Quantcast
Mistake to buy a gas powered vehicle these days? - Beyond.ca - Car Forums
Page 1 of 9 1 2 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 164

Thread: Mistake to buy a gas powered vehicle these days?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    .
    My Ride
    .
    Posts
    742
    Rep Power
    15

    Default Mistake to buy a gas powered vehicle these days?

    I was chatting with some friends on this and was wondering what opinion of Beyond was on the influence of the emerging electric market, as well as the impending automation that will happen on the used car market.

    Is the car market for gas powered cars a ticking time bomb - I imagine upcoming government incentives to push electric, combined with the emerging automation is going to leave a glut of used gasoline cars in the next decade.

    Am I getting ahead of myself here with how fast this change will take place? Opinions?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Calgary
    My Ride
    A slow bike & an even slower car.
    Posts
    6,217
    Rep Power
    24

    Default

    The pace of change will be quick, but the odds of gas-powered vehicles becoming obsolete in the next 15-20 years are low. There's massive infrastructure that needs to be developed to suit electric cars, not to mention inherent limitations placed on them due to the current state of batteries.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta
    My Ride
    2016 MB C450
    Posts
    8,102
    Rep Power
    25

    Default

    If 1 cycle of car ownership is 4 years, I expect EV to be on PAR with ICE in 1 cycle and it will be cheaper than ICE and 0 compromises in 2.

    This is only if trade war doesn't turn into real wars. China has stopped shipment of rare metal to US and this will stall the green movement a bit.

    I think the right ICE car could become collectible.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 05-31-2019 at 03:58 PM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Nowhere
    Posts
    6,804
    Rep Power
    21

    Default

    ...
    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-18-2019 at 04:53 PM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta
    My Ride
    2016 MB C450
    Posts
    8,102
    Rep Power
    25

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sugarphreak View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    On top of all this, if electric cars start to take off... demand for gasoline will drop. Which means the pricing for gas will drop as well. The smart move might be to stick with a gasoline powered car in the long run.
    I think it will be opposite, you will lose economy of scale and you will see more gas station closes and it will be more inconvenient to own ICE cars. I expect this to happen when EV becomes the majority of vehicles on the road.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sugarphreak View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I was thinking about this as well; the conclusion I came to is that unless you have a home charger, it is still a much bigger hassle to own an electric powered car over one powered by a combustion engine.
    Won't be a problem for suburbans with garages. If your house is less than 30 years old, it won't be hard to get 2 dryer outlets to garage to charge 2 EVs. Those fancy charger cables really just to save you from whipping the charging cable out of your trunk daily.

    The problem is urban condo dwellers. If you live off fast DC charging, you battery will degrade much faster. But no condo is going to invest into a paid system per stall.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 05-31-2019 at 04:02 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    YYC
    Posts
    788
    Rep Power
    17

    Default

    I think this will be the last years of the ICE epoch.

    Automation is just arriving-- Waymo has launched live autonomous taxi trials in Arizona (albeit on a very small scale) where you don't need to be a beta tester that signed an NDA to use the service. We will start seeing companies start to scale in 2020. Lyft shares have gotten decimated since their $88 high water mark on the first day of trading, but I think people are overlooking the fact that they announced a Waymo partnership in their quarterly report. Getting autonomous taxis on the road takes huge capital up front, but investors are happily piling cash in and the Lyft/Waymo partnership shows that would-be competitors in the space are happy to team up because the addressable market is truly enormous.

    Autonomous taxis are projected to decrease the cost of rides by 80%, but I think that will take 5-10 years to hit that price point. By that point owning a car will not make economic sense for larger and larger portions of society. I'm sure that Beyond is an outlier demographic wise, but for most people if they can get form downtown to the suburbs for $6-8 instead of $30-40, why deal with parking, gas/power, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc.

    That's before we even get to ICE vs EV. With how many miles these autonomous taxis will clock, and how easy it will be to have them drive themselves to charging hubs, large fleets of EVs will make much more sense on a life cycle cost basis. We haven't even explored how much energy can be saved by having autonomous cars drafting/regen-braking in tandem/etc because the space is so new still.

