Alberta Separatism is starting to go mainstream

[killramos]

The people who should be really concerned would be the feds who almost certainly get a credit review when their biggest revenue contribution dries up.

Debt per capita stays the same. GDP per capita drops like a rock. Sounds like a great time to be in debt.

[04Terminator]

youtube economics is pervasive.

Look around. There's maybe one country in the world with no public debt. We certainly won't and can't accomplish anything close to that.

You are assuming income will stay the same when a landlocked province selling peanut butter high in sulfur separates.

You are ignoring federal costs and spending, uhm, you know, like militarily.



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The people who should be really concerned would be the feds who almost certainly get a credit review when their biggest revenue contribution dries up.

Debt per capita stays the same. GDP per capita drops like a rock. Sounds like a great time to be in debt.

biggest revenue contributor? Do tell.

[Buster]

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The people who should be really concerned would be the feds who almost certainly get a credit review when their biggest revenue contribution dries up.

Debt per capita stays the same. GDP per capita drops like a rock. Sounds like a great time to be in debt.

Correct, Alberta has about 50% more GDP per capita compared to the Canada as a whole. So Alberta's fiscal situation from a debt to GDP ratio perspective after settling its federal level obligations would be much better than it is now, and much, much better than Canada's. It's hard to say how much the markets would punish RoC's borrowing at that point. Sovereign debt to GDP ratios tend to not matter, until they do.

[01RedDX]

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[rage2]

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youtube economics is pervasive.

Look around. There's maybe one country in the world with no public debt. We certainly won't and can't accomplish anything close to that.

You are assuming income will stay the same when a landlocked province selling peanut butter high in sulfur separates.

You are ignoring federal costs and spending, uhm, you know, like militarily.



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biggest revenue contributor? Do tell.

Oil and gas isn't everything. It's roughly 15% of our GDP, 20% if you include downstream activities. But that won't drop to 0. Sure we'd be landlocked, but there would be trade deals made to ensure our neighbouring provinces benefit from access through us as well. Imagine how much more expensive anything in BC and SK would cost if they had to bring everything in by sea or air (or through the US).

Military spending is funny too. Not sure why we would even need military spending. Are we afraid of US or Canada invading or something? It's not like Canada spends a fuck ton on military either.

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What about all the federal gov't employees in Alberta or people who work for Ontario/Quebec based companies? I presume that number is in the hundreds of thousands.

What could we do to mitigate a possible sudden jump to a 20-25% unemployment rate?

Wait, are you telling me that everyone in UK that works for companies outside of UK will suddenly lose their jobs with Brexit finally happens?

[01RedDX]

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[Buster]

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What about all the federal gov't employees in Alberta or people who work for Ontario/Quebec based companies? I presume that number is in the hundreds of thousands.

What could we do to mitigate a possible sudden jump to a 20-25% unemployment rate?

The federal public service in Alberta is quite small. The smallest in the country. It's about half the national average. You wouldn't be able to see what the impact would be until you started to build out the various gov't services. If there is a real thrust towards separatism, you would probably see a provincial police force first.

On the employee issue - here are probably a million different solutions to this problem. Grandfathering visas is probably the easiest for both sides. I think it would be a good idea for AbSask and the new Canada to negotiate relatively open agreements with respect to employment. People assume such a separation would require acrimony. Maybe it would, but it would be unnecessary and counter-productive.

[dirtsniffer]

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What about all the federal gov't employees in Alberta or people who work for Ontario/Quebec based companies? I presume that number is in the hundreds of thousands.

What could we do to mitigate a possible sudden jump to a 20-25% unemployment rate?

The fed's employ 15,000 people in Alberta. There are more federal employees in NS and NB (pop. 800,000).

[suntan]

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Correct, Alberta has about 50% more GDP per capita compared to the Canada as a whole. So Alberta's fiscal situation from a debt to GDP ratio perspective after settling its federal level obligations would be much better than it is now, and much, much better than Canada's. It's hard to say how much the markets would punish RoC's borrowing at that point. Sovereign debt to GDP ratios tend to not matter, until they do.

Canadian dollar would get murdered - Alberta's oil creates significant demand for CAD$. Probably to around 40 cents/USD$. BoC would have to raise interest rates to untenable levels so that bread doesn't cost $20/loaf in Canadaland, that would bankrupt all the debtholders in the country (all the assholes in Vancouver and Toronto) and bankrupt the federal gov't as well as they would be not be able to cover interest payments on debt.

[Buster]

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The fed's employ 15,000 people in Alberta. There are more federal employees in NS and NB (pop. 800,000).

I bet 80% of them would be begging for a new job in the new gov't as well.

[Buster]

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Canadian dollar would get murdered - Alberta's oil creates significant demand for CAD$. Probably to around 40 cents/USD$. BoC would have to raise interest rates to untenable levels so that bread doesn't cost $20/loaf in Canadaland, that would bankrupt all the debtholders in the country (all the assholes in Vancouver and Toronto) and bankrupt the federal gov't as well as they would be not be able to cover interest payments on debt.

This is a topic that's super fascinating. Part of me refuses to do forex predictions, because I made that rule for myself a long time ago. I don't disagree with your sentiment - but I'm not sure the policy response would be what you are suggesting. I think Canada would be forced to absorb some of the inflation and just see a reduced standard of living in the country - but I'm open to be convinced on this topic. The currency is probably the most thorny topic - although I suspect there are some policy experts that would take a view that Alberta's course should be obvious. Given that Alberta would immediately become a petro-state, I assume that it would need to be closely linked to the USD as opposed to the Canadian currency. I doubt a floating AbSask currency would be practical, but maybe? Interesting part of the discussion.

[suntan]

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This is a topic that's super fascinating. Part of me refuses to do forex predictions, because I made that rule for myself a long time ago. I don't disagree with your sentiment - but I'm not sure the policy response would be what you are suggesting. I think Canada would be forced to absorb some of the inflation and just see a reduced standard of living in the country - but I'm open to be convinced on this topic. The currency is probably the most thorny topic - although I suspect there are some policy experts that would take a view that Alberta's course should be obvious. Given that Alberta would immediately become a petro-state, I assume that it would need to be closely linked to the USD as opposed to the Canadian currency. I doubt a floating AbSask currency would be practical, but maybe? Interesting part of the discussion.

The Western currency would be stronger than the CAD$. Way more foreign demand, way less float. Quebec and Ontario don't export a lot as a portion of GDP.

50 cent CAD$ would utterly destroy what remains of Canada's economy. Yields on gov't debt would absolutely soar. That alone would force the BoC to raise interest rates in a non-trivial manner.

[Buster]

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The Western currency would be stronger than the CAD$. Way more foreign demand, way less float. Quebec and Ontario don't export a lot as a portion of GDP.

50 cent CAD$ would utterly destroy what remains of Canada's economy. Yields on gov't debt would absolutely soar. That alone would force the BoC to raise interest rates in a non-trivial manner.

Hard to disagree with this for sure. You'd see a significant uptick in manufacturing in Ontario

[01RedDX]

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[finboy]

Curious on the consideration of independence vs. Asking for statehood with America, and the pros and cons of each

[Buster]

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Curious on the consideration of independence vs. Asking for statehood with America, and the pros and cons of each

Can of worms there. But I would say if Alberta had to choose between being Washington's bitch or Ottawa's bitch...you take Washington every time.

While Canada is not a failed state in the way that, say, Somalia is...it is certainly a failed democracy. It does not accomplish what democracy is designed to accomplish. The Americans don't have the same level of issue with representation.

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There would have to be an immediate switch to the USD at first and there has to be a clear roadmap for transitioning from all the federal programs. There's also the possibility of them keeping a loyalist exclave in Edmonton and an army base or two.

I saw a poll that said 23% "would vote to separate" but a different poll that said 60% see separation as "a real possibility."

So I think people are just waiting for a cohesive and reasonable policy manifesto to emerge. Buster should write it.

haha...I'm definitely not that guy. But I do think we're one respected public figure away from this thing coalescing.

[01RedDX]

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[jwslam]

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In any case I would hate to see it named "Western" anything, directional country names are divisive, take North/South Korea, East/West Germany, North/South Sudan, etc.

Papua New Canada
Democratic Republic of the Canada

[04Terminator]

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Oil and gas isn't everything. It's roughly 15% of our GDP, 20% if you include downstream activities. But that won't drop to 0. Sure we'd be landlocked, but there would be trade deals made to ensure our neighbouring provinces benefit from access through us as well. Imagine how much more expensive anything in BC and SK would cost if they had to bring everything in by sea or air (or through the US).

Military spending is funny too. Not sure why we would even need military spending. Are we afraid of US or Canada invading or something? It's not like Canada spends a fuck ton on military either.


Wait, are you telling me that everyone in UK that works for companies outside of UK will suddenly lose their jobs with Brexit finally happens?

It's not everything. But we'd separate over it?

We would lose any "access" games in a big way.

And I agree. Canada is wasting $22 billion on military spending. We should abolish that.

Separation is beyond stupid. Lol

Seems a big part of the separatists goals here is hurting Canada at all costs, and dressing it up as something else

Bunch of babies. You lose one election here and there and wah wah wah wah. Lol

[04Terminator]

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The Western currency would be stronger than the CAD$. Way more foreign demand, way less float. Quebec and Ontario don't export a lot as a portion of GDP.

50 cent CAD$ would utterly destroy what remains of Canada's economy. Yields on gov't debt would absolutely soar. That alone would force the BoC to raise interest rates in a non-trivial manner.

You are high. We wouldn't even be able to maintain a Western currency, would have to use USD, give up any control of money supply, our debts would be external, interest rates would spiral out of control. Our debt load would quintuple as we set up replacements for federal programs, our credit rating would plummet etc.

And our reputation as a safe stable place to do business would be shattered. Lose one election and chaos ensues! Lol. Fuckin babies.

Hey, morans, in a democracy your unregistered insurance sales guy won't always win.