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Thread: Alberta turning off the taps. New take - constitutional reforms

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    Default Alberta turning off the taps. New take - constitutional reforms

    So I decided today, that I've lost my effing mind.

    I'm voting green. Hoping that she actually does shut down all oil and gas production.

    Seriously. If it's not crackpot May it should be the Alberta government. It would create a whole new 1970s like energy crisis.

    Everyone but PC's are talking eliminating the industry within 25yrs. I think we should pre-empt that and create a geopolitical crisis on the basis of "climate change"

    All the taps, Alberta supplies its own internal needs only. No exports. Not a drop. Natives can do what they want with the oil on their turf, they're a nation within a nation - let them choose to sell it or not.

    Great Depression 2.0, dustbowl economics. Bennet buggies. Really it would devastate Canada's economy, I think most of us in Alberta know that.

    The USA would throw fits. We are their energy independence. 70% of the Canadian CNG availability gone, 4.1bcf taken from the US heating market. 4th largest oil producer withdraws.

    Imagine the heating costs in Ontario and Quebec. Think you'd be even able to get gas outside Alberta? OPEC, Russia, Venezuela would love us!

    Oh and think - if they can't get oil/gas for heating, you can still buy coal... A lot of those old 1800s homes in Ontario and Quebec still have coal chutes... Imagine the smog!

    Trudeau starts talking PetroCanada2.0. Environmental and resources being provincial jurisdiction - opens up constitutional litigation, constitutional debates and reforms.

    Alberta takes the Hardline approach - give us voting equality, renegotiate transfer payments (including hydroquebec revenues), or the resources stay in the ground as an environmental policy. Climate change is serious business they keep telling us, and we're just doing our part.

    I really don't see what we have to loose anymore. The ROC sees Alberta as the "embarassing cousin" (per notley) and devalues our role in the confederation...

    They're all about telling us we're dinosaurs, and the world doesn't need our oil...

    Blow up the system, hit the reset button and let's see what happens...

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    Well. Technically carbon is just dinosaur juice. Eventually it will run out and economically speaking to maximize dollars squeezed out of it we will have to treat it as such. It will only get harder and more expensive to extract, and lets not forget that the USA is already $185,000 debt per taxpayer for 350 million citizens.

    If the USA decides to simply print $25 Trillion, the debt is gone - But of course the ramifications would destroy the entire financial structure of the earth. I would not put it past the USA to do it, its actually a very likely scenario. I mean they nearly had a president that dropped fire death on citizens - 22 times, so merely printing money must be nothing.

    Can the USA actually produce $185,000 and "work" their way out of debt? I'd be happy if they just paid off the interest on it every year. And to that, Alberta should thank Buzz for burning all that fuel. Thanks Buzz.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 10-13-2019 at 05:12 AM.
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    Its funny, I've had this discussion with friends and colleagues who just can't grasp the absurdity of all but one political party attacking and waging war with THE industry that gave it economic success and will continue to do so. This is your life you're talking about, your liveable wages, your home and property value, your per dollar buying power, but its acceptable to try and hang yourselves? Fanaticism at its finest, and it fucking embarrassing.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TurboMedic View Post
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    Its funny, I've had this discussion with friends and colleagues who just can't grasp the absurdity of all but one political party attacking and waging war with THE industry that gave it economic success and will continue to do so. This is your life you're talking about, your liveable wages, your home and property value, your per dollar buying power, but its acceptable to try and hang yourselves? Fanaticism at its finest, and it fucking embarrassing.
    I don't think Ontario and Quebec have any idea how much of their revenue is tied to Alberta oil and gas... The study I read the other day said 82%.

    So how's that plant going to remain open if you loose 82% of your income overnight? Think they'll heat it for one shift a week at 30$/GJE?

    I've reached that point where I see no downside - just the announcement that we're ceasing production would send the US and Canadian economies into chaos.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyL View Post
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    I've reached that point where I see no downside
    Just because you're unemployed doesn't mean everybody else wants to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kertejud2 View Post
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    Just because you're unemployed doesn't mean everybody else wants to be.
    What's it been 4 elections where the "embarrassing cousin" is the primary focus of the discussion?