    I love driving, but it's going the way of horse back riding... soon it'll be a hobby for the wealthy. Middle/lower class kids born now will likely never push a gas pedal in their life time.
    Last edited by Super_Geo; 05-31-2019 at 04:00 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Calgary
    My Ride
    Treg/B7
    Posts
    198
    Rep Power
    0

    Default

    North America has less than 1% electric cars on the road and 2% of current sales. Norway has the highest at around 10% of all vehicles on the road and 50% of new sales. All gas vehicles bought today will be owned and on the road for 10 years. I think when we see 50% EV rates on the road we can assume 10 to 15 years from then Gas will be dying. At this stage I would guess minimum 15 to 20 years of Gas cars still being dominant.
    Last edited by Rarasaurus; 05-31-2019 at 04:27 PM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta
    My Ride
    2016 MB C450
    Posts
    8,102
    Rep Power
    25

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Super_Geo View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I think this will be the last years of the ICE epoch.

    Automation is just arriving-- Waymo has launched live autonomous taxi trials in Arizona (albeit on a very small scale) where you don't need to be a beta tester that signed an NDA to use the service. We will start seeing companies start to scale in 2020. Lyft shares have gotten decimated since their $88 high water mark on the first day of trading, but I think people are overlooking the fact that they announced a Waymo partnership in their quarterly report. Getting autonomous taxis on the road takes huge capital up front, but investors are happily piling cash in and the Lyft/Waymo partnership shows that would-be competitors in the space are happy to team up because the addressable market is truly enormous.

    Autonomous taxis are projected to decrease the cost of rides by 80%, but I think that will take 5-10 years to hit that price point. By that point owning a car will not make economic sense for larger and larger portions of society. I'm sure that Beyond is an outlier demographic wise, but for most people if they can get form downtown to the suburbs for $6-8 instead of $30-40, why deal with parking, gas/power, maintenance, insurance, depreciation, etc.

    That's before we even get to ICE vs EV. With how many miles these autonomous taxis will clock, and how easy it will be to have them drive themselves to charging hubs, large fleets of EVs will make much more sense on a life cycle cost basis. We haven't even explored how much energy can be saved by having autonomous cars drafting/regen-braking in tandem/etc because the space is so new still.

    I love driving, but it's going the way of horse back riding... soon it'll be a hobby for the wealthy. Middle/lower class kids born now will likely never push a gas pedal in their life time.
    I think that tech should arrive just around the time they take my license away....

    6 years ago, I though we would have robotaxi today. In some way, Waymo does have a fleet out there but so far everything is still very beta.

    I think with Moore's law no longer applies, we are still quite a bit from realizing this dream. Especially we don't have world wide cooperation.

    If anything the way the Chinese stats is collecting every bit of data out there, they have way more dataset to traing their AI. They may get there before we do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rarasaurus View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    North America has less than 1% electric cars on the road and 2% of current sales. Norway has the highest at around 10% of all vehicles on the road and 50% of new sales. All gas vehicles bought today will be owned and on the road for 10 years. I think when we see 50% EV rates on the road we can assume 10 to 15 years from then Gas will be dying. At this stage I would guess minimum 10 to 20 years of Gas cars still being dominant.
    Most government has mandate of 2030 or 2040 as end of sales of ICE. So it will be on the road for another 15-20 after that. There is no such ban planned for NA other than BC talking about it. So we may be last to get off ICE.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Calgary
    My Ride
    2017 Civic Hatch ST
    Posts
    9,585
    Rep Power
    26

    Default

    Looking out only decade, I don't think much will change at all in terms of how many purely electric cars are around, IMHO. For complete gas vehicle obsolescence, I'd be utterly shocked if we see it in any of our lifetimes.

    Fact of the matter is that current electric vehicles are more of a hassle when it comes to charging stations (major hassle), winter use, range, etc. and if you're doing it for the environment, that electricity is coming almost entirely from coal in Alberta.

