Help With Hockey Pool

[Mitsu3000gt]

I was hoping some of you that are much more versed in hockey than me can help me make up my mind on some final picks for my hockey pool. My hockey knowledge is very limited beyond looking at past performance, but I like being in at least one pool per year to keep me interested. It's the simplest possible straight points format, 1pt goal, 1pt assist, 2pt goalie win - that's it.


I've made up my mind on some (some were obvious like McDavid), but I still need to pick one player from the following groups:

1)
James van Riemsdyk
Markus Granlund
Max Pacioretty
Mike Hoffman
Ryan Johansen

I was thinking Pacioretty or JVR - both are doing well already on their respective new teams, but it's because they are on new teams that it's harder to just look at past performance. Pacioretty did bad last year but Montreal sucked and I think he was injured.

2)
Brent Burns
Dustin Byfuglien
Erik Karlsson
PK Subban
Victor Hedman

I can't make up my mind between Burns, Karlsson, and Hedman. Burns and Hedman seem like safer pics because it's easier to look at previous performance on the same team, but Karlsson is the most elite D-man probably. Karlsson managed to produce even on the dumpster fire of a team that was Ottawa though. Again unsure because of the new team, and can he share the spotlight with Burns? SJ's PP is going to be scary this year.

3)
Johnny Gaudreau
Mark Scheifele
Mitch Marner
Patrice Bergeron
Vladimir Tarasenko

I am torn between Gaudreau and Marner. Gaudreau is coming off a career high 84pts, but all previous seasons have alternated good years and 'bad' (less points) years. I want to pick Marner now that he is with Tavares, and he was on pace for 90pt season at one point last year, but he's more of a gamble as Johnny is probably a guaranteed 65-70 pts. Thoughts?

4)
Brock Boeser
Mikko Rantanen
Nicklas Backstrom
Patric Hornqvist
Sebastian Aho

I was thinking Rantanen, but I also have Mackinnon and Landeskog in other groupings, and Colorado has looked horrid in the preseason haha - do you guys think Colorado is going to put up numbers like last season with those 3 guys? Only other guy I would probably consider is Backstrom as that is probably a guaranteed 60pts+. Thoughts? I'm worried I might be a little to deep on Colorado, but if they do what they did last year it will pay off points-wise.

5)
Dougie Hamilton
Kris Letang
Roman Josi
Torey Krug
Tyson Barrie

Basically it's between Letang, Josi, and Krug - I don't want a 4th Colorado player in case they do bad haha. I was thinking Josi just to mix it up but Letang and Krug can put up some good numbers. For some reason I think Letang gets injured a lot.

6)
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Connor Hellebuyck
Braden Holtby
Pekka Rinne
Tuukka Rask

I am leaning towards Vasilevskiy or Hellebuyck they all get tons of starts and are on good teams. Probably will be similar by end of season.


I think that's all of the ones I couldn't decide on (there was 21 groups in total) - TIA!

[ganesh]

I am by no means a hockey expert.If I was picking this would be my selection,
1) JVR
2) Karlsson
3) Marner
4) Boeser
5) Krug
6) Rask

[Quizzes]

My picks:

1) Pacioretty - Bad year last year, but will be playing with better linemates in Vegas
2) Karlsson - Pure point producing defenseman
3) Gaudreau - More depth and addition of a better RW in Neal or Lindholm will get him more points
4) Backstrom - I'm surprised he's part of this grouping. Always been a point per game player
5) Josi - Would go with Letang, but you're right, he tends to be out for long periods. Josi plays in all situations
6) Vasilevskiy - Tampa Bay will be tops in their division while Winnipeg's division has some good teams to contend with

[Mitsu3000gt]

Thanks guys. I'm sure you both know more than I do haha.

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My picks:

1) Pacioretty - Bad year last year, but will be playing with better linemates in Vegas
2) Karlsson - Pure point producing defenseman
3) Gaudreau - More depth and addition of a better RW in Neal or Lindholm will get him more points
4) Backstrom - I'm surprised he's part of this grouping. Always been a point per game player
5) Josi - Would go with Letang, but you're right, he tends to be out for long periods. Josi plays in all situations
6) Vasilevskiy - Tampa Bay will be tops in their division while Winnipeg's division has some good teams to contend with

Thanks - those explanations are very helpful.

