Official Cryptocurrency Trading Thread

[revelations]

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This should now be a multi month decline if count is correct.]

Thats completely against the typical BTC bull run history. It will likely stabilize/decline here for a day/week, and then keep going.

Again, you are applying a far too much of a myopic view of the price action.

No T/A needed at all.

[SilverRex]

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Thats completely against the typical BTC bull run history. It will likely stabilize/decline here for a day/week, and then keep going.

Again, you are applying a far too much of a myopic view of the price action.

No T/A needed at all.

I apply the same principle for all my trades, not that it is ever fail proof, but limits my risk and increase my winning odds. If BTC just keeps stepping up higher, then to me I am not going to chase this thing. There are plenty of other opportunistic right now. If it goes pull back to my buy zone, then the risk/reward could be tremendous.

[revelations]

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BTC

count has not changed. BTC finally broke into 6000 as expected. Now I expect it will seek a top between 6000-6800 or top may even already be in. We should see a more significant pull back with a chance to still break below 5000 one last time follow by yet another wave higher into wave 5, I suspect once this major 5 wave completes we could have a very long sideways correction that could last for many months before an explosive upside begins.

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BTC

It was even more bullish then I had thought with an 5th wave extension. Perhaps one more micro wave higher that should do it. I expect we have completed 5 waves up off the low which now puts the 4000-5000 on the radar for a big correction. Looking at how the crypto shares are reacting, this would be the time to take some profit off the table for a chance to buy back low. An alt count would be to see BTC dip back under 7k grind side ways for a bit and shoot for another high. Either way there is a bigger risk for a steep retreacement. I have sold most of my crypto shares last week will be looking to buy back when everyone starts giving up on this rally.

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Sold all my crypto's and shares. No more position, I think BTC at best maybe can squeeze in one more new high and I think that will be it. Looking for a major buy back in a couple of weeks (or months)

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BTC

After BTC topping out at about 9090 which to me looks like a 5 wave completion off the Feb low. I am revising my count a little and calling this a large wave 3 top. Now looking for a large wave 4 drop with a minimum target of diving back to 6600 or below. Then one more higher high to complete a large wave 5 targeting 10k+. There will be plenty of opportunity still to accumulate over the course of the next couple of months as ultimately I want to see a text book EW drop back down to the 4-5k area which should shake out alot of people and starting calling BTC dead again. Thats where I will being to scale back in all my crpyto positions.

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BTC

quick update on the current count. Nothing has change. Still expecting a major 5 wave topping to complete quite soon, BTC is currently quite bullish having to produce two running flat wave 4s limiting downside targets. Causing even more people to jump in. However I expect we will find a top now that we have arrived in our wave 5 topping blue box. Technically, it could end here as it has broken the May 30 high. We will now see how far high it can muster as this phase is all the bandwagon investor jumping on exchanging hands with earlier investors who are now looking to buy lower. (that includes myself)

With the non-stop rising action, BTC is fully above the 200 day moving average, the next major correction I am targeting the red box somewhere between 5500-6600

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BTC

So far count remains intact. I see 5 waves up and now a large ABC correctional wave 2 begins. While the final 5th wave overshot my target to the upside, this is fine in an uptrend. as I have mention before, due to Fib extension, the higher this 5 wave top, the higher the target for the next 5 wave up will hit.

This should now be a multi month decline if count is correct. The only way I would count this rally dead is if it breaks below 4500. I know some have suggested this rally being just a counter trend wave B top with wave C to hit lower <3k. While in EW term, anything is possible, I personally am leaning more towards this being a major breakout move due to the fact it is very impulsive in nature off the low. Even if this is wave B top, I would expect a 3 down follow by another 5 up >13.8k (aka 5-3-5) That would possibly be my alt count.

I will definitely be adding when BTC gets back into the blue box.

Do you need any more examples of how much of a mockery you have made of your particular brand of T/A zig zag "comedy central" approach?

You have been wrong 100% of the time.

BTC has, as its done in the past many times during its (non linear) bull runs, kept right on climbing. No T/A needed here to observe the obvious.

This is exactly what T/A specialists dont do. T/A is supposed to be a simple approach. Use obvious historical patterns and price action to predict likely movements over a LONGER time period.

