US Exchange Rate Forecast

[JRSC00LUDE]

Seeing chatter about the CDN/US $ exchange dipping into the 60 cents. Anyone with more informed exposure to the markets know if that's fear-mongering or legit?

Got a few u.s. trips coming up this year and wondering if now is the time to stockpile some cash.

[Mitsu3000gt]

Current forward strip (today) from 2 different major Canadian banks is in the 1.30-1.33 range all the way out to 2023. Both GLJ and McDaniel are forecasting around 1.33 ($0.75) over the same periods. Current March month-to-date FX is 1.3357 with the month projected to settle at 1.3371.

I don't think it's going to get that bad personally, but you never know. Unless you are spending tens of thousands on your US trips (and maybe you are), even if it does go to ~1.40 it won't be a a huge incremental cost relative to today.

I don't think it will get much better though, so if you know for sure you're going it wouldn't hurt to stockpile around current rates. It might move a penny or two but that isn't a big deal IMO. If you aren't spending big money I wouldn't worry too much about it - consider getting a credit card that gives you the spot rate on FX transactions if you don't already have one.

[JRSC00LUDE]

That's the kind of information I was after, thanks.

[blownz]

I do a decent amount of FX at work and get daily emails from my banks FX group. For the next 0-3 months they see it in the 1.32-1.35 range so close to where we are now.

I have been kicking myself personally that I didn't buy more USD earlier as I have about $5K on my USD visa due in a few weeks from my recent trip to California and only ~$1K in my USD account.

My banker does say there is more upside risk right now so if you are looking short term, maybe buy now, but longer term try to buy on a dip. It seems to move up and down quite a bit lately.

[Buster]

Good luck with Fx predictions.

Just exchange dollars when you need them and don't bother speculating.

[bjstare]

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Good luck with Fx predictions.

Haha that's what I was thinking. If anyone finds a way to crack the nut, lmk. I'd love to just trade FX and quit my day job.

[Mitsu3000gt]

I don't think he's expecting anyone to do anything other than give him more information than what he came in with to help him make an informed decision. Obviously nobody can predict precisely what is going to happen.

[blownz]

Here is what my banker sent me:


Not sure what Scotia Bank knows or think they know that others don't, but if you trust them, buy later. Otherwise everyone is predicting this year to be similar to where it is now.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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I don't think he's expecting anyone to do anything other than give him more information than what he came in with to help him make an informed decision. Obviously nobody can predict precisely what is going to happen.

Exactly, thanks. Looks like a stable year within a few points either way which is all I was wondering. No massive speculation of diving into the 0.60's.