Mistake to buy a gas powered vehicle these days?

[speedog]

Btw, I'm a kid of the 60's and cars are way better and way more capable these days. Computers as well and for that matter, pretty much everything. Shit, I don't even have to get to a bank before 3:30pm on a Friday to have enough cash for the weekend like I had to in the 80's.

[revelations]

Its not that there havent been advances - is that there were revolutions in meaningful industries (energy, transportation) back in the 50s and 60s, which we have not seen since.

Yes, you would see things being optimized - thats human engineering nature - but the big shifts have not happened that were expected.

[A790]

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Its not that there havent been advances - is that there were revolutions in meaningful industries (energy, transportation) back in the 50s and 60s, which we have not seen since.

Yes, you would see things being optimized - thats human engineering nature - but the big shifts have not happened that were expected.

• Mobile computing - we now have access to the entire summation of human knowledge in our pocket
• Massive poverty reduction - The % of global population living in poverty has plummeted
• Robotics - entire industries are now manned by machines
• Efficiency - From air travel, commuter transportation, and power generation... we have never been this efficient
• Industrial science - nano-scale devices, graphene, & more that are redefining our world
• Information technology - At a scale simply unheard of in the 60s
• Renewable energy generation - While not yet powering the globe, its scale is increasing and so is its ability; it will be the majority form of energy generation within our lifetimes
• Health - including genetic engineering, human augmentation, & other areas of health science that empower us to live longer, more capable lives

To name a few.

To say that there hasn't been revolutions in meaningful industries is not at all accurate. Look at how cars are assembled today (as an example).

We are also looking at a reality of suborbital flights becoming mainstream, likely within our lifetimes.

The world has evolved more in the past 10 years than it did in the 50 before it. I don't know how anyone could believe otherwise.

[revelations]

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• Mobile computing - we now have access to the entire summation of human knowledge in our pocket
• Massive poverty reduction - The % of global population living in poverty has plummeted
• Robotics - entire industries are now manned by machines
• Efficiency - From air travel, commuter transportation, and power generation... we have never been this efficient
• Industrial science - nano-scale devices, graphene, & more that are redefining our world
• Information technology - At a scale simply unheard of in the 60s
• Renewable energy generation - While not yet powering the globe, its scale is increasing and so is its ability; it will be the majority form of energy generation within our lifetimes
• Health - including genetic engineering, human augmentation, & other areas of health science that empower us to live longer, more capable lives

To name a few.

To say that there hasn't been revolutions in meaningful industries is not at all accurate. Look at how cars are assembled today (as an example).

We are also looking at a reality of suborbital flights becoming mainstream, likely within our lifetimes.

The world has evolved more in the past 10 years than it did in the 50 before it. I don't know how anyone could believe otherwise.

Again, the primary industries that I looked at were Energy and Transportation.

Having an Iphone with apps that allow you to drive distracted now is not advanced. We still make phone calls like we did 60 years ago.
Yes, communications speeds and information dissemination has vastly improved, but our LIVES are still being limited in many ways.
Most people watch TV like they did 50 years ago, glued to their shows. The quality of the image has improved (as in, who cares).

Again, improvements in efficiency is the natural result of 60 years the same thing. Nothing unusual about that.

-We still drive in dead dinosaur-powered piston moving engines.
-We travel SLOWER on average in long-haul travel than 40 years ago
-We still rely on dead dinosaurs to heat and light our homes in many parts of the world

If you lived in the 60s, given the revolutionary advancements of the time - the year 2000 was a time where:

- cities and roads were fully 3d.
- AI servants for all - androids would have been common (instead of a dumb phone)
- we would have colonized moon and mars
- intercontinental travel would take minutes or a few hours at most
- scalable fusion-type energy available for all, in all sizes (compact for vehicles, larger for industries)

[ExtraSlow]

Faster air travel will be a big breakthrough once someone figures out how to do it economically. Clearly current tech uses too much fuel at high speeds, so a new tech will be required, possibly scramjets or something.

[heavyD]

In regards to the OP I feel there are too many people that like to talk of ICE being finished but really it's the golden years where we are seeing the absolute best in ICE engines and that should run another decade or more. I mean it's easy to say you are going electric but what's your options right now? It's really slim pickings and in this day and age nobody holds on to cars more than 3-5 years so ICE is still the way to go for a while yet. A lot of "sky is falling because of climate change" crowd likes to talk but don't have the wallets to back it up (hence the tiny market share of EV) and really today's ICE powered cars are pretty fuel efficient. I'm shocked how good the fuel economy is on my M2 for a car that has what would have been considered near supercar performance 15 years ago.

[spikerS]

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EVs are still early adopter technology today in terms of cost, it’s just that we have government subsidies to shift that burden to the taxpayer to make it closer to mass market. As recent as 2 years ago, the trend towards price parity due to battery costs was sitting at 2030 but Tesla has been doing a great job at cutting storage costs and accelerating that timeline quickly.

I consider myself an early adopter, and my next car in the next 2-3 years will probably be an EV because they are fun to daily drive. Honestly, I really enjoy driving Tesla’s, the Model 3 Performance is an absolute blast, would be driving one this cycle if it wasn’t such a piece of crap. So here I am waiting for the big manufacturers to give me better luxury amenities, better build quality, with a shittier drivetrain.

