Solar Power generation in Alberta - Truly competitive now, or soon?

[killramos]

Havvvvvvve you met diesel?

[M.alex]

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Saw a video recently where some people installed wind at their ranch, because they didn't think they could generate enough solar in the winter. I wonder if there's a case to mixing them. They're fully off grid however.

No, and there's no way with a wind/solar combination they are fully off grid.

Solar capacity factor is like 2% in December because of limited daylight hours and snow.

Wind capacity factor is strong on warm winter days but when it's cold (e.g., today) it's absolute dogshit, basically 0%, because blades stop spinning at cold temperatures, as well as issues such as icing.

[spike98]

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No, and there's no way with a wind/solar combination they are fully off grid.

Solar capacity factor is like 2% in December because of limited daylight hours and snow.

Wind capacity factor is strong on warm winter days but when it's cold (e.g., today) it's absolute dogshit, basically 0%, because blades stop spinning at cold temperatures, as well as issues such as icing.

Disagree, entirely. Its certainly possible to be completely off grid even without wind. You just need storage. An 8kw array on its worst day will give you 40kWh. 80kWh on its best. If you run 100kWh of storage you could run for about 10 days making minimum power. Which is unlikely. Backup 10kw gen for the just in case and you are entirely off grid sustainably. Under $50k (not including labour).

[vengie]

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Disagree, entirely. Its certainly possible to be completely off grid even without wind. You just need storage. An 8kw array on its worst day will give you 40kWh. 80kWh on its best. If you run 100kWh of storage you could run for about 10 days making minimum power. Which is unlikely. Backup 10kw gen for the just in case and you are entirely off grid sustainably. Under $50k (not including labour).

A couple minor things I disagree with you on, there are numerous factors that will affect your power generation from solar, including snow.
But, solar panels tech continues to improve, panels can now produce power even partially covered.

Another thing I disagree with you on is the 100kWh of storage and <$50k total price tag.

Now if I'm completely wrong, I'd love to know the battery system you are referencing.
From my experience a 100kWh system will be >$100k in batteries alone.

A system that you're referencing would be >$150k in parts alone.

[bjstare]

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Disagree, entirely. Its certainly possible to be completely off grid even without wind. You just need storage. An 8kw array on its worst day will give you 40kWh. 80kWh on its best. If you run 100kWh of storage you could run for about 10 days making minimum power. Which is unlikely. Backup 10kw gen for the just in case and you are entirely off grid sustainably. Under $50k (not including labour).

Your model is flawed... an 8kw array on it's worst day will give you 0kwh. And your statement about getting 80kwh on a good day means the system is running at 100% rated output for 10 hours...

[Xtrema]

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A couple minor things I disagree with you on, there are numerous factors that will affect your power generation from solar, including snow.
But, solar panels tech continues to improve, panels can now produce power even partially covered.

Another thing I disagree with you on is the 100kWh of storage and <$50k total price tag.

Now if I'm completely wrong, I'd love to know the battery system you are referencing.
From my experience a 100kWh system will be >$100k in batteries alone.

A system that you're referencing would be >$150k in parts alone.

Just go buy a Hummer EV and you get 200kwh for $150K-ish.

[ZenOps]

http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market...DReportServlet

TVS1 will give an idea of what a modern solar power array will generate in the real world under all conditions. Jeff Bezos might be the man to kill off Canadapost and coal.

[spike98]

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A couple minor things I disagree with you on, there are numerous factors that will affect your power generation from solar, including snow.
But, solar panels tech continues to improve, panels can now produce power even partially covered.

Another thing I disagree with you on is the 100kWh of storage and <$50k total price tag.

Now if I'm completely wrong, I'd love to know the battery system you are referencing.
From my experience a 100kWh system will be >$100k in batteries alone.

A system that you're referencing would be >$150k in parts alone.

525w bi-facials will produce over name plate when producing maximum power. Also a cold panel is also more efficient. Folks are seeing 15% over name plate in the dead of winter with a clear sky at high noon. I didn't factor snow cover because if you're off grid, you have head hight panels and should be maintaining them daily. Same with dirt/dust in the summer. The rule of thumb is to factor 6hrs of generation time during the winter and 8hrs in the summer months.

Regarding storage, its cheap cheap now and you should be able to find server rack batteries for around $350/kWh. The EG4 51.2V 280AH wall mount is about there and UL rated too. You can get cheaper but you may sacrifice on features. That gets you 100kWh for $35k...

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Your model is flawed... an 8kw array on it's worst day will give you 0kwh. And your statement about getting 80kwh on a good day means the system is running at 100% rated output for 10 hours...

That isn't flawed at all. Unless your array is blocked in, it will always be generating electricity so the worst day is always >0kWh. Secondly, i meant what i said about a good day...see quote above. I also didn't say ALL days are good days but in the summer where we have 12+hours of daylight, 10 solid hours is possible.

[bjstare]

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That isn't flawed at all. Unless your array is blocked in, it will always be generating electricity so the worst day is always >0kWh. Secondly, i meant what i said about a good day...see quote above. I also didn't say ALL days are good days but in the summer where we have 12+hours of daylight, 10 solid hours is possible.

I'll use an actual example that's directly aligned with your 12+ hours of daylight and 10 solid hours of production.

Here's a snip from a really great production day a while back on my parents place in the states. It's a 2kW array. This day had somewhere around 12.5h of daylight, and little-no cloud. You can ignore all the actual numbers if you want; it should be pretty obvious why 12h of sunlight and 10h of production typically wouldn't convert into 10h of full rate production. Sure, there might be technology (e.g., bifacial panels vs mono - maybe add 10-15% more production) and panel arrangements that will get better results than this, but it's a pretty massive gap between what you're saying is possible and what I'm seeing IRL.

[vengie]

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525w bi-facials will produce over name plate when producing maximum power. Also a cold panel is also more efficient. Folks are seeing 15% over name plate in the dead of winter with a clear sky at high noon. I didn't factor snow cover because if you're off grid, you have head hight panels and should be maintaining them daily. Same with dirt/dust in the summer. The rule of thumb is to factor 6hrs of generation time during the winter and 8hrs in the summer months.

Regarding storage, its cheap cheap now and you should be able to find server rack batteries for around $350/kWh. The EG4 51.2V 280AH wall mount is about there and UL rated too. You can get cheaper but you may sacrifice on features. That gets you 100kWh for $35k...

I recognize what you're saying, but you're still making a lot of assumptions.

To get a more accurate generation time there are websites that will calculate your anticipated generation window at a given time of year based on your latitude and angle of your panels.

The EG4 actually looks quite interesting. I haven't come across those yet.
Will do some digging on that. Thank you.