Percentage of wells that require hydraulic fracturing

[ExtraSlow]

Doing a little research project, and wasn't sure of a reputable source of information on this.
Out of all the rotary drilling rigs in the USA that are drilling horizontal wells, what percentage of them are drilling wells that will require significant hydraulic fracturing? I'm thinking once you cut out some heavy oil in Cali and a little CBM, you are left with maybe 75% of the wells that will be fracked. Does that sound somewhat reasonable?

[mazdavirgin]

I'd say your number is on the low side of things. Pretty much all horizontal wells in the US are being fractured to varying degrees. The conventional vertical wells are a different story. The numbers I am finding for the US are between 90-95% of new wells see some form of fracturing which is pretty much inline with what you see out in the field.

According to the U.S. Energy Department, up to 95 percent of new wells drilled today are hydraulically fractured, accounting for two-thirds of total U.S. marketed natural gas production and about half of U.S. crude oil production.

https://hydraulicfracturing.com/#/?s...nd-opportunity
https://www.energy.gov/fe/shale-gas-101
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/fi...s_produced.pdf

[ExtraSlow]

Okay, I was thinking maybe thermal recovery heavy oil, CBM, geothermal, and other "niche" types might be more widespread. I was to err on the conservative side, but I'll revise upwards.

Thanks!

[killramos]

Considering what you do I assume this is in NA not just Canada.

Number should he higher for NA than Canada, Oilsands and “conventional” here gets a fair amount of drilling.

[ExtraSlow]

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Considering what you do I assume this is in NA not just Canada.

Number should he higher for NA than Canada, Oilsands and “conventional” here gets a fair amount of drilling.

Actually just looking at US market, although anyone who wants to break it down for Canada too is welcome to.

[killramos]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the US was high 90’s for 2019 wells that will require fracturing to complete.

As for compiling this for Canada, that sounds like real work lol

[ExtraSlow]

The accuracy required for this project demands no further investigation. Above 85% for sure, possibly as high as 95%.
DONE

THANKS EVERYONE!

[killramos]

Because you piqued my curiousity I did some digging and for 3844 2019 spuds to date (all spuds) generalized by formation to determine whether it needs fracturing or not I get 53% do require fracturing and 47% do not. This is AB and BC, but I can’t imagine sask and MB are much different and I stuck to formations with more than 30 spuds this year.

I think a big part of that is 938 wells drilled in McMurray likely just as coring wells for mapping.

Interesting.

[ExtraSlow]

Thanks buddy. I'll be wowing 'em with my knowledge now!

[vengie]

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Because you piqued my curiousity I did some digging and for 3844 2019 spuds to date (all spuds) generalized by formation to determine whether it needs fracturing or not I get 53% do require fracturing and 47% do not. This is AB and BC, but I can’t imagine sask and MB are much different and I stuck to formations with more than 30 spuds this year.

I think a big part of that is 938 wells drilled in McMurray likely just as coring wells for mapping.

Interesting.

How do the numbers shift if you remove the McMurray coring/ observation wells?

[killramos]

Oil sands is really not my thing but stumbling through it I see 574 wells classed as OV or OTH lahee class which should be the coring and mapping wells, the remainder in McMurray are essentially SAGD pairs (~180 pairs).

So assuming only the producing sagd well counts quick math says that moves Frac’d wells to 66% and unfrac’d to 34%.

Again. Quick work.