Registered User
Peak Car
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pea...d-gm-1.5331971
Definitely worth mentioning if $1 free deliveries (eventually by drone) becomes the norm. Why interrupt a binge session of Netflix or bail on your friends internet connected shooter - with an ill planned trip to the market to get milk.
The idea that was started back in Feb 2005 when you could order /pizza online from Sonys EverQuest II has finally come to fruition.
ADD: Milk chutes are coming back, just like rooftop antennae.
Cocoa $12,000 per ton.
Registered User
I'm a proponent of peak car, especially with ride sharing becoming so prevalent and gen z being so broke. If you look at the link below, we are at record highs for automobile sales so it's not hard to call a top around here somewhere.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1951/
For ride sharing, EVs have way lower maintenance costs vs. ICE, so the only piece of the puzzle there that's missing is battery pack longevity and cost. I think that will get solved in the next 3-4 years.
400-500 mile battery packs that can cycle for 1 million miles are just around the corner, and soon will be cheap as shit if this trend continues (and there's not much reason to assume it'll stop).
So then each taxi can easily drive 500,000km+ the cost just becomes the human, and they'll soon get rid of that too.
When they start rolling out self driving cars to the easy areas (like Phoenix), those geographies will start a secular decline in automobile purchases. It'll eat around the edges of car ownership, and it will continue to happen year over year, and in more places.
PC Principal
Battery pack longevity isn't much of an issue with 2017+ model yea rcars. Most batteries only lose 15-20% capacity after 10 years. Not ideal, but also not a deal breaker.
Registered User
Yup, agreed for retail use, but the average NYC yellow cab drives ~115,000km/year so for taxi services they'll need a couple more advances. Tesla claims 1 million mile battery packs will be coming in 2021, they just acquired Maxwell and a few other battery companies earlier this year.Originally Posted by A790
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https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla...ry-technology/
Maxwell claims that its dry electrode tech enables an energy density of over 300 Wh/kg in current demonstration cells and they see a path to over 500 Wh/kg.
That’s believed to be about 15 to 100 percent better than Tesla’s current technology.
They also demonstrate close to 90% capacity retention after almost 1,500 cycles and their cells maintain their capacity at higher discharge rates and much better than the same cells without their dry electrode.
PC Principal
Very true, but if Tesla is able to deliver in 2021, we are looking at a game-changing technology.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Registered User
This talk is from yesterday, decent exponential tech talk (there are better out there, there are worse). Worth a look if this is new ground.
Registered User
The true beauty of AI deliveries is that the core of a cities needs can be met at off peak times. Literally between 1AM and 5AM on weekdays, one could have a fleet of extremely well lit drones using the streets (at possibly 2/3rds speed limit) to safely deliver any and all necessities for the week.
Charge the drone with solar panels during the day, have it run deliveries at night. Having a hot breakfast delivered to your door is literally what its all about. The dream is near. If the sun doesn't shine that day, you can fire up an extra coal plant for a day or retry non-critical deliveries next day.
Last edited by ZenOps; 10-31-2019 at 06:51 AM.
Cocoa $12,000 per ton.
Registered User
What I always found truly amazing about combustion engine cars: The price never went down, it literally only went up. Every year the auto manufacturers would patent two dozen new parts or fluids that that gave a 0.05% combustion to movement increase on a racetrack that "justified" them raising the price slightly above inflation, every year.
As for electric cars, its literally a copper wire wound around magnets attached to a driveshaft. The only thing they have been patenting on it are better materials for the shaft because the torque is so high it exceeds the highest possible torque specs on a combustion engine. That and of course, the all important battery.
By that rationale a $15,000 Electric car is actually overpriced considering its simplicity in design and handful of patents. But I guess the first makers will have to make a profit before coming down to what it actually costs to produce. China could easily break any trend however, as they do tend to sell closer to cost to manufacture.
Last edited by ZenOps; 10-31-2019 at 06:46 AM.
Cocoa $12,000 per ton.
Registered User
You think that new autonomous cruise system doesn't cost money in parts and development? And the 10 new air bags, heated rear seats, power folding mirrors, power tail gate, etc. Consumers keep asking for new tech.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
You think that new law for back-up cameras because our govt has to nanny those who can't drive doesn't cost money in parts and development?
Good luck trying to sell a car with 10 year old technology. Ask Infiniti how its sales are going.
Registered User
Peak car is coming.... to developed countries.
China and India is where the $ is for the next century, they won't peak for a while yet.
Just look at Tesla, their US deliveries has dropped almost 40% but China and rest of the world just picked that up. Those numbers are why Elon is now rushing Y out ahead by 1 quarter.
Then there's the PSA/FCA merger. They all know peak car is coming.
Registered User
The rate at which EV / Battery technology is advancing is quite interesting. Because it's so rapid it really makes me not want to buy one.
Like buying a Tesla in 2020 and then buying one in 2022 and magically you get 50%+ more range and a battery that lasts twice as long? I'll just sit on the fence and wait for the next generation.
Registered User
'Peak car' happened from 1995 - 2005 in my subjective view.
Thats when designs were generally still unique, engines were generally simple, reliable (not with failing DI and crappy turbos) and the market was not flooded with bloated SUVs as badly.
Manual transmissions were still around and the HVAC controls were still easy and simple to use - not buried in fucking menus.
Registered User
From a residual perspective, Teslas are still ahead of the curve compared to others in the same class and if you drive Canadian average mileage, you can definitely save $2K/year in energy cost compare to cars with the same performance.This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I think Tesla resale to remain high thru 2023 as I don't see anybody else mounting any meaningful challenges to them until then.
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