One more for you - Marchessault or Couturier? Couturier is coming off a second injury in 5 months (just reading news) but plays with Giroux and had a hot last season. He is supposed to play this weekend for the first time, I guess I can see how he does. Marchessault played just as well last season, and I assume will again if Vegas is still good and if they don't stuff him on a lower line.

Did you not think Rantanen will produce again? He got 84pts last season but there is zero prior data. You're right that Backstrom seems to be a lot more consistent, basically puts up 70 pts every year he plays full. 71 last season. I have Landeskog and Mackinnon as well if that matters - maybe not so good to have that many players on one team.

I like the Gaudreau call - probably safer. Even if Marner puts up huge points, it probably won't be too much more than Gaudreau.

I'll stick with Karlsson and the new team - even if he doesn't put up his best numbers on SJ, he will still do really well I'm sure.

EDIT: Last one I promise - Landeskog or Trocheck? I'm leaning toward Trocheck so I don't have so many Colorado players.

[Quizzes]

Marchessault vs Couturier is a little tough. Marchessault is a bit unproven and had a massive year last year got a big pay day, which traditionally means they won't try as hard. I have a feeling him and most of the Vegas team will regress a little this year. Couturier is a little more established, but he's more of a defensive centreman, so they're typically not a crazy point producer. He definitely broke out last year, but tough to tell if he will repeat that this year. Just based on offense, I'd probably pick Marchessault.

Rantanen's production revolves around MacKinnon, whereas Backstrom makes his linemates better. Historically speaking, I feel Backstrom is a safer bet.

[Mitsu3000gt]

Thanks again.

I think I'll also take Trocheck over Landeskog and put a steak in it.

[88CRX]

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1)
Max Pacioretty

2)
Brent Burns

3)
Vladimir Tarasenko

4)
Nicklas Backstrom

5)
Kris Letang

6)
Andrei Vasilevskiy

7)
Profit!

[Mitsu3000gt]

^^ That looks good too. I can't stop tinkering. I keep reading little things that change my mind haha.

That's 2 votes for Backstrom though, so he's in. Hopefully Rantanen doesn't do quite as well as last year!

Malkin, Seguin, or Marchand? Malkin played out of his mind but can he do it again...and avoid injury.

Hall or Giroux?

So much for my last question haha.

[D'z Nutz]

I agree for the most part on Quizzes' picks, although I'd probably pick Rinne over Vasilevskiy.

I'd take a gamble on Marchand. If he can keep from getting suspended this season, he'll outproduce either Malkin or Seguin. Malkin gets injured a lot.

Hall over Giroux, easily.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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I agree for the most part on Quizzes' picks, although I'd probably pick Rinne over Vasilevskiy.

I'd take a gamble on Marchand. If he can keep from getting suspended this season, he'll outproduce either Malkin or Seguin. Malkin gets injured a lot.

Hall over Giroux, easily.

Thanks.

Hall over Giroux just because he's unlikely to put up 100+ again? I guess he's usually around 60-70pts. Apparently Hall played with a hand injury so 93 pts is impressive. I don't know enough about Hall or NJ to predict if he will do that again but he looked good in preseason. He played 72 games last year though and only got 53 pts.

If I somehow win I owe all you guys a beer

[D'z Nutz]

@Mitsu3000gt how did you end up doing and what did that final roster look like?

[Mitsu3000gt]

I should finish in about 25th place out of 45, so it wasn't great haha. I was top 10 for a while but the instant an injury happens or if a player under-performs you automatically lose the pool unless people above you get even more devastating handicaps. That is the nature of the set & forget pool though I guess - I would have loved to have a few pickups.

