that we are bad we need to realize how great we are.

That's how to fix Alberta...fk the BS tech jobs. Let's be honest, no o&g engineer will ever become a software engineer.

[ercchry]

The real issue with startups in calgary is that anyone reliable, educated, and motivated can easily find a well paying job and are risk adverse... leaving a pretty pathetic pool of talent to pick through

[suntan]

Originally posted by speedog


Really?

Well I must have really been led down the garden path for the 26+ years I was in the telecommunications industry during which a lot of my time was spent working on projects/systems whose main intent was to eliminate jobs through the use of computers and computer programs with the successful outcome of doing just such.

Oh and I do understand computers a wee bit, started out programming PDP1140's with paper punch tape and moved on from there. You do remember those, don't you?


» Click image for larger version

And you believe that transistor based technology will somehow be able to adapt to external stimuli on its own?

You realize that current technology is about as resilient to, say, tomato sauce as we are to hydrogen sulfide?

[ZenOps]

America is still a very young nation. In 1850, 100% of north America was burning wood for energy. Yes, to this day most of Canadas wealth has been from massive natural resources and nearly no finished goods (other than beaver hats)

That does not mean we shouldn't put a few dollars to the future though. Electric cars could definitely come in a big way and be a disruptive technology.

LED light bulbs, which are finally half decent quality and half decent price to manufacture and sell have replaced 5% efficient traditional bulbs. 14nm computer chips sip power while nearing human brain levels of ability.

Although directly competing with Asian nations who already embraced the transistor revolution early might not be a great idea either.

[Seth1968]

Originally posted by suntan
And you believe that transistor based technology will somehow be able to adapt to external stimuli on its own?

You realize that current technology is about as resilient to, say, tomato sauce as we are to hydrogen sulfide?

Or as a rock is to consciousness.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by ercchry
The real issue with startups in calgary is that anyone reliable, educated, and motivated can easily find a well paying job and are risk adverse... leaving a pretty pathetic pool of talent to pick through

If you a developer, do you want to do something for $80K with 10% of getting rich to do something that's highly complex or do some dumb shit for $100K + Bonus.

That's why tech industry has a tough time surviving here. You can't keep good people around with reasonable wages when resource industry keep poaching at 30% above market.

[Hallowed_point]

It seems that everyone and their dog is starting a micro brewery these days. How much beer can hipsters buy is my question,,