    Show me any other way? We get pipeline approval but they ban tankers (but start building new coal shipping facilities and those ships are ok). Feds will never willingly open up constitutional discussions after the meech lake gong show.

    So outside influence is needed. Jason Kenney says 90days we turn off the taps, all the taps because Greta said so...

    Do you think it'll take 90 days for a real Frank discussion to start? Get even half buy-in from premiere wall - and like when OPEC makes a move - it's worldwide news. There aren't even enough CNG and oil tankers to make up the threatened loss of Alberta's oil and gas.

    Show me a better way to resolve it in a timely manner

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    You know, when some asshole bullies me, I tend to do the opposite of what they want.

    Alberta shutting the taps off will hurt them, but they will resent the hell out of us, and will hurt us more.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 04Terminator View Post
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    You know, when some asshole bullies me, I tend to do the opposite of what they want.

    Alberta shutting the taps off will hurt them, but they will resent the hell out of us, and will hurt us more.
    Do they not already resent the hell out of us? The majority of federal parties are actually talking about doing this within 25 years.

    They're campaigning on doing this, it seems reasonable to me that we choose when it's appropriate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 04Terminator View Post
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    You know, when some asshole bullies me, I tend to do the opposite of what they want.

    Alberta shutting the taps off will hurt them, but they will resent the hell out of us, and will hurt us more.
    LOL.

    Your take on federal politics is wrong. It's why you're always surprised every time the Liberals do something you don't expect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyL View Post
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    What's it been 4 elections where the "embarrassing cousin" is the primary focus of the discussion?

    Show me any other way? We get pipeline approval but they ban tankers (but start building new coal shipping facilities and those ships are ok). Feds will never willingly open up constitutional discussions after the meech lake gong show.

    So outside influence is needed. Jason Kenney says 90days we turn off the taps, all the taps because Greta said so...

    Do you think it'll take 90 days for a real Frank discussion to start? Get even half buy-in from premiere wall - and like when OPEC makes a move - it's worldwide news. There aren't even enough CNG and oil tankers to make up the threatened loss of Alberta's oil and gas.

    Show me a better way to resolve it in a timely manner
    If you think that telling companies they can’t make money off their capital investment for at least 90 days, robbing them of billions of dollars of revenue would turn out well for the industry in this province, I don’t know what to tell you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kertejud2 View Post
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    If you think that telling companies they can’t make money off their capital investment for at least 90 days, robbing them of billions of dollars of revenue would turn out well for the industry in this province, I don’t know what to tell you.
    Our federal politicians are telling them they have at most 25 years left.

    I said at the start - whole point is to create the geopolitical shitstorm to create change.

    Think for a second the USA won't react to the loss of it's "energy independence"?

    I think most companies would weather the storm - knowing it's political leverage for a better good.

    But at the same time - it would be the start of the second great depression. Energy costs would skyrocket, fertilizers (mostly CNG derived) be unattainable for next growing season... Food prices would skyrocket due to the transportation and input costs spiking...

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    Last edited by 01RedDX; 09-23-2020 at 11:29 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 01RedDX View Post
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    It's cute that you think Alberta really has the power to do anything of the sort, 2/3 of our energy companies are now foreign owned. Foreign governments, foreign interests, foreign profits, hence the push for more export infrastructure. Canada doesn't see nearly as much benefit as some people seem to think, these entities didn't come here to make Canada prosperous, they came to exploit our resources. Top it off by promoting some grand conspiracy theory about foreign propaganda using their legion of shills online and useful idiots in government and voila! juicy tax cuts and subsidies for them, capitalism for everyone else. The sad fact is China has more power over our "taps" than we do, so why don't you look into how that came to be instead of wasting your time on nonsense.

    Reality is Alberta is able to shut it off entirely. (The limiting exports didn't work so well in courts, NAFTA/USMCA would be problematic too)

    The foreign ownership is what truly makes it work - of course oil companies will be pissed. You don't think they already aren't with inability to export and quotas being imposed? I don't even think we'd get to taps being shut off, US, China and the UN would be putting incredible pressure on Ottawa as soon as it was announced.