I believe there are 2 classes of "early adopters"

First is the "Earliest" adopter. That is the person who jumps in with both feet at the very first opportunity. The guys who put down full deposits on the first Teslas without one even hitting the streets. They don't care, they want to be the first. High risk and potential for the reward to be high, or fraught with headaches.

Second is the "early" adopter. The person who lets the earliest adopters experience all the major bugs, and lets them get ironed out before taking the plunge. Less headaches, but they are more tolerable.

If I don't buy my new truck this summer, I am going to keep this one until Ford launches their full EV F150 in like 2020 or 2021. Once they launch it, I will be picking one up. Most of the EV bugs and such will have been ironed out by then, and I don't mind being one of the first people to own one. In this case though, I would still consider myself an early adopter as the earliest adopters have already experienced the big migraines and by then, Ford will have learned from them, and the truck should be fairly bulletproof at that point.

[spikerS]

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Faster air travel will be a big breakthrough once someone figures out how to do it economically. Clearly current tech uses too much fuel at high speeds, so a new tech will be required, possibly scramjets or something.

anything over the speed of sound isn't going to happen due to sonic boom issues. Air travel as we know it is as fast as it is ever going to get.

Sub-orbital flights for extreme distances will be about the only exception to that, and for then, only for extreme distances, IE New York to Sydney Australia and similarly long-distance routes.

[Gman.45]

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Btw, I'm a kid of the 60's and cars are way better and way more capable these days. Computers as well and for that matter, pretty much everything. Shit, I don't even have to get to a bank before 3:30pm on a Friday to have enough cash for the weekend like I had to in the 80's.

But you had Coca Cola in the glass bottles.

[speedog]

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But you had Coca Cola in the glass bottles.

Well that is true and firecrackers and honest to goodness lawn darts.

[Super_Geo]

'The pain is just beginning': After 38,000 layoffs, Wall Street wakes up to 'peak car'

Peak car, shortly after peak ICE, then it's just a matter of time before it's almost all EV.

[rage2]

Surprised it took so long for peak car. The average age of obtaining drivers license has been going up year after year for over a decade. It’s at 26 years old now.

[killramos]

Sounds like the kind of headlines people who have never left a major city come up with.

[ExtraSlow]

Peak car is probably like peak oil. Going to be discussed breathlessly for decades while the predictions keep getting pushed further and further into the future.

And, @spikerS , LOL at electric F150 being available in 2020. Maybe they'll announce it in 2020 for actual availability in 2023 or something.

[Darkane]

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Surprised it took so long for peak car. The average age of obtaining drivers license has been going up year after year for over a decade. It’s at 26 years old now.

Holy crap. People must have freedom, isn’t that what driving is?!

[spikerS]

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And, @spikerS , LOL at electric F150 being available in 2020. Maybe they'll announce it in 2020 for actual availability in 2023 or something.

I wouldn't be so sure. Ford pumped $500 million into Rivian, an EV truck maker, and there already spotted pictures of the current gen F-150 mated to the platform driving around in the wild. While I am not willing to place money on it, I could envision a world where it is launched late 2020. Granted that might be a little ambitious, but if not 2020, then 2021 for sure. I think 2023 would be too late to the market for them.



And another explaining how there is another F150 mated to the Rivian platform
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/13/...ts-ford-f-150/

[rage2]

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Holy crap. People must have freedom, isn’t that what driving is?!

Guess internet replaced that haha. Who needs to go out and see shit when you have Instagram?

[ExtraSlow]

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I wouldn't be so sure. Ford pumped $500 million into Rivian....

Yeah, they are working on it, but the idea it'll available that soon is crazy.

[revelations]

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anything over the speed of sound isn't going to happen due to sonic boom issues. Air travel as we know it is as fast as it is ever going to get.

Thats not correct:

- supersonic biz jets are coming soon
- many of these have modified sonic booms (quiet) and are looking for over-land flights certification
- the others will be oceanic

Wiki:

In November 2015, Flexjet confirmed that they had placed a firm order valued at $2.4 billion for twenty Aerion AS2s, with delivery to begin in 2023.[2]

Flexjet CEO Kenn Ricci said the company would use the supersonic jet for overseas flights and also in China, which does not have restrictions on sonic booms.

Ricci noted that, with the aircraft traveling at Mach 1.2, its boom would not reach the ground, possibly allowing regulators to permit supersonic flight over land.

[spikerS]

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Thats not correct:

- supersonic biz jets are coming soon
- many of these have modified sonic booms (quiet) and are looking for over-land flights certification
- the others will be oceanic

Wiki:

Well, I won't pretend to understand the physics behind it, but if they can figure out how to mute a sonic boom, that would totally make me geek out.

- - - Updated - - -

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Yeah, they are working on it, but the idea it'll available that soon is crazy.

maybe, but I am sure they were working on it before the investment into Rivian, and they already have test mules out in the wild...again, I don't think it would be all that crazy. Like I said, late 2020 is probably really ambitious, but I would be surprised if it wasn't released in 2021 as a MY 2022.