2019 Canadian Federal Election thread - polls and discussion.

[ExtraSlow]

So, the federal election is Monday October 21, 2019.
Current polling has the Liberals and Conservatives roughly tied in projected seat count with the Conservative party holding a tiny edge. 170 seats are required for a majority.
Screenshot_20190423-164432_Chrome.jpg

Obviously there's a long time before the election and a lot can change.

One of my favourite things about the federal election is the volume of polls is higher, so the aggregated projections should be higher quality.

[jltabot]

I already got a text today from Sarah the conservative, asking for support. Man, they're starting early.

[sabad66]

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So, the federal election is Monday October 21, 2019.
Current polling has the Liberals and Conservatives roughly tied in projected seat count with the Conservative party holding a tiny edge. 170 seats are required for a majority.

surprised they are so close with the recent scandal. Would have thought Conservatives would have a significant edge and into majority territory at this point with it being still somewhat fresh. Still early but hopefully canadians have good memories come Oct 21.

[ExtraSlow]

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surprised they are so close with the recent scandal. Would have thought Conservatives would have a significant edge and into majority territory at this point with it being still somewhat fresh. Still early but hopefully canadians have good memories come Oct 21.

Well, Liberals we're solidly ahead before so conservative party had big gains. Wonder if of those gains are sustainable?

[lasimmon]

Libs will kil TMX in September and in doing so win a ton of support in BC and elsewhere. Which will get them re-elected.

[Buster]

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Libs will kil TMX in September and in doing so win a ton of support in BC and elsewhere. Which will get them re-elected.

short term pain for long term gain. we'd see an immediate and serious move for Alberta separation or some sort of deconstruction of Confederation. something that I think should happen anyway - so the Liberals really fucking it up would almost be wortwhile.

[ExtraSlow]

Has anyone seen any recent polling out of BC about shifting public attitudes towards TMX? I feel like the high local fuel prices will slowly raise popularity of the pipeline. Although that's just a guess.

[killramos]

I thought most British Columbians were actually supportive of the pipeline. It’s just the autism in Vancouver and Burnaby along with traditional anti business places like Victoria or Nanaimo.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4624611

[HiTempguy1]

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short term pain for long term gain. we'd see an immediate and serious move for Alberta separation or some sort of deconstruction of Confederation. something that I think should happen anyway - so the Liberals really fucking it up would almost be wortwhile.

One can only hope.

[dirtsniffer]

Wrong thread..

[phreezee]

PEI goes blue but I fear a Lib+Green coalition on 1st vote.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/princ...rity-1.5108261

[Misterman]

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surprised they are so close with the recent scandal. Would have thought Conservatives would have a significant edge and into majority territory at this point with it being still somewhat fresh. Still early but hopefully canadians have good memories come Oct 21.

The Provincial polls showed a close race between UCP and NDP, despite the mass anger towards the NDP in Alberta. Look how that turned out. I feel the Federal election will go somewhat similarly.

[ExtraSlow]

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The Provincial polls showed a close race between UCP and NDP, despite the mass anger towards the NDP in Alberta. Look how that turned out. I feel the Federal election will go somewhat similarly.

The polls were extremely accurate.

[killramos]

People have a VERY hard time reconciling popular vote polls with seat counts.

[ThePenIsMightier]

My prediction as of April 24, 2019:
West votes virtually the same and makes no difference.
Ontario fails to massively vote Conservative, much to everyone's surprise, and piles of Liberals hold onto their seats. Pollsters quietly shrink into the darkness while no one remembers to question their massive inaccuracy after "it was so clear" that Ontario would lean Conservative "because they elected Ford" etc etc.
NDP get SMOKED in Quebec compared to last election and 65% of their lost seats go to BQ while the other 35% go to Justin and the election is over with enough Liberals in ON & PQ to seal the deal.
Atlantic Canada doesn't sweep Liberal (as it did in 2015) but still thoroughly Liberal and maybe a pop up Green or Independent or some fringe nonsense. Little to no Conservative gains in Atlantic.

We'll see... I'm not looking to debate my position for the next several months, I just figured I'd toss a loose prediction in.

[sabad66]

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Libs will kil TMX in September and in doing so win a ton of support in BC and elsewhere. Which will get them re-elected.

plot twist: pipeline fully approved, shovels in the ground a month before election, alberta votes red

[Stuart]

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short term pain for long term gain. we'd see an immediate and serious move for Alberta separation or some sort of deconstruction of Confederation. something that I think should happen anyway - so the Liberals really fucking it up would almost be wortwhile.

You are so delusional, just because you and HiTemp think this is a good idea does not mean the rest of the province is up for your treason.

[killramos]

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plot twist: pipeline fully approved, shovels in the ground a month before election, alberta votes red

Trudeau could felate half the electorate and pay them for the privilege, and Alberta still wouldn’t vote for him.

It’s amazing we have gotten to the point where the government approving a slam dunk project is something we need to be thankful to the Liberals for.

[ExtraSlow]

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It’s amazing we have gotten to the point where the government approving its own project is something we need to be thankful to the Liberals for.

Ftfy

[2Legit2Quit]

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PEI goes blue but I fear a Lib+Green coalition on 1st vote.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/princ...rity-1.5108261

I'd be surprised if the Libs and Green team up, the red party is in bad ways with the entire island presently due to the now former premier.