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    The US will not end its addiction to oil anytime in the foreseeable future. If we were to turn off the taps, it would be a matter of weeks before tanks were lined up at the border and nukes placed squarely on Canada.

    And I also don't see why we would turn them off, there is definitely enough for at least two or three generations. Unless it was mandated by a global concensus, like France hitting 50 Celsius in the summer. But for sure, we have made it through at least this year. I don't think the US could afford to put Greta on the moon, just from the raw tonnage of fuel needed - but there is at least enough to keep things going for a slow but eventual decline in available dinosaur juice.
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    Last edited by 01RedDX; 09-23-2020 at 11:33 AM.

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    Let’s not forget about pulling Premier Wall out of retirement to get Saskatchewan on board with submarining its own energy industry and telling farmers their fertilizer costs will skyrocket.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 01RedDX View Post
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    I see several contradictions here. First you said "Alberta is able to shut it off entirely" then you said we wouldn't even come close due to "pressure from US, China and the UN" (which goes back to my point about foreign influence) then all you hear is that Greta is a "UN shill" but now you're saying the UN would put pressure on us to get the oil flowing again?
    brinkˇmanˇship
    /ˈbriNGkmənˌSHip/
    noun
    the art or practice of pursuing a dangerous policy to the limits of safety before stopping, especially in politics.

    The whole point is to bring international pressure into the situation. Either we suck it up and deal with what we have now and continue to have it eroded and promised away - or force the issue and improve our standing - show our own country what happens if all those oil and gas wells are shut down as the left is proposing?

    US would absolutely fill Montana and North Dakota with troops. But UN security council isn't going to let them act - Russia would benefit most from the higher prices and quotas. Putin will block any attempt via the UN.

    We have NATO and Commonwealth allies who will keep it from turning into a military invasion.

    But the pressure will be on to resolve the constitutional issues around environment and resources - and getting product to tidewater.

    Just the announcement alone will push energy prices through the roof. How long would it take for the east / central Canada to realize they can't live on hydro alone? Pump gas over 5$ a liter will cause near riots.

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    The US wouldn’t line up troops at the border for a 90 day production stoppage. Their Strategic Petroleum Reserve would replace Canadian imports for more than twice that time (doesn’t even factor in the heating oil reserve in the northeast) so they could easily wait it out with zero effect on supply, and then proceed to remove as much energy dependence from Alberta as possible going forward. We’d already be violating treaties, so they’d be under no obligations to play nice. Hoping to get any investment from anywhere would be up in smoke as well since tens of billions would be lost by the province’s biggest industry in only 3 months.

    Meanwhile Alberta goes $10B more into debt, companies get as much capital as they can out because demand for Alberta oil goes down as the US looks to replace it from elsewhere due to lack of trust. Make it more than 180 days? More than $20B in the hole for Alberta (this is using your ‘zero revenue’ claim), companies apparently being okay with it, Albertans willing to go from still being the most employed, highest paid, and lowest taxes to the opposite of that in half a year.

    Then there’s the whole 25 years thing. The government has never been able to do stuff on time. What makes people so convinced in the competency of the Green Party and NDP that they could fulfill their campaign promises on time? So convinced in their ability you’d rather kill the industry in half a year than even accept managed decline for 25+ years? I thought Albertans were supposed to be business savvy.

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    10 Billion is an interest payment to the USA. Dollar expense is nothing, however - not having fuel to keep an aircraft carrier running is what the USA cannot afford.

    I agree, Trump is not a man to play brinksmanship against. Canada does have a lot to lose, North Korea - has nothing to lose against the USA and everything to gain. However, do not underestimate the speed at which he would militarize a border. Trump knows full well that the USA has waning worldwide influence, and in a worst case scenario where the continental USA starts suffering, he will absolutely cut off all Hawaiian welfare recipients.

    http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/Artic...-per-Hour.aspx

    Welfare report for the USA should be due, I can imagine its more like $32 or $33 per hour for Hawaii now. Hawaiian loyalty to the USA does depend on handouts.

    However, if both France and British say: Global warming, slow down your pumping: Queen will win over Trump every time.
    Last edited by ZenOps; 10-15-2019 at 07:33 AM.
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