I cant tell you where the top is, but I can tell you that based on simple observation that we definitely have a GOOD chance of beating the last price peak here with BTC bull runs.

Predicting anything else above the previous top is fiction.

[SilverRex]

LTC

BTC so far has given a 3-3-3 wave move between 10-13k. While I am still leaning towards a text book EW correction for a minimum hit of 7500 or below. Just looking at BTC chart isnt enough. because for a similar count, both LTC/ETH has been dropping more in line to what I was expecting back into it's prior wave 3/4 range. If other coins are moving down as planed and BTC doesnt, then I have to consider BTC is in some sort of high level consolidation triangle (similar to what gold is doing right now), pinball between 10-13k, then breakout towards another new high.

With this, after selling all my coins/shares in May. I am scaling back into some exposure in XRP/LTC/XLM. Will keep some ammo in case crypto in general can garner further bearish momentum and hit that additional 20% drop.

[FunWheelDrive]

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Do you need any more examples of how much of a mockery you have made of your particular brand of T/A zig zag "comedy central" approach?

You have been wrong 100% of the time.

BTC has, as its done in the past many times during its (non linear) bull runs, kept right on climbing. No T/A needed here to observe the obvious.

This is exactly what T/A specialists dont do. T/A is supposed to be a simple approach. Use obvious historical patterns and price action to predict likely movements over a LONGER time period.

I cant tell you where the top is, but I can tell you that based on simple observation that we definitely have a GOOD chance of beating the last price peak here with BTC bull runs.

Predicting anything else above the previous top is fiction.

Man, STFU, nobody has ANY idea what's going to happen in the crypto space. It's all about probability and best guess. If you're such a genius obviously rolling around in your Bitcoin lambo, why don't you share your insight with us?

[Kobe]

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Man, STFU, nobody has ANY idea what's going to happen in the crypto space. It's all about probability and best guess. If you're such a genius obviously rolling around in your Bitcoin lambo, why don't you share your insight with us?

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

They do!

Edit: Explained here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tradi...180000904.html

[revelations]

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Man, STFU, nobody has ANY idea what's going to happen in the crypto space. It's all about probability and best guess. If you're such a genius obviously rolling around in your Bitcoin lambo, why don't you share your insight with us?

I have shared my insight - you should read backwards where in (I think Nov?) I suggested buying in at 5000$. I doubt think anyone did - but thats exactly what I did.

I did the same also back when BTC was at 300$ and all the hype was gone. Its not rocket science.

I've been involved with BTC since late 2012 and while I certainly dont consider myself an expert, I showed how random fucking zig zag lines have failed 100% of the time here.

[SilverRex]

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I have shared my insight - you should read backwards where in (I think Nov?) I suggested buying in at 5000$. I doubt think anyone did - but thats exactly what I did. I did the same also back when BTC was at 300$ and all the hype was gone. Its not rocket science.

I've been involved with BTC since late 2012 and while I certainly dont consider myself an expert, I showed how random fucking zig zag lines have failed 100% of the time here.

To me trading is an art. Not about trying to be right every single time which no on can. Even though I hate to disagree with you on the charts you quote me on. I need to lay down the principle that EW requires continuous re-counting and re-evaluation. It will always be better than shooting in the dark. You have your own systems and so do I, it is the same EW guidelines that I follow (and I only use the basic ones to keep trading simple) to offer some key levels that will help me determine if I am in a bearish trend or bullish trend. One thing that might be causing you confusion is that the EW terms, moves can often extend themselves. e.g. standard EW count 5-5-5, with extension 5-(5-5-5)-5. It is with these extension that would often stretch the rally or decline but over all count can remain intact. Dont confuse EW extension as a way to show I am incorrect.

I am just amazed at how you are trolling me for being 100% wrong which is a bold statement when clearly if you follow all my post it is far from it.
If you are so incline to point out all the issues with how I use TA, why dont you also quote me on the following because all of my views are all based on the same EW TA I use.

May 23 2018 - I said if BTC 6k doesnt hold, it will be headed to 3k
Aug 17 2018 - I have started to switch more of a bearish tone unless BTC can break >8500 which it didnt and a very large ABC pattern is at play
Aug 28 2018 - I started counting the move up being a corrective ABC and warned (get ready for back down to 5k and even 3k)
Sep 19 2018 - When XRP made a pop >31c I targeted the 200MA at >50c
Nov 06 2018 - Again saying XRP 47c must be hold or back down she goes
Mar 22 2019 - When no on cares I spotted a reverse ascending triangle pattern in the 3k zone. get ready for some upside

[Kobe]

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To me trading is an art. Not about trying to be right every single time which no on can. Even though I hate to disagree with you on the charts you quote me on. I need to lay down the principle that EW requires continuous re-counting and re-evaluation. It will always be better than shooting in the dark. You have your own systems and so do I, it is the same EW guidelines that I follow (and I only use the basic ones to keep trading simple) to offer some key levels that will help me determine if I am in a bearish trend or bullish trend.

Most traders are wrong about 45% of the time, but they TP (Take profit) to cover SL (Stop Lose) - When your trading Crypto/any stock you should not look at it as I made X Amount of money but my ROI is X (Long-term)

This is extremely similar to poker except in poker we can use ADJ ROI as we get into coinflips 70/30 spots and its obvious when it's one of those spots...


As BTC follows EW I think you should open up your BLX chart on Tradingview - and anyone trading right now with anything less than a hourly is out of their mind.

I have a friend telling me he doesn't even look at daily charts, i was like wtf?

I don't think people should be flammed for incorrect suggestions (Hell 90%+ of traders are losing traders including myself) so i realized to stay on the sidelines unless I find a better odds only trade.

This whole run though has been parabolic IMO and I would not be the least bit surprised with us going to new lows because of it or retest.

Why?
You have Hidden bearish Divergence on every indicator possible for basically this whole rally.
You had NO Volume at the bottom which is one of the key indicators
There is minimal new people getting into BTC (This is not a bull run) ask any youtuber they aren't getting new subs - in the previous bull run they got a bunch of new subs, there is interest.


2014 Volume

» Click image for larger version

2018 Volume

» Click image for larger version

My opinion though.

[SilverRex]

BTC

right now BTC has given us a perfect 3-3-5 waves for a A=C move. This 'can' be the completion of this correction and new highs are ahead. The low yesterday must hold. If failure to hold would imply the beginning of a failed A=C pattern and my alt count of hitting the 7500-8000 will begin.

[Kobe]

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BTC

right now BTC has given us a perfect 3-3-5 waves for a A=C move. This 'can' be the completion of this correction and new highs are ahead. The low yesterday must hold. If failure to hold would imply the beginning of a failed A=C pattern and my alt count of hitting the 7500-8000 will begin.

What kind of odds will you give me that we make a new low (under $3,100) before we make a new high ($20,000)

No i won't do 1:1 Because there is so many other options where we can drop 8k 7k 6k 5k 4k etc and go to new highs, I'm saying WE NEED to go under the previous low ($3,100)

[SilverRex]

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What kind of odds will you give me that we make a new low (under $3,100) before we make a new high ($20,000)

No i won't do 1:1 Because there is so many other options where we can drop 8k 7k 6k 5k 4k etc and go to new highs, I'm saying WE NEED to go under the previous low ($3,100)

I will consider new lows if BTC breaks below 4500, thats how low it needs to hit to invalidate the current count/up move. Otherwise I am still expecting the next major move to be to the upside (once this correction ends)

[SilverRex]

BTC

With the large A=C corrective ABC structure I mention from previous post, btc now has 5 up and 3 down. perfectly landed in the 38-61% retracement zone. As long as it does not break a new low under 9071. If it does, I will have to consider the journey back down to 7500-8000 back on the radar. Given all coins like ETH/LTC has already corrected significantly like a major wave 2 down. My primary count remains potentially BTC has bottomed and a new cycle up is about to being.

[SilverRex]

LTC

I think this is much easier to count then BTC. it is possible LTC wave 2 may have been completed. BTC nearly broken it's wave C low at 9071 and invalidated the ABC setup. So will watch that closely. but until it does, leaning towards correction being finished. The alt count I see is a more drawn out wave 2 and we are now working in a wave c of b up follow by another wave lower still. The prior wave 4 has the tendency to act such a magnet during any significant corrections.

[SilverRex]

BTC

lets go back and review BTC count again. so far 9071 remains to hold. I have two paths on bitcoin and somehow it is moving a bit different than all the alt coins. In a way BTC is more bullish then the alt counts. all the alt coins looked like they are moving down into their large degree wave 2 correction and some even new lows. yet BTC remains to consolidate. I have already scaled back into the sector (light exposure) due to the off chance that as long as 9071 doesnt break, I will view the consolidation as just another large wave 4 correction. Once the consolidation completes, BTC has the chance to breakout and back test the ATH near 20k. This then will setup what could be a big bull trap or longer term double top.

The risk is certainly there with BTC neither at 20k nor is it down into the blue box which I have always been waiting for (to load up the boat) if and when 9071 breaks then I will expect the bottom to take shape in the blue box for a wave C of 2 low. Otherwise the orange count will be yet another up swing in BTC to tag 20k to complete a full 5 waves pattern which included an extended wave 3 structure which is pretty impulsive

[SilverRex]

LTC

when I talked about in May/June how once the sector completes 5 wave top, we will enter a multi month correction.decline with plenty of opportunity to get back in. It was not a joke. or a guess. it is a system I follow and often it offers a good guide to help manage your risk along side what ever other reason or strategy you may use to trade this space or any other markets. certainly nothing is ever guaranteed in life, even being wrong at times, but when things do move accordingly, it is a beautiful thing to watch.

right now BTC is at the point of no return, its where the rubber meets the road. it is awfully close to 9071 which is my line in the sand and keeping the triangle/consolidation pattern valid. breaking this would again slaughter all the alt coins. and LTC will then may even push towards the 78 fib retracement level around 40-50. Until that happens. I just have to stick to my original count and the blue box between 38-68% retracement is where the bottom lands. it is right at the end of the blue box. the drawn out A=C played out with a pretty clear mini 5 wave count to the down side after achieve the higher wave b top.

[speedog]

So 5+ years ago, it was all about how Bitcoin was going to be everywhere, you'd buy your groceries with it, you'd buy your fuel with it, etc, etc, etc and yet here we are in 2019 with less than 50 Bitcoin ATM's in the city and one still can not go to Superstore and buy groceries with Bitcoin, same for fuel and most other things. Regular ATM's, they have to number in the thousands in the city and the number of Interac/credit card terminals has to be in the ten's of thousands.

What happened to all of the Bitcoin predictions, seems to be an absolute failure as an everyday currency?

[revelations]

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So 5+ years ago, it was all about how Bitcoin was going to be everywhere, you'd buy your groceries with it, you'd buy your fuel with it, etc, etc, etc and yet here we are in 2019 with less than 50 Bitcoin ATM's in the city and one still can not go to Superstore and buy groceries with Bitcoin, same for fuel and most other things. Regular ATM's, they have to number in the thousands in the city and the number of Interac/credit card terminals has to be in the ten's of thousands.

What happened to all of the Bitcoin predictions, seems to be an absolute failure as an everyday currency?

One of the founders had a podcast - BTC suffered from infighting and indecision - one faction wanted BTC as 'digital gold' and the other as a transaction currency - guess which side won?

[pheoxs]

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So 5+ years ago, it was all about how Bitcoin was going to be everywhere, you'd buy your groceries with it, you'd buy your fuel with it, etc, etc, etc and yet here we are in 2019 with less than 50 Bitcoin ATM's in the city and one still can not go to Superstore and buy groceries with Bitcoin, same for fuel and most other things. Regular ATM's, they have to number in the thousands in the city and the number of Interac/credit card terminals has to be in the ten's of thousands.

What happened to all of the Bitcoin predictions, seems to be an absolute failure as an everyday currency?

Simply put, Blockstream fucked it all up on purpose.

[SilverRex]

btc

just a quick update. BTC triangle consolidation continues to remain valid. we just had a higher wave c low at 9321 which imo will now be the key level to watch. I have been scaling in crypto shares and coins in the last few weeks. We will soon find out if this was indeed the right move on my part. a nice micro 5 waves off 9321 and so I expect resistance for a near term top around 11200 will be imminent. Might add to my position during a 3 wave pull back for wave E or sub 2 with a tight stop

Again I am leaning towards this being the prefer count just because other coins like LTC has fully corrected to my buy zone. I would hate to see alt coins giving back all the gains this year. But if 9321 breaks follow by 9071 then the blue box will be my next buying area.