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Thread: Solar Power generation in Alberta - Truly competitive now, or soon?

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenny View Post
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    Would need time of day pricing for that to work where the price differentials were big enough to justify costs. They have one at Niagra Falls where they fill the resevoir at night and release during the late afternoon/early evening high power demand period.

    The Springbank flood mitigation reservoir is 4-5x as big, not sure if there is a big requirement here in Alberta for power demand balancing/management, but would be a cool project to see built.
    It works in Ontario because of nuclear power where they actually pays people to get rid of excess at night.
    https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-p...c-u-s-1.599345

    So promoting night time discount and EVs works in that province thanks to nuclear power.

    But future ain't so bright tho as people got freaked out after a false alert and bring nuclear safety back in focus.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lant-1.5424242

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    I have a client who has a 30kw PV array thatís been functioning since January. As of a week ago he was still not net zero

    Solar has a long way to go

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    TransAlta has completed installation of a 20MW Tesla battery storage set-up.

    https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/co...torage-project

    It will be interesting to hear how the economics work out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyL View Post
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    Wouldn't the ultimate be to use excess daytime power to say fill that drydam flood prevention project - add hydro generators and use that as your battery?

    Excess power - pump water uphill. Demand for power, start releasing the water through hydroelectric generators.

    It's like the dutch people knew how to make this work for hundreds of years and we forgot.
    Yes this is what I think is the best. Demand pricing, some sort of storage medium (whether hydrogen, hydro, using BC, quick ramptime stuff), then build the fk out of renewables. 'Save' the extra renewables somehow and discharge them when renewables are low (low wind, night, high demand days).

    Electrolysis is another one I find interesting. Have a bunch of water, use renewable to make hydrogen, store, convert back to electricity later. Although the world seems to be chasing batteries so there has to be a reason why. Not my area of expertise.
    Last edited by The Cosworth; 08-07-2020 at 07:03 AM.
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    If electric cars gain about 15% penetration, it should provide a useful storage source for existing solar.

    Thing is, it would require that car owners only charge to 70% by morning, and then peak off charge during mid day while plugged in. Which for some, still instills range anxiety whenever the battery is not fully charged every morning.

    Its been suggested that if adoption of electric cars gets to 30% and reverse power your home with your car, you can basically flatten the entire daily electrical demand curve of any city. No doubt China will do this first.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 08-07-2020 at 07:52 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenOps View Post
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    If electric cars gain about 15% penetration, it should provide a useful storage source for existing solar.

    Thing is, it would require that car owners only charge to 70% by morning, and then peak off charge during mid day while plugged in. Which for some, still instills range anxiety whenever the battery is not fully charged every morning.

    Its been suggested that if adoption of electric cars gets to 30% and reverse power your home with your car, you can basically flatten the entire daily electrical demand curve of any city. No doubt China will do this first.
    Actually the UofA in conjuction with something called APIC (Alberta Power Industry Consortium) did a study on different penetrations of DER in the province. Again this was early 2018 they presented their findings so I might be forgetting some. The issue is lack of control of the battery charge / discharge rates. They draw huge amounts of power and the existing infrastructure is worrysome.

    The 'worst' case from a utility perspective in the model area was electric cars and tesla power-walls. Green-Mountain Power in Vermont got around this by owning the Powerwall and being able to deploy them VIA their SCADA control network. Unfortunately the regulatory environment here makes that practically impossible. The people who control the consumption have nothing to do with selling it, so it crosses 2 lines of business. I am curious to see the application with the AUC on how TAU is doing the battery pack.

    http://www.ece.ualberta.ca/~apic/pmw...m.APICHomePage


    Edit: but frankly anyone who tells you they know how penetration of certain DER resources will go is full of shit. All the modeling and pre-thought in the world only gets us so far. Look at Hawaii and Arizona for examples of how the solar penetration went well but still had bumps.
    Last edited by The Cosworth; 08-07-2020 at 08:26 AM.
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  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bytem3 View Post
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    I have a client who has a 30kw PV array thatís been functioning since January. As of a week ago he was still not net zero

    Solar has a long way to go
    Is this residential? That's close to 100 panels and should be producing close to 200kwh per day on a good day (in August at our Latitude). Also how is he defining "net zero"? It would probably be best to use a one year cycle to determine if he's achieved net-zero.