    The next phase seems to be stronger hybrids (performance based not just economy based) and I feel like that is going to go on for a long time before EV's become so popular from major manufacturers that they outnumber gas vehicles - other than Tesla, other manufacturers are barely dabbling in it.

    Stick with gas, in my opinion - even if you keep your car for 10 years. Think about how many new and new-ish cars are on the road right now, they will all be around for way longer than 10 years.
    Last edited by Mitsu3000gt; 05-31-2019 at 04:24 PM.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Nowhere
    Posts
    6,804
    Rep Power
    21

    Default

    ...
    Last edited by Sugarphreak; 08-18-2019 at 04:53 PM.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Cruising the +15
    My Ride
    100% SAVAGE
    Posts
    5,991
    Rep Power
    25

    Default

    Doubt you'd have time to regret it in 14 weeks.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    calgary
    My Ride
    CLK 55 / 2g Eclipse / EP3
    Posts
    3,908
    Rep Power
    15

    Default

    The rural Canadian people will almost NEVER switch out to EV or autonomous vehicles. There will ALWAYS be ICE engines being made, but they will become more rare - just like V12s and V8s have already.

    ICE engine reliability peaked around 2000-2005 but new turbo engines, plus other extreme emission regulations are making newer engine reliability long term, a huge problem. People will want to go EV because of shit like that.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Cruising the +15
    My Ride
    100% SAVAGE
    Posts
    5,991
    Rep Power
    25

    Default

    I think it won't be long before nearly every form of personal auto is some kind of Hybrid or EV. It just makes sense. Even the various plug-in hybrid options have greatly improved in the last few years.

    However, it takes longer than people realize to change over the entire consumer fleet. Decades. So until the majority of new car sales are Hybrid/EV, don't expect rapid change in fleet composition.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    Cowtown
    My Ride
    370Z duhh
    Posts
    87
    Rep Power
    0

    Default

    Sometimes i really wish the government will outlaw normal cars in favor of self driving cars, as much as that would sadden me, it would make everyone safer.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    calgary
    My Ride
    CLK 55 / 2g Eclipse / EP3
    Posts
    3,908
    Rep Power
    15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 370Z View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Sometimes i really wish the government will outlaw normal cars in favor of self driving cars, as much as that would sadden me, it would make everyone safer.
    The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Calgary
    My Ride
    A slow bike & an even slower car.
    Posts
    6,217
    Rep Power
    24

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.
    Disagree. The benefits gained by this shift are enormous. It will absolutely happen- it's a function of "when".

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    N/A
    My Ride
    100% Bow tie
    Posts
    2,576
    Rep Power
    15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by revelations View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    The cost of making 100% of roads 'smart' - this includes all the dirt roads outside the cities - make this a moot point, that will NEVER happen.
    Over any of our lifetimes we have already seen things happen that we never thought would happen at one point in the past. I can only look at my one grandmother who lived to be 97 years old and think of all of the changes she witnessed and experianced during her life time and based on that, 100% of the roads being smart is easily attainable. Now this won't be reached by making physical changes to 100% of the roads/trails out there but will be attained by advances in artificial intelligence that vehicles will get. Case in point, someone I know is currently renting a lowly Hyundai and even it has autonomous keep in your lane capabilities, this kind of capability in any car was unthinkable some 40 years ago and yet here it is in economy cars.
    Moran supreme

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 1970
    Location
    YYC
    My Ride
    2 x E Class Benz
    Posts
    20,843
    Rep Power
    5

    Default

    EVs are still early adopter technology today in terms of cost, it’s just that we have government subsidies to shift that burden to the taxpayer to make it closer to mass market. As recent as 2 years ago, the trend towards price parity due to battery costs was sitting at 2030 but Tesla has been doing a great job at cutting storage costs and accelerating that timeline quickly.