This was my team:

1 McDavid, Connor (C) F 115
2 MacKinnon, Nathan (C) F 97!
3 Gaudreau, Johnny (LW) F 97!
4 Point, Brayden (C) F 92!
5 Vasilevskiy, Andrei (G) G 88!
6 Rantanen, Mikko (RW) F 87!
7 Giroux, Claude (C) F 82
8 Kessel, Phil (RW) F 79
9 Andersen, Frederik (G) G 75
10 Jones, Martin (G) G 75
11 Malkin, Evgeni (C) F 71x
12 Voracek, Jakub (RW) F 65x
13 Barzal, Mathew (C) F 62x
14 Marchessault, Jonathan (C) F 58
15 Josi, Roman (D) D 56
16 Staal, Eric (C) F 52x
17 Karlsson, Erik (D) D 45x
18 Pacioretty, Max (LW) F 40x
19 Gostisbehere, Shayne (D) D 37x
20 Ehlers, Nikolaj (LW) F 35x
21 Trocheck, Vincent (C) F 33x

Some huge disappointments / under-performers for sure. Lots to reflect on for next year.

My defense was an absolute disaster - I should have taken Burns over Karlsson and Carlson over Gost. Philly didn't do nearly as well as I expected, I went in pretty hard on them. Trocheck was injured forever. Malkin was out a while (as is tradition). Gostisbehere was especially bad. Karlsson was a massive disappointment, and he was injured - learned my lesson picking guys on new teams, especially one that already has that exact position filled by one of the best in the league. Never again. Pacioretty was pretty bad for the same reason, plus an injury. Ehlers was terrible, and I think he got injured somewhere in there too.

My goalies were all top 5 so that is about as good as you can hope for. I was happy with those. Martin Jones is an absolute sieve, but his team got him lots of wins.

Guy in first place is up by ~145pts, more than if I had an extra player and that player was Kucherov haha. Just looking at the people with the most points, they all seemed to pick players in line pairs (McDavid & Draisaitil, Point & Kucherov, Huberdeau & Barkov, etc.) That seems like the smartest play going forward, if the categories allow for it.

Lots of players had career years this year and I didn't have nearly enough of them, so there seems to be quite a bit of luck involved still. For example Riley, Giordano, Barkov, Kucherov, Draisaitl, etc. Shit, even Huberdeau is going to finish with 90+ points haha. Some things you just can't predict!

[D'z Nutz]

Marchand hit 100 points yesterday and I remembered this thread, but I see you passed on him. Oh well. He was tearing it up on my fantasy team cause he does it all. Good thing you passed on Hall too haha

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Marchand hit 100 points yesterday and I remembered this thread, but I see you passed on him. Oh well. He was tearing it up on my fantasy team cause he does it all. Good thing you passed on Hall too haha

Damn, I didn't know he was that high too. So many people in the 100pt club this year its crazy.

Yeah Hall would have probably been the biggest disaster, especially with the players I would have had to pass on to get him. Kucherov would have been the best possible pick, followed by Kane and McDavid/Draisaitl I think and then Marchand. Lots of guys sitting at 90-97ish right now too with a couple games left. I would have had to swap out 5-6 guys to have a shot at winning in hindsight.

I probably won't do another pool of this format unless there are pickups, the guy in first place has been there since November or so and it kind of sucks the fun out of it knowing there is nothing you can do about it.

I learned a lot about hockey this year, got into the podcasts, watched way more games, etc. That is the main reason why I join at least 1 pool every year, because if I don't I lose all interest in hockey and don't follow it. If I have a reason to watch it changes everything. I also did a FanDuel league which I really enjoyed because for me the draft is the most fun.

[rage2]

I've watched a couple of Boston games because of Marchand. Guy cracks me up. Big asshole with top line offensive talent. So awesome, big fan.

[D'z Nutz]

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I've watched a couple of Boston games because of Marchand. Guy cracks me up. Big asshole with top line offensive talent. So awesome, big fan.

I know, the guy is such a troll AND he's a really good hockey player. Hilarious on twitter too. I'm such a huge fan of the guy. I want to sell my Seguin Boston jersey and get a Marchand one haha

[Mitsu3000gt]

Marchand strikes me as the kind of guy that everyone wants on their team but nobody wants to play against haha. I guess that is an ideal place to be. The lick was a bit over the top though.