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    "net zero" isn't the only benchmark to determine the value of the project either. Probably for residential installations payout is more appropriate.
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  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bytem3 View Post
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    I have a client who has a 30kw PV array that’s been functioning since January. As of a week ago he was still not net zero

    Solar has a long way to go
    Something doesn't add up here. Either misquoting the size or underplayed the usage.

    Most residential ROI is about 10-15years with NDP rebate when they existed.

    At our latitude, we need higher efficiency cells before it make financial sense for residential unless there is a push to get off natural gas or you want to tell people your EV run off the sun.

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by msommers View Post
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    But seriously, think about it. Considering from a provincial perspective how many megawatts we need per year, and then Sask/Manitoba if we have excess. Quebec does their own thing with Hydro, as does BC. Ontario I honestly don't know.

    @The Cosworth how much electricity does the whole province use in a year? Who or what form generates most of that energy? Aren't there massive transfer lines already built intraprovincial and interprovincial?

    The advances in Geothermal has been eye-popping over the last couple years. Given Alberta is great at drilling with the experience and equipment here, it's perfectly logical to truly consider it.
    Yeah, I'm not saying it's a bad idea... just not a realistic idea. My comment was to insinuate that the East would find a way to fuck us somehow, since that's what they have always done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cjblair View Post
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    Yeah, I'm not saying it's a bad idea... just not a realistic idea. My comment was to insinuate that the East would find a way to fuck us somehow, since that's what they have always done.

    Well, consider the $58M 5MW geothermal plant is close to 50% covered by Ottawa, they sure are fucking us good trying to start a new sector.

    https://www.on-sitemag.com/construct...wer%20facility.

    But cap cost of geothermal is 5-10x of NG. But just like all green energy, you hope to get ROI off lower OPEX.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 08-07-2020 at 10:52 AM.

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xtrema View Post
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    Most residential ROI is about 10-15years with NDP rebate when they existed.
    That is what the salesmen say. I would need to see some examples here because the research i have done, its been 20+ years.

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    How much demand is there for additional electricty in the next ten years?
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestalt View Post
    Im the one with a learning disability....

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by spike98 View Post
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    That is what the salesmen say. I would need to see some examples here because the research i have done, its been 20+ years.
    Carbon tax will accelerate that ROI. Another energy price surge ala 2000s will also do that. Basing ROI on current historically low NG prices is tough to economically run home solar in AB on current gen PV cells. And given 1/2 of your bill is delivery related, even if hit self sufficient with battery storage and such, you only cut you bill by half.

    Quote Originally Posted by dirtsniffer View Post
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    How much demand is there for additional electricty in the next ten years?

    https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/A...d-10-17-19.pdf


    Given this forecast is before 2020 shit the bed, expecting 10%-12% peak growth by 2030.
    Last edited by Xtrema; 08-07-2020 at 11:36 AM.

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    Covid changed the story a bit about where electricity will be consumed. It looks like even poor millenials are ditching the big cities and heading out to the countryside now that they might be able to get reasonable internet through Starlink.

    https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/millen...via-instagram/

    Seriously though, find a nice lot with full sunlight and even if you can't get fast cellular, you can now probably bank on Starlink. Put up 100 solar panels (especially if they start becoming more common at $60 or less apiece for the 100 watters) and you don't even need all that much access to a local gas station (if there is one) We might actually see a resurgence of people returning to ghost towns - even ones without a gas station. Crazy, but it seems to be happening, at least in temperate climates.

    Getting a 12 or 24 volt DC fridge is easy, but the washer and dryer is definitely more difficult to find. HDTV's look like they might be moving to 12V DC as well (or you could just get a 5Volt projector, like that Blackview Max they crammed into a phone). Get yourself a Kandi electric car. Screw the rest of society forever.

    I mean seriously, why even bother converting to Alternating Current?
    Last edited by ZenOps; 08-10-2020 at 07:55 AM.
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  16. #116
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    Its also worth noting: Assuming that as the months drag on, the USA will start to see more disruptions in power grid service due to anarchy and end of the world, looting, rioting, etc.

    It seems that carbon and gasoline will see a gigantic glut, even more so than now. This is not the typical on-tv or madmax type of end that many were expecting.. A generator that runs of carbon fuels to convert from useless carbon to incredibly useful electricity to run an air purifier with UV lamp might be *the ticket* item.

    Peter Schiff (our local 1%er Billionaire) was without power and internet in Connecticut for a few days.

    At $400 a week, your average American cannot afford a lot of things. Including rent and power.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 08-09-2020 at 10:24 AM.
    Combustion engine cars - Bwahaha.

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