Trump, his bullshit never stops

[sabad66]

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There's not enough support in the Senate to impeach anyway, so regardless of whether or not the House votes to impeach, that's where it dies.

Waste of time. The Democrats need to find a way to get their shit together for 2024 since there's zero chance they will beat Trump next fall.

Senate does not impeach, Senate has the trial and then removes if they find him guilty. You're right about the 2/3 majority required and that it won't happen.

I never said he would be removed. I'm thinking he'll be impeached but not removed (same as Bill Clinton).

I wonder if the Senate would even start the trial if House impeaches? Unless it's constitutionally required, i could totally see Mcconell not even bothering to start the trial just as a big fuck you to the democrats.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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anyone catch this week's episode of US Politics? Crazy how fast this happened... 2+ years for the whole Mueller thing, but then all this materialized in like 1 week. Very interesting to watch the developments on this one.

Any bets on if the House will impeach? I'm thinking yes this time.

He won't get impeached, and even if he does, we are still left with Mike Pence. You need 2/3 of the senate to do that and there is essentially a 0% chance of that passing with the current senate. The reason they opened the impeachment inquiry is because it allows them much easier access to information, and the courts take a back seat which speeds things up a lot. They can extract the maximum amount of "dirt" (which is not hard to come by lol) before the 2020 elections. SDNY also was successful in forcing his Financial records to be released, though I am not sure exactly when that is happening. Keep in mind earlier on in his presidency he prioritized the appointment of 6 personal tax lawyers AHEAD of appointing an attorney general for the country - he really, really, really, doesn't want people to see his financials.

The other reasons it would be terrible if he got impeached is that first of all, Pence could then pardon him for Federal crimes (but not state, and he has some nasty charges at the state level). But, he just threw Pence under the bus in this Ukraine debacle, so maybe he wouldn't haha. The second reason it would be very bad is because there is a 99.9999% chance it would fail, and then the Republicans will ride that wave all the way into 2020 "look at me, the democrats tried to impeach but they couldn't....."

The republicans also accidentally sent the democrats their strategy on how to "spin" the Ukraine story and how to hide certain information (the stored the transcripts on classified servers which is not standard protocol), and tried to redact the email an hour later - the incompetence is stunning. These are the same people who during the Mueller investigation, sent Word documents with track changes available (so everyone could see the redacted portions) instead of a PDF hahaha.

The impeachment process basically looks like this:

1) Inquiry launched (which is what gives the House easier access to evidence, subpoena power, and the ability to enforce those subpoenas. Also the slow court system takes a back seat.)
2) House votes to impeach, and if it passes, the president is technically impeached at that point but it's not over yet
3) The Senate holds a trial to review the evidence, but since it's a Republican majority senate, the evidence could be a video of Trump assaulting a baby and they wouldn't care.
3) The Senate votes whether or not to convict the president, where you need a 2/3 majority, and here is where it will fail if it's brought fourth. If 2/3 vote passes he's removed, if not, he isn't.

The only thing current Republican senators need to be concerned about now is their re-election - many of them are starting to distance themselves from Trump because several years down the road, you don't want to be known as someone who supported Trump when all the dust settles.

Best case scenario for the country is for the impeachment inquiry to dig up even more of his crimes, and he is voted out in 2020, unable to be pardoned by Pence and before the statute of limitation runs out on some of his crimes.

[ExtraSlow]

Incompetent, or having these "leaks" on purpose to control the news cycle and ensure voter apathy? Is it the Columbo system?

[sabad66]

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He won't get impeached, and even if he does, we are still left with Mike Pence. You need 2/3 of the senate to do that and there is essentially a 0% chance of that passing with the current senate. The reason they opened the impeachment inquiry is because it allows them much easier access to information, and the courts take a back seat which speeds things up a lot. They can extract the maximum amount of "dirt" (which is not hard to come by lol) before the 2020 elections. SDNY also was successful in forcing his Financial records to be released, though I am not sure exactly when that is happening. Keep in mind earlier on in his presidency he prioritized the appointment of 6 personal tax lawyers AHEAD of appointing an attorney general for the country - he really, really, really, doesn't want people to see his financials.

The other reasons it would be terrible if he got impeached is that first of all, Pence could then pardon him for Federal crimes (but not state, and he has some nasty charges at the state level). But, he just threw Pence under the bus in this Ukraine debacle, so maybe he wouldn't haha. The second reason it would be very bad is because there is a 99.9999% chance it would fail, and then the Republicans will ride that wave all the way into 2020 "look at me, the democrats tried to impeach but they couldn't....."

The republicans also accidentally sent the democrats their strategy on how to "spin" the Ukraine story and how to hide certain information (the stored the transcripts on classified servers which is not standard protocol), and tried to redact the email an hour later - the incompetence is stunning. These are the same people who during the Mueller investigation, sent Word documents with track changes available (so everyone could see the redacted portions) instead of a PDF hahaha.

The impeachment process basically looks like this:

1) Inquiry launched (which is what gives the House easier access to evidence, subpoena power, and the ability to enforce those subpoenas. Also the slow court system takes a back seat.)
2) House votes to impeach, and if it passes, the president is technically impeached at that point but it's not over yet
3) The Senate holds a trial to review the evidence, but since it's a Republican majority senate, the evidence could be a video of Trump assaulting a baby and they wouldn't care.
3) The Senate votes whether or not to convict the president, where you need a 2/3 majority, and here is where it will fail if it's brought fourth. If 2/3 vote passes he's removed, if not, he isn't.

The only thing current Republican senators need to be concerned about now is their re-election - many of them are starting to distance themselves from Trump because several years down the road, you don't want to be known as someone who supported Trump when all the dust settles.

Best case scenario for the country is for the impeachment inquiry to dig up even more of his crimes, and he is voted out in 2020, unable to be pardoned by Pence and before the statute of limitation runs out on some of his crimes.

Definition of Impeachment:
Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body levels charges against a government official. Impeachment does not in itself remove the official from office; it is the equivalent to an indictment in criminal law, and thus is only the statement of charges against the official.

Common misconception. I'm actually surprised you of all people didn't know this.

[pheoxs]

This is snowballing incredibly quickly and its glorious to watch. Some of my thoughts:

1) The fact that the 'transcript' yesterday, which was only a recreation based on aides notes, not the real word by word transcript, admits to Trump pressuring Ukraine to use his personal attorney and Barr is pretty damning. Like, you can't argue against something your own staff released.

2) Kudos to whoever this whisleblower is, if you haven't read the complaint to the end you really should. Not only is it incredibly detailed but they fucking cited all their sources at the end. Like full on names, dates, events, corroborating news articles, everything. This alone gives them a huge list of people to subpoena to start with.

3) Republicans have been relatively silent with this, I think its pretty clear a lot of them see the writing on the wall this time. I doubt any will come forward and oppose trump now but rather they'll just sit on the sidelines and let it unfold (as opposed to them trying to fight the narrative around the Mueller report).

4) In the end Pelosi played this perfectly. The Meuller aspect was always going to be a hard sell because the public didn't really understand what happened and the Republicans had plenty of angles to spin it. This is much easier for people to understand and they have significantly better evidence to start things. The whole if you cheat once you'll cheat again thing is true and she played it well knowing he would repeat things over again.

5) Even if the senate doesn't convict it doesn't matter. This will bring so much dirt into the public eye it will damage the republican party significantly and that is what matters for 2020. The democrats badly need to take both the house and senate so they can have a meaningful 4 years to try and undo a lot of this

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Definition of Impeachment:
Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body levels charges against a government official. Impeachment does not in itself remove the official from office; it is the equivalent to an indictment in criminal law, and thus is only the statement of charges against the official.

Common misconception. I'm actually surprised you of all people didn't know this.

My post describes the process accurately - I'm not sure what you're confused about. Impeachment does not mean removal, which is clearly outlined in my post. After impeachment, the president has to be convicted by a 2/3 majority which as mentioned above is where it fails with the current senate.

[sabad66]

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My post describes the process accurately - I'm not sure what you're confused about. Impeachment does not mean removal, which is clearly outlined in my post.

Your first two sentences:

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He won't get impeached, and even if he does, we are still left with Mike Pence. You need 2/3 of the senate to do that and there is essentially a 0% chance of that passing with the current senate.

this implies that if House impeaches, Pence will be president which is not the case. Impeachment is the House portion only. Conviction/Removal is the next step as you have outlined.

I know its just semantics / wording but i think its important to be noted for the history books if a president is impeached even if they aren't removed. A lot of people would say Bill Clinton was not impeached even though he technically was.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Your first two sentences:



this implies that if House impeaches, Pence will be president which is not the case. Impeachment is the House portion only. Conviction/Removal is the next step as you have outlined.

I know its just semantics / wording but i think its important to be noted for the history books if a president is impeached even if they aren't removed. A lot of people would say Bill Clinton was not impeached even though he technically was.

I thought that was obvious, but maybe it isn't. Impeachment has never meant automatic removal and the Clinton example is the one most people probably remember.

[sabad66]

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This is snowballing incredibly quickly and its glorious to watch. Some of my thoughts:

1) The fact that the 'transcript' yesterday, which was only a recreation based on aides notes, not the real word by word transcript, admits to Trump pressuring Ukraine to use his personal attorney and Barr is pretty damning. Like, you can't argue against something your own staff released.

2) Kudos to whoever this whisleblower is, if you haven't read the complaint to the end you really should. Not only is it incredibly detailed but they fucking cited all their sources at the end. Like full on names, dates, events, corroborating news articles, everything. This alone gives them a huge list of people to subpoena to start with.

3) Republicans have been relatively silent with this, I think its pretty clear a lot of them see the writing on the wall this time. I doubt any will come forward and oppose trump now but rather they'll just sit on the sidelines and let it unfold (as opposed to them trying to fight the narrative around the Mueller report).

4) In the end Pelosi played this perfectly. The Meuller aspect was always going to be a hard sell because the public didn't really understand what happened and the Republicans had plenty of angles to spin it. This is much easier for people to understand and they have significantly better evidence to start things. The whole if you cheat once you'll cheat again thing is true and she played it well knowing he would repeat things over again.

5) Even if the senate doesn't convict it doesn't matter. This will bring so much dirt into the public eye it will damage the republican party significantly and that is what matters for 2020. The democrats badly need to take both the house and senate so they can have a meaningful 4 years to try and undo a lot of this

this is pretty much exactly where my head's at.

Although i don't think it's worth dwelling on point #1 as it makes the democrats look like crybabies. It's a valid point, but its all about perception and it just looks petty to moderates. Luckily the full whistleblower report is out so that should get the attention off that piece.

[pheoxs]

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this is pretty much exactly where my head's at.

Although i don't think it's worth dwelling on point #1 as it makes the democrats look like crybabies. It's a valid point, but its all about perception and it just looks petty to moderates. Luckily the full whistleblower report is out so that should get the attention off that piece.

Yeah, the only reason I mention #1 is I think it’s important because Trump can’t just argue it was fabricated as a witch hunt because his own staff released it. The words “Fake news” are harder to apply to your own document being released.

[rage2]

Every Trump hater will just be disappointed in the end. Salt will flow. That's my prediction haha.

[Tik-Tok]

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Every Trump hater will just be disappointed in the end. Salt will flow. That's my prediction haha.

Especially when he's not impeached and claims victory for it, lol. Or even better, he is impeached, not removed from office, and then claims vindication.

[ZenOps]

So when does Trump second term start?

[D'z Nutz]

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Especially when he's not impeached and claims victory for it, lol. Or even better, he is impeached, not removed from office, and then claims vindication.

I could see either of these situations more likely than him getting removed from office. Hell, I think he'll have a better chance of getting re-elected than removed from office haha

[Mitsu3000gt]

He's not getting removed from office. That would be the most shocking outcome, by far. He might get impeached but I'd be surprised if they event went that far - the purpose of all this more than anything is just to expedite the gathering of evidence. The dems aren't stupid, they know the vote would never get 2/3 senate majority and all it will do is give Trump more fuel for his supporters.

Also something I think is rather significant is Trump implicating Pence - by doing so, he is basically giving the Senate a choice of removing him, or losing a Republican presidency, and since it's party over country for life, the latter obviously would never happen. It's just a contingency plan for him.

Part 2 of the Mueller report is worse than this Ukraine scandal, but apparently only ~3% of Americans have bothered to read it so far and only a handful of Republican senators have apparently bothered to read it.

[ExtraSlow]

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apparently only ~3% of Americans have bothered to read it so far and only a handful of Republican senators have apparently bothered to read it.

Why would people read it? They either don't care, or they do care and they already know what thier opinion is. It's literally impossible to not have your mind made up, so you'd just be reading looking for confirmation that a) the report agrees with you or b) confirmation that the report is flawed.

[Mitsu3000gt]

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Why would people read it? They either don't care, or they do care and they already know what thier opinion is. It's literally impossible to not have your mind made up, so you'd just be reading looking for confirmation that a) the report agrees with you or b) confirmation that the report is flawed.

Nobody ever expected them to read it, which is why Mueller's team went out of their way to make very brief summaries specifically designed for public release (no classified or grand jury info, etc.) and they were all blocked by Barr, who released his own "summary" and since it was the first one to be released, it's all anyone read. My only point really is Pt 2 of the report is way more damning than the Ukraine stuff as it includes at least 7 open & shut cases of obstruction of justice served up on a platter.

It's certainly possible to not have your mind made up yet, I think a lot of Americans are in that boat who haven't been following along. From what I've read about Republicans who have "switched sides" as well, not everyone has the same threshold for what the last straw is for them. Also keep in mind there is a huge population of Americans who get their news exclusively from Fox News, so there are tons of people who aren't even aware of the facts (either by choice or by chance).

[JRSC00LUDE]

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So when does Trump second term start?

After the first one.

[Tik-Tok]

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After the first one.

But before the third one.

Trump 2060!

[sabad66]

The interesting part of this is the extent the White House went to hide the details of the call. Just reading in more detail now, but apparently the WH directed the transcribers to file the call in what is essentially the most top secret system that exists which is unprecedented for routine leader to leader calls.