    I consider myself an early adopter, and my next car in the next 2-3 years will probably be an EV because they are fun to daily drive. Honestly, I really enjoy driving Tesla’s, the Model 3 Performance is an absolute blast, would be driving one this cycle if it wasn’t such a piece of crap. So here I am waiting for the big manufacturers to give me better luxury amenities, better build quality, with a shittier drivetrain.
    Originally posted by SEANBANERJEE
    I have gone above and beyond what I should rightfully have to do to protect my good name

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    calgary
    My Ride
    CLK 55 / 2g Eclipse / EP3
    Posts
    3,908
    Rep Power
    15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by A790 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Disagree. The benefits gained by this shift are enormous. It will absolutely happen- it's a function of "when".
    Agree that the potential benefits are amazing:

    - car to car, short range telemetry (hey other car, I am going THIS way, be aware) to prevent collisions, or to enhance range by creating an aerodynamically efficient 'train' of vehicles on the highway
    - definitely reduce accidents cause by driver error
    - drunk driving nearly eliminated completely
    - save so much time for parents not having to pickup kids
    - in shit winter snow weather, the system will ALWAYS know where the road is thanks to smart road sensors which tell you EoP and CL.

    However, even if ALL roads are made smart - it will never be '100%' driverless vehicles on the road. It will be 95%.

    People now drive in 1970s vehicles for pleasure - in the future it will be the same with other models. Some people will WANT to be independent and use self driving vehicles for basic commuting purposes but have non-self driving vehicles for pleasure.

    Motorcyclists will also NEVER give up anything for autonomy.


    Quote Originally Posted by speedog View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Over any of our lifetimes we have already seen things happen that we never thought would happen at one point in the past. I can only look at my one grandmother who lived to be 97 years old and think of all of the changes she witnessed and experianced during her life time and based on that, 100% of the roads being smart is easily attainable. Now this won't be reached by making physical changes to 100% of the roads/trails out there but will be attained by advances in artificial intelligence that vehicles will get. Case in point, someone I know is currently renting a lowly Hyundai and even it has autonomous keep in your lane capabilities, this kind of capability in any car was unthinkable some 40 years ago and yet here it is in economy cars.
    Im actually a little envious as the people living in the 50s and 60s had a very speedy change in terms of quality of life - but then advances in long range transportation speed slowed right the fuck down to where we are today - traveling SLOWER in many cases than those back in the 60s and 70s (esp. air travel). The golden age of air travel, concorde, etc - people had some VERY cool options back in the day (for those who could afford it).

    If you ask someone in the 60s where they thought we would be at today - almost 70 years later - they would be shocked at the stagnation.

    Cars still pollute, use pistons and gasoline and ONLY travel in 2d space - human space travel has been all but eliminated except for the few - coal still powers some of our electricity (or Nat gas). Computers are still dumb in that they have to be told what to do (software) - there has been miniaturization and optimization but no practical AI.

    -----------------------------------------

    Now, what we need is an energy revolution - LENR appears to be the way to go:

    http://www.lenr-cars.com/index.php/technology/lenr
    Last edited by revelations; 06-01-2019 at 10:40 AM.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    N/A
    My Ride
    100% Bow tie
    Posts
    2,576
    Rep Power
    15

    Default

    If you ask someone in the 60s where they thought we would be at today - almost 70 years later...

    Okay, what kind of marth are you using?

    Cuz I'm not in my 70's yet.
    Moran supreme

Page 1 of 9 1 2 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Where to buy legal weed these days.... Seriously.

    By NissanFanBoy in forum Society / Law / Current Events / Politics
    Replies: 93
    Latest Threads: 06-05-2019, 02:14 PM
  2. Don't make a mistake and buy a Jeep....YEAH!

    By spikerS in forum General
    Replies: 4
    Latest Threads: 11-12-2015, 11:46 PM
  3. Replies: 2
    Latest Threads: 10-01-2014, 07:58 AM
  4. Replies: 44
    Latest Threads: 10-08-2013, 12:56 PM
  5. Where to buy roof top tents these days.

    By Redlyne_mr2 in forum Trucks, 4x4 and Offroading Zone
    Replies: 8
    Latest Threads: 07-23-2013, 04:02 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •